Ravens@Rams
Game Info
Kickoff: Monday, November 25th at 8:15 pm EST
Location: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
Betting Odds: BAL -3, 46.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: ESPN
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback
- Lamar Jackson (Start/QB1)
Do I even need to write about Lamar Jackson? What else is there to say about the potential MVP? I’ll let the numbers for Jackson and the Ravens offense tell the story. Jackson is third in QBR (which takes rushing into account), eighth in DYAR, seventh in DVOA, and eighth in average intended air yards (9.1 yards). The Ravens offense is fifth in passing DVOA, first in rushing DVOA (I mean duh lol) and third in overall offensive DVOA. It looks like having a long term plan for your first round QB and sticking to it works! The Rams defense is top-three against the run, so Jackson will need to rely on the pass a bit more this week. Or he can just do something that no other human can do in the open field again. Whichever works.
Running Backs
- Mark Ingram (Start/RB2)
- Gus Edwards (Sit)
Mark Ingram has been having a resurgent season with the Baltimore Ravens. Showing he can still handle a full workload, Ingram is fifth in DYAR and third in DVOA. Thanks, Lamar. The Rams boast the third-best run defense, so Ingram will need to see some more targets like he did last week (a season-high four). It’s not the best matchup for Ingram, but the offense has been rolling so he should be able to at least hit his floor. Gus Edwards has also been effective when he is out there for the Ravens. He is a premier handcuff and is start-able in a pinch in the right matchup (positive game scripts or terrible run defenses). This likely isn’t one of those weeks.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
- Hollywood Brown (Start/Flex)
- Mark Andrews (Start/TE1)
Notice how the header is singular? There are only two pass catchers that can be trusted for fantasy in the Ravens offense. Last week, seven different players had two to four targets, with none more than four. Hollywood Brown and Mark Andrews both hit the four targets. Brown relies on big plays to make his fantasy living and with the Ravens likely leaning on the pass this week, he’s a decent gamble if you need some upside in your lineup. Mandrews has been Jackson’s favorite target all season and might be the TE1 this week with all the bye weeks and injuries to the position. No need to get cute this week.
Los Angeles Rams
Quarterback
- Jared Goff (Sit)
What a nightmare of a season this is becoming for Jared Goff. He is missing multiple offensive linemen and pass-catchers, but he is not helping himself out either. Goff ranks 21st in DYAR (sandwiched between Case Keenum and Ryan Fitzpatrick), 28th in QBR, 21st in DVOA, and dead last in completion percentage over expectation (with QBs with less than 150 passing attempts removed). Dead last. He is completing 6.4% fewer passes than he should have. If Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks do not return this week, the nightmare will continue against a hot Ravens defense. Since the trade for Marcus Peters, the Ravens have forced the second-lowest passer rating in the NFL. Avoid Goff at all costs this week.
Running Back
- Todd Gurley (Start/RB2)
With all the worry about Todd Gurley coming into the year, he hasn’t been that bad. Worth the first or second-rounder? No, but he’s been a serviceable RB2. He is 14th in DYAR and 15th in DVOA. His main issue has been the Rams’ decision to not give him his usual workload, but that seems to be changing. Last week, the Rams fed Gurley 25 rushing attempts. That was by far his highest of the season. With Goff continuing to struggle and the receivers being injured, the Rams might be refocusing the offense around Gurley. This would be a great week for that as well with the Ravens strong pass defense but below-average run defense (25th by DVOA). Gurley should provide a solid performance this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight End
- Cooper Kupp (Start/WR2)
- Robert Woods (Returning?)
- Brandin Cooks (Start/Flex)
- Josh Reynolds (Sit)
- Gerald Everett (Sit)
Let’s begin with Cooper Kupp, who is the only pass catcher that we can be sure is in the lineup come Monday. Kupp only had three targets last week with Goff throwing 16 times and he has shown a low floor that was not present earlier this season. It’ll be tough for any WR to perform when the offense throws the ball 16 times and it sure feels like the Rams will want to limit Goff going forward. Kupp certainly can still perform, he is 11th in YAC over expectation. It is just a risky proposition for all Rams pass catchers, so I have him as a WR2. Robert Woods missed last week’s game for personal reasons and there have been no updates on his status for this week. Sean McVay said there may be some updates later in the week so keep an eye out. Brandin Cooks has missed the past few weeks with a concussion, but McVay is optimistic that Cooks can go. It’s tough to trust this passing game against the Ravens and we don’t know how Cooks is going to look. So I have him as a flex, but I would try to hold off starting him if I had other options. Josh Reynolds’ fantasy value is completely determined by whether the prior two receivers play, but if they don’t I still would avoid in this matchup. Gerald Everett disappointed last week when the Rams only put him on the field for 14 snaps and eight routes. He was more limited by his wrist than was led on. The Ravens are stingy against the TE position, so I would be avoiding him where I can.
-Frank Costanzo (@FrankQBList; Reddit: Zzzonked92)
The defense has allowed 74 combined points over the last three weeks, so there could be some rust building upon this hot rod of a defense ????????
Ravens did all the damage, Dak is not Lamar.