Sit/Start Week 11: Reviewing All the Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Bears@Rams

 

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, November 17 at 8:20 pm EST

Location: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA

Betting Odds: LAR -6.5, 40 Total via Oddsshark

Network: NBC

Sleeper Spotlight: Gerald Everett

 

Chicago Bears

 

Quarterback:

• Mitchell Trubisky (Sit)

 

Other than a pair of four-touchdown games surrendered to Jameis Winston and Russell Wilson in Weeks 4 and 5, this Rams defense has given up one touchdown or less to every other quarterback it has faced in 2019, good for the 11th fewest fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position. With as much as Mitchell Trubisky has struggled this year, the Bears have understandably scaled back his passing attempts, as he’s failed to reach 25 attempts in each of the last two games. Coming into the season, we thought that Trubisky had a chance to be a decent fantasy streamer based on his rushing ability. So the fact that he has 14 carries for 54 yards over the whole season is a major disappointment and makes him irrelevant outside of the deepest of Superflex leagues. Don’t chase Trubisky’s three touchdowns from last week, he should remain on waivers in nearly every league type.

 

Running Back:

• David Montgomery (Start/RB2)
• Tarik Cohen (Sit)

 

David Montgomery has logged 73%, 73%, and 60% of the Bears’ offensive snaps over the last three weeks, and has settled into a high volume role. Over those three weeks, Montgomery has received 31, 17, and 17 touches, and is the offense’s number one priority with the struggles of Trubisky. Trubisky is what ultimately caps Montgomery’s upside, however, as last week’s line of 17 carries for 60 yards, no touchdowns, and no receptions are always dangerously in play. Yet when the Bears do get near the goalline, Montgomery is the preferred weapon, as he ranks tied for second in the NFL with 11 carries inside the five-yard line. The Rams running game has been solid against the run, and just stymied the Steelers’ running backs in Pittsburgh last week. Despite the tough matchup, Montgomery’s volume and red-zone role put him squarely in the RB2 range, and he should be started unless you are stacked at running back. Montgomery was limited in Wednesday’s practice with an ankle injury, but it doesn’t appear to be significant at this point.

 

Tarik Cohen is good for four or five targets a game but hasn’t topped 40 receiving yards since Week 1. With a season-high rushing total of 18 yards, Cohen just doesn’t have the volume or explosiveness to be worth a start. In PPR leagues, he’ll get you 4-10 points, and could be used as a desperation flex. But I would much rather roll the dice on a higher upside wide receiver if confronted with starting Cohen. This Rams defense just held Jaylen Samuels to three catches for 11 yards on seven targets, and outside of Christian McCaffrey in Week 1 has done an excellent job against pass-catching running backs.

 

Wide Receiver/ Tight End:

• Allen Robinson (Start/WR2)
• Taylor Gabriel (Sit)
• Anthony Miller (Sit)
• Trey Burton/Adam Shaheen/Ben Braunecker (Sit)

 

You can lock Allen Robinson in for seven or more targets nearly every game, and outside of a Week 9 blip in Philadelphia, Robinson has been remarkably consistent. A big-bodied, physical receiver, Robinson is the type that can corral inaccurate targets from Trubisky and is the focus of the passing game nearly every week. The Rams have been solid against receivers outside of blowup weeks against Tampa Bay and Seattle, and Robinson will no doubt draw plenty of coverage from Jalen Ramsey. While Robinson may not be in store for a huge week, he is solidly in the WR2 conversation based on volume alone. Five or more catches and 60 or more yards feel like a good starting point, and if the Bears find themselves trailing he could benefit from some garbage time bonus points.

 

Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller are both secondary receiving options in a bad passing offense, playing on the road in a tough matchup. Both should be benched in nearly all leagues. They both have some impressive traits, but there just isn’t enough volume or efficiency from Trubisky to support either receiver consistently. Trey Burton left Week 10 with a calf injury and was sidelined in Wednesday’s practice. He couldn’t be trusted even when healthy and should be left on waivers, along with backups Adam Shaheen and Ben Braunecker. You’re better off chasing tight end streamers attached to better quarterbacks than Trubisky.

