Sit/Start Week 12: Reviewing All the Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Dolphins@Browns

 

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, November 24th at 1:00 pm EST

Location: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH

Betting Odds: CLE -10.5, 44.5 total via Oddsshark

Network: FOX

Sleeper Spotlight: Patrick Laird

 

Miami Dolphins

 

Quarterback:

• Ryan Fitzpatrick (start, mid-QB2)

 

Fitzpatrick has been solid lately, leading the Dolphins to their first two wins. He has been the QB10 in fantasy over his last five weeks. The Browns have generated pressure well this year, top-10 in pressure percentage and sacks but have a lot of issues for this game. Studs Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi are suspended and pass rusher Olivier Vernon may not be back from injury. The Browns also put starting safety Morgan Burnett on injured reserve this week. It is fair to think the Browns won’t generate much pressure against Fitzpatrick. Unfortunately for Fitzpatrick, the Dolphins offensive line is 30th in adjusted sack rate, struggling to protect him each week. The Browns should have no trouble scoring against this poor defense, meaning that Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins will be throwing the ball plenty and may lead to a high-scoring game. Fitzpatrick is a good two-quarterback league play and an okay streamer this week.

 

Running Backs:

• Kalen Ballage (sit, flex/rb3)
• Patrick Laird (sit, bench)

 

Ballage has been the feature back for the Dolphins over the last two games. He has played 82 and 77 percent of the offensive snaps over the last two games. Don’t let his touchdown last week fool you, He has been horrible over the last two weeks. He has 29 carries for 52 yards and nine receptions for 10 yards over that span. Patrick Laird severely outplayed him, gaining 58 yards on his seven touches (6 receptions) last week. He saw his snap share jump from 12 to 23 percent last week. With Ogunjobi and Garrett out this week, the matchup is good for these two. The problem is the Dolphins offensive line is dead last in adjusted line yards. They have struggled to open holes all year. It is hard to trust any of these guys for this game. 

 

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends:

• Devante Parker (start, WR2/3)
• Mike Gesicki (start, low-TE1/2)

 

In his two games without rookie Preston Williams, Parker has a team-high 20 targets, eight more than Gesicki who is second. Parker has 55 or more yards and/or a touchdown in 9 of 10 games this year. He is tied for sixth in the NFL in targets over the last five games with 44. He is also top-15 in the league in air yards; he is getting plus volume and the ball is thrown to him down the field. He makes for a strong WR2/3 this week for me in a game where Fitzpatrick should be able to have more time in the pocket thanks to suspensions. Gesicki has six targets each of the last three weeks and seems to be the number two option in the passing game with Williams out of the year. He ran a career-high 51 routes and played a career-high 86% of the snaps last week against the Bills. The Browns have allowed the 11th most points to the position and their safety Morgan Burnett was just placed on IR. He makes for a fine streamer this week. It is hard to get excited about the third or fourth options in the passing game for the Dolphins. Jakeem Grant, Allen Hurns, and Albert Wilson have 31, 26, and 25 targets through 10 games this season (they have missed a combined five games). 

 

Cleveland Browns

 

Quarterback: 

• Baker Mayfield (start, low-QB1)

 

Mayfield has largely struggled this year as he is the QB21 in fantasy through 11 weeks. He has been better of late, posting fantasy QB10 results the last two weeks against the Bills and Steelers. Miami struggles to generate pressure as they are bottom-three in the league in QB hits, sacks, and pressure percentage. Mayfield has only been sacked five times in the last three games and that coincides with his improved fantasy numbers. They are also coming off a game in which they allowed the overall QB1 to Josh Allen. Mayfield has only been sacked five times in the last three games and that coincides with his improved fantasy numbers. Thanks to a great matchup in which he should have plenty of time to throw the ball, I like Mayfield as low-end QB1 this week.

 

Running Backs:

• Nick Chubb (start, strong-RB1)
• Kareem Hunt (start, mid-RB2)

 

This backfield has gotten a ton of work since Hunt returned from his suspension. Hunt has double-digit touches in both games and Chubb has 17+ in 10 straight games. Hunt has 17 targets to Chubb’s five over the last two games and is tied for second on the team in targets over that span. They are playing the two on the field together fairly often. Chubb has played 81 and 72 percent of the snaps and Hunt is at about 55 percent the last two weeks. Hunt and Chubb have both been PPR RB2’s over the last two games but this sets up better for Chubb as the Browns are two-touchdown favorites against the lowly Dolphins. The Dolphins are 29th in run defense DVOA and allow league-high carries and yards to opposing running backs. Chubb is locked in RB1 and I don’t see how you can bench Hunt after his usage the last two weeks. 

 

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

• Odell Beckham Jr. (start, low-WR1)
• Jarvis Landry (start, mid-WR2)

 

Beckham and Landry have 89 and 84 targets respectively; no other receiver or tight end has more than 15 for the Browns. In fantasy, we like to know where the targets are going, and they are going to these two predominantly. Beckham is due for a touchdown after getting tackled at the one last week and only having one score on the year. He is 10th at receiver in targets and eighth in target separation. This feels like the week it is all going to come together for him after the Dolphins allowed the Bills WR1, John Brown, to post nine receptions, 137 yards, and two touchdowns. Landry has been more consistent in the box score than Beckham, posting 65 yards and/or a touchdown in six of his last seven games. He is fifth at receiver in yards after the catch, meaning he is making plays on his pedestrian 8.3 yards per target. If I have either of these guys I would be excited to play them. The rest of the Browns receivers and tight ends have a combined six targets in the last two games.

-Kevin Taylor(@ktbeast918)