Patriots @ Eagles
Game Info
Kickoff: November 17th, at 4:25 pm EST
Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Betting Odds: NE -3.5, 44.5 Total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Sleeper Spotlight: Mohamed Sanu
New England Patriots
Quarterback:
- Tom Brady (Start/QB1)
For Patriots quarterback Tom Brady volume is king. Brady ranks third in attempts and second in completions this season, so it isn’t a surprise to see Brady is also second in Expected Fantasy points. While he has not been as efficient as he was in his prime, much of that can be attributed to his supporting cast. However, with pure volume alone Brady is an every-week starter for fantasy owners regardless of matchup. This week he draws an Eagles team that has quickly improved
Running Backs:
- Sony Michel (Sit)
- James White (Start/RB2)
- Rex Burkhead (Sit)
Trying to figure out the Patriots game script at running back is an exercise in futility. We can give our best forecast on how the game should play out though. This week the Patriots face a Philadelphia rush defense that has been dominant at times. However, they can be exploited with pass-catchers out of the backfield as they are relatively weak at the linebacker position. Sony Michel has seen plenty of volumes but he should see run blitzes against this aggressive Eagles defense, with press-man on the outside. James White will likely see plenty of snaps as the Patriots will want to spread them out and use the short pass game to move the ball. We know the Pats running back position is productive in fantasy, it’s all about figuring out who will see the work each week and this looks like a White game. Rex Burkhead could be highly productive should either Michel or White miss time but until then he is just vulturing work and cannot be started with any confidence.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends:
- Julian Edelman (Start/WR1)
- Mohamed Sanu (Start/WR2)
- Phillip Dorsett (Sit)
- Ben Watson (Sit)
If the volume is king in the Patriots offense, then owners don’t need to look hard to figure out the Patriots plans at receiver. Julian Edelman ranks sixth with 90 targets on the year, ten per game, explaining his sixth overall PPR points rank. And that volume hasn’t slowed down since they acquired Mohamed Sanu. Sanu has earned 19 targets in just two games, and the secondary receivers have all but disappeared. The Patriots passing game will run directly through Edelman and Sanu, and both can be started every week. Brady is throwing them extended handoffs to move the ball and owners will benefit.
As mentioned, the two receivers above, along with White, soak up most of the available targets in any given week. Phillip Dorsett and Ben Watson will have some moments but neither can be trusted as reliable fantasy options.
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback:
- Carson Wentz (Sit)
Philadelphia quarterback Carson Wentz is in the middle of a rough stretch of games, as his team struggles to find healthy, reliable and productive options at receiver. Wentz has topped 300 yards passing just once since Week 1 with multiple touchdown games once in the previous five. This week Wentz faces the top-ranked fantasy passing defense and this won’t be a week for Wentz to find his groove.
Running Backs:
- Jordan Howard (Start/Flex)
- Miles Sanders (Start/Flex)
Teams gave started to figure out how to attack this Patriots defense and that is by pounding the run. The Patriots have allowed more than six yards per attempt in the past two weeks and surrendered their first touchdown on the ground in Week 9. Eagles coach Doug Pederson loves his committee backfields and Philadelphia is again employing the two-headed attack at the position. Jordan Howard is getting early-down work and leads the team in carries and Miles Sander is getting the pass game work and a decent amount of carries. Currently, just 40 snaps separate the two on the season. While owners cannot hope for big games from either, both are worth starts this week.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends:
- Alshon Jeffery (Start/Flex)
- Nelson Agholor (Sit)
- Jordan Matthews (Sit)
- Zach Ertz (Start/TE1)
- Dallas Goedert (Sit)
The entire Eagles receiver corps has underperformed as a whole, on the season. And this week they face a defense who has allowed just one 100-yard individual receiving game and just one passing touchdown on the season. Alshon Jeffrey and Nelson Agholor are each seeing limited targets and while efficient, neither have been dynamic playmakers so far. The Patriots will be aggressive in taking both away. Jeffrey is a desperation flex play with limited upside.
Eagles tight end Zach Ertz remains Wentz’s favorite target pacing for 130 on the year but just two touchdowns. The Patriots have given up a receiving touchdown to tight ends in each of the last two weeks and the Ravens showed that this defense can be exploited with athletic multiple tight end sets. Both Ertz and Dallas Goedert will see plenty of snaps together on Sunday and the duo will be the key to winning this game. Ertz is a solid option for owners because of volume and gameplan. It is harder to trust Goedert as his talent is immense but his fantasy production has relied on touchdowns, which are difficult to forecast.
-Marc Salazar (@dingwog)
Ok I have in the past taken your advice I sat jarvis landry out on your reccomendation and guess what he ended up scoring 40 points . So excuse me if I pass on this advice.
Why even click the link then? You just come here to post a shitty comment?
It really sucks when you follow someone’s advice, and it doesn’t work out. We’ve all been there. So I can totally empathize with you being upset with how things worked out with Landry.
What I can’t understand is you coming back here to trash Aaron’s thoughtful analysis. Nobody bats 1.000 in fantasy football because there is inherent chaos baked into the game. Absolutely no one predicted Landry scoring 40 points last week because it would be insane to do so without the benefit of hindsight.