Jaguars@Titans
Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 24th at 4:05 pm EST
Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Betting Odds: TEN -3, 41 total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Sleeper Spotlight: Chris Conley
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback
- Nick Foles (Streamer)
Nick Foles’ return last week started about as well as it could have. Foles matched the Jaguars down the field and capped off the drive with a 34-yard strike to D.J. Chark for a touchdown. From that point on, the Jaguars offense struggled to move the ball and find any consistency. The Colts jumped out to a lead and drained the clock forcing the Jags to abandon the run. The Jags set a franchise low in rush attempts with eight. Foles was forced into a tough spot coming off of an injury and with little time to feel comfortable with his receivers. When Foles has been on the field, he has been efficient. He would rank ninth in DVOA if he qualified. If he can keep that up, a date with a below-average Titans pass defense should be a good spot to stream Foles if your QB is on a bye.
Running Back
- Leonard Fournette (Start/RB2)
So last week was rough. But as I mentioned earlier, the Jags set a franchise-record low for rush attempts. That will almost assuredly not happen again. Leonard Fournette also was able to save his week catching all seven of his targets. This week’s matchup is difficult (Titans have the fourth-best run defense by DVOA) but the targets give Fournette a floor he hasn’t had before this season.
Wide Receivers
- D.J. Chark (Start/WR1)
- Chris Conley (Start/Flex)
- Dede Westbrook (Sit)
With Foles’ return behind center, D.J. Chark, Chris Conley, and Dede Westbrook all played 95% of snaps for the Jags. Jacksonville looks to have settled on their top three receivers and in the negative game, the script ran with at least three wide all game. Chark is having a true breakout year. He is 15th in DYAR and 21st in DVOA at the WR position. Foles knew this and was locked on Chark, who led the NFL in targets (15) and air yards (218) last week. That should quell any concerns about Chark without Gardner Minshew. Conley might be set up to pop down the stretch. He has played with Foles while they were both in Kansas City. Conley is quietly ninth in the NFL in aDOT (14.8 yards) and seventh in YAC/R differential. Against subpar Titans pass defense, Conley is a solid option as a flex if you have bye week issues. Westbrook is still the primary slot, which has historically been a productive piece in a Foles offense. He has not found any consistency, but that could change moving forward and is something to keep an eye on.
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback
- Ryan Tannehill (Sit)
If you asked me whether I would be seriously discussing Ryan Tannehill as a fantasy option before the season started, I would have laughed. Insert Paul Rudd meme. Tannehill has stepped it up and performed at a level no one could have predicted. Tannehill has not hit the minimum pass attempts to qualify (only started four games) for the following statistics, but if he did, he would rank: first in completion percentage over expectation, fourth in intended air yards per pass (9.6 yards), 10th in DVOA, and 20th in QBR. For a backup QB, that is an incredible run. The Jags have the 11th pass defense by DVOA, so I am avoiding Tannehill this week but he is a legitimate streaming option week to week.
Running Back
- Derrick Henry (Start/RB1)
Derrick Henry truthers can finally rub it in everyone’s faces. Henry has been the monster all season that used to only show up in glimpses. The Titans have built their offense around him and dedicate at least 15 touches per week. This week should be no different. The Jaguars run defense has steadily declined all year and they now rank 30th by DVOA. Just last week, Marlon Mack and Jonathan Williams were both able to top 100 yards rushing. Most of you Henry owners are probably salivating at a repeat of his performance against the Jags last year. I can’t sit here and predict that again, but Henry is a clear RB1 this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight End
- Corey Davis (Sit)
- A.J. Brown (Sit)
- Jonnu Smith (Sit)
- Delanie Walker (Injury?)
So we have established that Henry is the basis of the Titans offense and Tannehill has been playing efficiently, so how do these pass catchers fit in. Looking at some of the numbers, the Titans game plan for their passing attack comes into focus. A.J. Brown is fourth in the NFL in average YAC over expectation. Corey Davis is 18th in the same category. Jonnu Smith is third (just above Brown) in the entire NFL and the top TE. The Titans are trying to scheme easy throws for Tannehill that allow his pass catchers to do the dirty work. They even stick to this philosophy with the screens they run at least once a game with Henry. The issue is that there hasn’t been any consistency with Tannehill’s passing totals and this sets up as a clear Henry game. We also are unaware of Delanie Walker’s status this week, though he did say that he thinks he could play this week. Walker’s presence all but eliminates Smith’s fantasy value going forward.
-Frank Costanzo (@FrankQBList; Reddit: Zzzonked92)
The defense has allowed 74 combined points over the last three weeks, so there could be some rust building upon this hot rod of a defense ????????
Ravens did all the damage, Dak is not Lamar.