Chargers@Broncos
Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 1st at 4:25 pm EST
Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Betting Odds: LAC -2.5, 38.5 Total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Sleeper Spotlight: Noah Fant
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback
- Philip Rivers (Sit)
Is this the end of Felipe Rios? Philip Rivers has thrown 15 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, which is the second-most in the NFL behind Jameis Winston. The interceptions aren’t a result of forcing the ball either, Rivers’ AGG% is 22nd lowest in the NFL. So these have mostly just been bad throws, like I’m sure you remember from the Raiders or Chiefs games. He is only 25th in QBR and he hasn’t passed the eye test either. On top of it all, there have been some rumblings of the Chargers moving on from Rivers this offseason. In his last matchup with Denver earlier this season, Rivers threw for 211 yards, two interceptions, and a whopping four fantasy points. Divisional matchups are always difficult and the Broncos defense is ranked 15th against the pass by DVOA and has been the fifth toughest against QBs for fantasy. Von Miller will be in the backfield all game against the shoddy Chargers offensive line. If you haven’t gotten out yet, now’s the time.
Running Backs
- Melvin Gordon (Start/RB2)
- Austin Ekeler (Start/Flex)
Since Melvin Gordon’s return, he and Austin Ekeler have been splitting the snaps down the middle. Gordon has been the primary runner and Ekeler has been the preferred passing option, though both are capable in either role. Gordon has heated up the past few games and finally looks like he is in football shape. The Broncos pose a difficult matchup (10th against the run), but with Rivers struggling the Chargers will likely try to establish the run. If they get a lead, Gordon will see a heavy workload as well. I have him listed as an RB2 because he will have a touch floor but the matchup could hold him back a bit. Ekeler has been the best receiving back in all of football, and that is quite an accomplishment when there is a man named Christian McCaffery. He is first in DYAR and DVOA, and is ahead of McCaffery and Dalvin Cook in DVOA by 16%. They are closer to Duke Johnson, who is in seventh, than they are Ekeler. You can play Ekeler with some confidence as his receiving role isn’t going anywhere and he has essentially been the Chargers WR2.
Wide Receivers/Tight End
- Keenan Allen (Start/WR2)
- Mike Williams (Sit)
- Hunter Henry (Start/TE1)
Keenan Allen has been plagued by dry spells almost every season. From weeks four to nine, Allen didn’t post more than 12 points and had two games over 50 yards. But in his last two games, Allen had eight catches in each and topped 16 fantasy points in both. This is partially from his increased red zone usage. During that drought, Allen saw a total of four red zone targets. He had three in each of his last two games. If those numbers can stay up, Allen’s floor gets even higher. He is still seeing double-digit targets each week and his aDOT is at a solid 10.9 yards. Let’s hope the red zone trend continues. Touchdown regression has hit Mike Williams like a freight train. After scoring 10 touchdowns last season, Williams has zero on similar targets. Williams has also been affected by Rivers performance. He is leading the league in aDOT at 16.5 yards, but he has only been able to bring in roughly half of his targets. A common Williams game this year has been to hit a long catch and then make a minimal impact afterward. He’s a sit against this strong Broncos pass defense. Hunter Henry has come back and been the savior at TE for many of us. His aDOT is 10.7 yards, which leads all TEs. If you have Henry, you start him no matter what.
Denver Broncos
Quarterback
- Brandon Allen (Sit)
For a third-string QB, what Brandon Allen has done is fine. But please, don’t even consider starting him. We should be happy the entire offense hasn’t cratered. If he qualified for advanced stats, he would be 31st in QBR and dead last in DVOA. The Chargers pass defense has not been one to fear this season (ranked 22nd by DVOA), but we cannot trust Allen to take advantage. Also, Derwin James is returning to the field and his impact is enormous to the Chargers secondary.
Running Backs
- Phillip Lindsay (Start/RB2)
- Royce Freeman (Sit)
The Broncos decided to use Phillip Lindsay as the primary back two weeks ago. Since then Lindsay has out-touched Royce Freeman 32 to 15. This was the right decision for the Broncos as Lindsay has been one of the most efficient backs this season. He ranks ninth in DVOA and 10th in DYAR. The Chargers have been the bottom of the barrel against the run this year, ranking 27th by DVOA. Lindsay is in a nice spot for the stretch run with some enticing matchups. Freeman’s value to the Broncos was with his receiving work. But since Allen took over, neither back has been targeted enough in the passing game. Without any real role as a runner, Freeman should be sitting on your bench.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
- Courtland Sutton (Sit)
- Noah Fant (Streamer)
The Broncos passing offense has become a two-man game. Courtland Sutton, who has taken a leap in his second year, and Noah Fant. Sutton has dominated the team’s target share and air yards. But with Allen throwing the ball, the floor can fall out at any moment like last week. Since the Emmanuel Sanders trade, Fant has had a 25% target share. That is very tough to find at TE and he can offer streamer appeal for the rest of the season.
-Frank Costanzo (@FrankQBList; Reddit: Zzzonked92)
Hey Aaron! Thanks for putting these out every week. I’m struggling to figure out which 2/3 to start out of Lockett, Carson, and Hopkins this week. Could also throw Waller or Hilton into the mix, but I don’t really think they’re in the same realm of value as the three aforementioned guys.
I’m leaning Lockett/Hopkins, even though Hopkins could toss up a donut as Amari did, Carson also doesn’t have an easy matchup and it seems like the snap count share is trending in Penny’s direction. Any thoughts?
Thanks Aaron – I look forward to your column every week. Two questions, Gordon v Ingram, and can you pick two from these three: Allen, Beckham, Robinson. thanks again!