Sit/Start Week 11: Reviewing All the Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Bills@Dolphins

 

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, November 17 at 1:00 pm EST

Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL

Betting Odds: BUF -5.5, 41 Total via Oddsshark

Network: CBS

Sleeper Spotlight: Mike Gesicki

 

Buffalo Bills

 

Quarterback: 

• Josh Allen (start, low/mid-QB1)

 

Allen comes into week 11 as the QB11 in fantasy points per game this season. In week seven against these Dolphins, he was the QB11 on the week. Allen has been the model of consistency this year, posting 17 or more fantasy points in 7 of his last 8 games (New England game he did not). Miami struggles to generate pressure as they are bottom-six in the league in QB hits, sacks, and pressure percentage. Allen is tied for the lead at quarterback in rushing touchdowns with six and he is second at the position in carries. Thanks to a solid rushing floor and a great matchup, Allen has the floor to be a mid/low QB1.

 

Running Backs:

• Devin Singletary (start, mid-RB2)
• Frank Gore (sit, wire)

 

Singletary has now been in on ⅔ of the offensive snaps each of the last three weeks. Gore, on the other hand, has only played ⅓ of the snaps and can be dropped in PPR leagues thanks to his nine targets on the year. Singletary is the RB11 in PPR leagues over the last three weeks. The matchup is great this week for Singletary as the Dolphins have allowed 10 touchdowns in nine games to running backs. They are also 30th in rush defense DVOA, whereas the Bills offensive line is second in adjusted line yards. It can’t go overlooked that Singletary has been third or better in team targets in each of the last three games he has gotten significant work. I would be happy to start Singletary this week as an RB2. 

 

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

• John Brown (start, mid-WR2)
• Cole Beasley (start, WR3/flex)
• Dawson Knox(sit, streamer/wire)

 

Brown, like Allen, has provided a nice floor week in and week out but hasn’t shown that gaudy ceiling that we have to expect from him. He has 50 or more yards in all nine games and gives or more receptions in 7 of 9. He is 10th in the league in deep targets (20+ yards) and 15th at receiver in overall targets. With all of those deep targets, it figures that he has a blowup game at some point this season. Brown had six receptions, 83 yards, 1 touchdown line against these Dolphins a couple of weeks ago. Beasley has 40 yards and/or a touchdown in all but one game this year. He doesn’t have much upside (under 85 yards every game) but provides a solid floor; you could do worse. The matchup is good for Knox but his role has been reduced with Tyler Kroft back from injury. He has played less than 60% of the snaps in four of his last five games and has nine targets in the last three games with Kroft healthy. 

 

Miami Dolphins

 

Quarterback:

• Ryan Fitzpatrick (sit, low-QB2)

 

Fitzpatrick has been money lately, leading the Dolphins to their first two wins and he has been the QB10 in fantasy over his last four games. That includes his QB7 result against these Bills in week seven. The Bills, however, have allowed the third-fewest points per game and are number nine in pass defense DVOA. The Bills don’t generate pressure well as they are outside the top-20 in sacks, QB hits, and pressure percentage. Unfortunately for Fitzpatrick, the Dolphins offensive line is 30th in adjusted sack rate, struggling to protect him each week. It is hard for me to trust Fitzpatrick in this matchup in a game where the Dolphins are expected to score only two touchdowns. 

 

Running Backs:

• Kalen Ballage (sit, flex/rb3)

 

With Mark Walton suspended, it was the Ballage show in this backfield for week 10. He played 82% of the offensive snaps and had 24 of the 29 running back touches. He had a dreadful 45 yards on 24 scoreless touches. Ballage has a laughable 55 carries for 113 yards (2.1 yards per carry) on the year. Buffalo’s defense isn’t great against the run as they are 27th in rush defense DVOA. However, Ballage is so inefficient on his touches he is only in the flex conversation because of his volume.

 

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends:

• Devante Parker (sit, WR3/flex)
• Mike Gesicki (sit, low-TE1/2)

 

In his first game without rookie Preston Williams, Parker had a team-high 10 targets, four more than Gesicki who was second. Unfortunately, he will be matched up against stud cornerback Tre’Davious White this week. White hasn’t allowed a touchdown since 2018 and limited Parker himself to four receptions on 10 targets for 56 scoreless yards in their game earlier this year. Gesicki has six targets each of the last two weeks and seems to be the number two option in the passing game with Williams out of the year. The Bills haven’t allowed a tight end to go over 50 yards against them this year. Gesicki is a fade this week but has some plus matchups down the stretch. The other Dolphins receivers can be avoided as none of them have more than 11 targets the last four games.

-Kevin Taylor(@ktbeast918)