 

Los Angeles Rams

 

Quarterback:

• Jared Goff (Sit)

 

The days of the Rams’ juggernaut offense appear to be in the distant past, making Jared Goff no more than a QB2 in Superflex leagues. Chicago gives up the seventh-fewest points to fantasy quarterbacks, and Goff has shown a rock-bottom floor against above-average defenses like the 49ers and the Steelers. Goff’s best games have come against defenses like Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and Cincinnati, three defenses that have little in common with this stout Bears defense. About all, you can say in Goff’s defense is he does bring top-end passing volume to the table, as he is tied for fourth in the league with 355 passing attempts. But Goff’s 11 touchdowns rank behind the likes of Gardner Minshew and Jacoby Brissett, and his nine interceptions are tied for the fourth-most in the NFL. The Bears certainly don’t look like a “get-right” game for Goff, even at home in Los Angeles. 

 

Running Back:

• Todd Gurley (Start/RB2)
• Malcolm Brown (Sit)
• Darrell Henderson (Sit)

 

Todd Gurley is no longer the elite running back option he was in the past, due to hits to both his red zone and passing-game roles. Gurley used to be the best red-zone option in the league, racking up touchdowns on the high-scoring Rams’ offense. Not only are Gurley’s opportunities down due to the struggles of the Rams offense as a whole, but Gurley is splitting much more red-zone work than he used to. In 2018, Gurley lead all running backs in carries inside the 20, 10, and 5-yard lines, and racked up 69% of the Rams’ red zone carries overall. In 2019, Gurley has received 55% of the Rams’ red zone carries and has only received six carries inside the five-yard line, half of the league-leading 12 from Dalvin Cook. And after racking up 59 and 64 receptions the last two years, Gurley has had zero or one receptions in five of eight games. While the Bears’ defense has been a below-average unit allowing fantasy points to run backs this year, they still have only allowed two 100-yard games and held both Dalvin Cook and Aaron Jones to less than 40 rushing yards. Gurley is an RB2 with a decent shot at a touchdown, much closer to his opponent, David Montgomery, than his RB1 self from years past.

 

With the Rams full backfield on the field last week in Pittsburgh, Gurley lead with 74% of the offensive snaps, followed by Malcolm Brown at 16% and Darrell Henderson at 10%. With Brown healthy, and in a tough matchup against Chicago, neither Brown nor Henderson can be trusted as a flex play.

 

Wide Receiver/ Tight End:

• Cooper Kupp (Start/WR1)
• Robert Woods (WR3)
• Josh Reynolds (Sit)
• Gerald Everett (Start)

 

I’m willing to give Cooper Kupp a pass for his goose-egg from Week 10 that saw him record zero catches on four targets. His previous performance of 220 yards and a touchdown, while against the lowly Bengals, should earn him a second chance. He’s a back end WR1 or high-end WR2 in some lineups, even against a stingy Bears defense. But Kupp ranks seventh overall in receptions and sixth overall in targets among all receivers over the year, and wide receiver production can be boom or bust, just ask Mike Evans owners. Look for Goff to feed Kupp early and often to atone for last week’s dud.

 

With Brandin Cooks sidelined, Robert Woods took advantage last week during a dismal offensive performance from the Rams, catching seven passes for 95 yards on 11 targets. Secondary receiving options have had some success against this Bears’ defense, such as Paul Richardson’s 8 catches for 83 yards and a touchdown, Mike Williams’ 69 yards on three catches, and Marvin Jones’ 77 yards on five receptions last week. But touchdowns from receivers have been few and far between versus this defense, and only elite types like Michael Thomas and Stefon Diggs have gone over 100 yards. Woods should catch enough balls to be a WR3, but I wouldn’t expect much upside here, even without Cooks for yet another week. Josh Reynolds filled in last week as the third receiver and posted three receptions for 49 yards on five targets. He played 95% of the snaps last week so he will be on the field virtually the whole game, but against a good defense like the Bears, he hasn’t shown enough to be trusted in your lineup outside of the deepest of leagues.

 

Gerald Everett has become the most appealing tight end option outside of the elite at the position and should be an every-week starter for most fantasy lineups. The Bears have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends, though that number is skewed by a Week 9 explosion from Zach Ertz. Regardless, Everett’s 56 targets rank as the eighth-most at his position, and he should be started with confidence. Everett has had four double-digit PPR games over the past six weeks.

-Erik Smith (@ErikSmithQBL)

 

Featured Image by Nathan Mills (@NathanMillsPL)