Sit/Start Week 13: Reviewing All the Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Browns@Steelers 

 

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, December 1st at 1:00 pm EST

Location: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA

Betting Odds: CLE -2, 40 total via Oddsshark

Network: CBS

Sleeper Spotlight: Kareem Hunt

 

Cleveland Browns

 

Quarterback:

• Baker Mayfield (Start, QB2)

 

The Browns offense is beginning to show signs of life, but much of that is thanks to a game against the Dolphins last week. The week before, Baker Mayfield went 17/32 for 193 yards and two touchdowns at home against this Steelers defense. Mayfield added a one-yard rushing touchdown to get him over 20 fantasy points, something we can hardly count on this time around. While I expect the Steelers offense to struggle and potentially set the Browns up with some short fields, it’s hard to see Mayfield as more than a superflex/2QB-league option. The Steelers defense has certainly benefitted from playing an easy stretch of quarterbacks, but that doesn’t take away from how well the defense has been playing. Pittsburgh has allowed the 9th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and four of their past five opponents have thrown for under 200 yards. It’s hard to picture Mayfield getting in a shootout here against Devlin Hodges, so I expect a yardage total around 200 again, and fantasy owners will be left hoping for red zone touchdowns to save Mayfield’s fantasy performance.

 

Running Backs:

• Nick Chubb (Start, RB1)
• Kareem Hunt (Start, Flex)

 

Nick Chubb’s consistency has been incredible this year, so don’t get scared off by a Steelers defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the running back position. Chubb has received 20 or more carries in eight of eleven games this year, including all of his last six games. Two weeks ago against Pittsburgh, Chubb had 27 carries for 92 yards but was held back by a lack of touchdowns and passing game work. I’d be willing to bet on Chubb improving on those numbers this week if given the same opportunities, however, and he showed last week that he can contribute to the passing game even with Kareem Hunt around, as Chubb pitched in three catches for 58 yards. With workhorse running backs few and far between, Chubb remains a locked-in every week starter.

 

Hunt is a little bit trickier of an evaluation, but the Browns clearly want to get him touches in the offense. Hunt has seen at least 54% of the offensive snaps in each of his three weeks with the Browns, and with 11, 12, and 10 touches he’s seeing a consistent workload. Chubb had a disappointing day last week that was salvaged with a touchdown, so there is still some risk. But the two weeks prior saw him catch six and seven passes, and that gives him a nice floor in PPR leagues. Two weeks ago against the Steelers, Hunt totaled 58 yards and 6 catches, making him a decent enough flex play. Stay away from him in standard leagues, but you could do worse as a flex option in PPR leagues.

 

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends: 

• Odell Beckham Jr. (Start, WR2)
• Jarvis Landry (Start, WR2)
• Rashard Higgins (Sit)
• Demetrius Harris (Sit)

 

If that was Odell Beckham Jr.’s blowup game against Miami, that was a bit of a disappointment. The Browns finally got a break from facing top-end passing defenses last week, and while Beckham had his best day since Week 2, six catches on eight targets for 84 yards and a touchdown is hardly the elite Beckham we know from the past. Pittsburgh just gave up 101 yards and a touchdown to Tyler Boyd last week, and Beckham recorded four catches for 60 yards on ten targets two weeks ago against Pittsburgh, including a long completion where he was tackled inches from the goal line. So this is far from a hopeless spot, as Beckham is likely to see his usual 6-12 targets and could be due more touchdown regression. But with only two 100-yard games on the year, Beckham isn’t a good bet for high yardage totals, making him more of a higher-end WR2 this week.

 

Jarvis Landry deserves to be a WR1 based on his last four weeks, where he has five total touchdowns and 29 receptions. And if you want to treat him as one, I wouldn’t fault you. He’s seen 10 or more targets in four of the last five games and has been a better fantasy player than Beckham. Similar to Beckham, however, I don’t see this being a particularly high yardage game for Landry, capping him as a WR2 for me. Last time out against Pittsburgh, Landry caught four passes on seven targets for 43 yards and a touchdown. While I don’t expect a repeat of Landry’s massive ten catch, 148 yard, two-touchdown game against Miami last week, you should start Landry with confidence this week.

 

Despite increasing their two tight end sets lately, none of the Browns’ tight end options are appealing, so sit Demetrius Harris. Rashard Higgins, the Browns’ number three receiver, has been a casualty of increased two tight end sets and can be left on waivers in all leagues.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

 

Quarterback: 

• Devlin Hodges (Sit)

 

Don’t be fooled by the narrative that Devlin Hodges entered last week’s game against the Bengals and provided a spark. Sure, completed his first two passes including a 79-yard touchdown to James Washington. But for the rest of the half, Hodges went 3/9 for 28 yards and didn’t look noticeably better than Mason Rudolph. Hodges should only be started in two-quarterback leagues where he’s your only option. This Browns defense hasn’t given up a 300-yard passer all season, and the Steelers will certainly look to run the ball as much as possible.

 

Running Backs:

• Benny Snell Jr. (Start, RB2/Flex)
• Jaylen Samuels (Sit)
• Kerrith Whyte (Sit)
• Trey Edmunds (Sit)

 

With James Conner set to miss another week, this is apparently Benny Snell Jr.’s backfield now? It was a bit of a surprise when he took over last week, but there’s no reason to believe that was a one-week change, so we should expect him to lead the backfield again. There are reasons for pessimism, however. Snell produced 21 carries for 98 scoreless yards against the Bengals, one of the worst run defenses in the league, so we may be looking at his ceiling last week. And while Snell was clearly the head of the committee, a 49% snap rate is far from a workhorse role. Another consideration is game-flow, as Snell isn’t the Steelers’ best pass-catching option, and they may not have the luxury of sticking with the run this week against a Browns team that is much better than the Bengals. All of this adds up to Snell looking like more of a backend RB2/Flex play than his line from last week may lead some to believe. There’s certainly a chance the Steelers get the lead at home and pound the rock between the tackles with Snell. But this Browns defense has held its own against the run, and Snell’s lack of explosiveness likely caps his upside. 

 

Jaylen Samuels could see a bounce-back game if the Steelers are forced to play from behind, but he is far too risky to trust with fantasy playoffs potentially on the line. Samuels only saw 30% of the offensive snaps last week, and while his three receptions were respectable considering the Steelers only completed 13 passes total, it’s hard to count on a pass-catching back in a low volume pass offense like this. I wouldn’t fault you for wanting to hang on to Samuels in case he regains his old role, but he likely belongs on waiver wires in most leagues.

 

Kerrith Whyte showed a little spark last week and might be worth a look in deep dynasty leagues. But otherwise, he can be left on waivers. Trey Edmunds is an unexciting option and is made irrelevant by the return of Snell from injury.

 

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends:

• James Washington (Sit)
• Diontae Johnson (Sit)
• Vance McDonald (Sit)

 

I would want to avoid all of the Steelers pass-catchers where possible. James Washington flashed last week on a 79-yard touchdown where he stiff-armed a defender to the ground, but that was against the Bengals. This Browns defense has shockingly not allowed a 100-yard receiving game since Week 3 against the Rams, and are allowing the 10th fewest points to fantasy wide receivers this year. Washington has seen between four and seven targets each game since the Week 7 bye, so he has a consistent role. But he is reliant on the big play, which is a scary proposition when his quarterback is Devlin Hodges. He’s nothing more than a desperation boom/bust WR3/Flex.

 

Diontae Johnson has received less volume and has produced fewer big plays than Washington since the bye. While he certainly has the potential to break a long play, he seems less likely to than Washington, and he’s seen fewer snaps than Washington over the last few weeks as well. Johnson should be left on your bench.

 

Vance McDonald isn’t worth streaming with this mess at quarterback. Before last week, McDonald saw three straight weeks with seven targets in each game, and his best day was a 33-yard day. Last week McDonald bottomed out at one target, one catch, and 1 receiving yard, and shouldn’t be trusted this late in the season. I’d rather try out streaming options like Noah Fant, Mike Gesicki, or Jack Doyle.

 

-Erik Smith (@ErikSmithQBL, truebest on Reddit)