Vikings@Seahawks
Game Info
Kickoff: Monday, December 2nd at 8:15 pm EST
Location: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA
Betting Odds: SEA -3, 49 Total via Oddsshark
Network: ESPN
Sleeper Spotlight: Jacob Hollister
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback:
- Kirk Cousins (Sit)
Kirk Cousins has been on a bit of a hot streak as of late, finishing with 19 or more fantasy points in each of his last three games, throwing 8 touchdowns to 0 interceptions. That said, it’s probably safest to leave him on the bench this week. The Seahawks have allowed opposing passers to toss just 8 TD’s over their last 8 games, and only Jameis Winston and his 44 pass attempts managed to complete into pay dirt more than once. The Seahawks have also picked off 9 passes in that span, though that’s unlikely to be a major factor for the prodigiously stingy (at least through the air) Cousins. Without having an ability to run to rely on to like many of the quarterbacks who’ve had good fantasy days against this defense, and given how much of his fantasy production has come via scores rather than high yardage, look for other help at quarterback this week, if you have the luxury.
Running Backs:
- Dalvin Cook (Start/RB1)
- Alexander Mattison (Sit)
Let’s be real, there was never a chance Cook wouldn’t be a start. Even with his relative inefficiency over the last three weeks, and coming off his lowest touch total of the season, Dalvin Cook is still a locked-in elite RB. That said, this isn’t a particularly friendly matchup, either. The Seahawks have been pretty stingy when it comes to allowed yardage on the ground (10th in the NFL) and Nick Chubb is the only back to break 100 rushing yards thus far. That said, they haven’t been particularly great at stopping those same RB’s from catching the ball, allowing 5 RB’s to go over 30 receiving yards, and twice they’ve let up more than 90, though it was back in Weeks 3 and 4. Cook is heavily involved in the Vikings pass attack over his last 4 games and should have no problem recouping his losses in the rushing column with a healthy smattering of receiving yardage.
Alexander Mattison has touched the ball just 15 times in the Vike’s last three contests, and while his value as a handcuff makes him worth keeping, there’s no point even FLEXing him this week.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends:
- Stefon Diggs (Start/WR1)
- Adam Thielen (Start/WR2)
- Kyle Rudolph (Sit)
- Irv Smith Jr. (Sit)
With Adam Thielen not catching a pass since Week 7, Stefon Diggs has largely capitalized on his absence with a trio of 120+ receiving yard games, though mixed in with a pair in which he couldn’t crack 50. The Hawks have allowed a 100-yard receiver in 6 of their 11 games so far, and have allowed 5 of those in their last 7 games. It’s very likely one of Diggs or Thielen will have a great day in Seattle, and my money is on the one who isn’t coming off missing effectively four games. That said, Adam Thielen is still a spectacular wide receiver, and could just as easily be the one who goes off rather than Diggs. I would feel good about starting either.
Seattle has been a mixed bag of a tight end matchup. On one hand, they allowed 37.3 combined points to the combination of Ertz and Goedert last week, and a huge 136-yard effort for Gerald Everett much earlier in the year, but it’s not a stretch to say that Kyle Rudolph is neither Zach Ertz, nor Dallas Goedert. The Seahawks have allowed just 2 TD’s to tight ends in their last 9 games, and only four tight ends have amassed more than 5 catches in a game in that same span. Kirk Cousin’s love for targeting Rudolph in the red zone is a plus that gives him a shot at being a startable asset this week, but compared to his chances of simply dropping a dud, it’s probably best to leave him out of your lineup this week. The same goes for Irv Smith Jr., only without the upside afforded by touchdown opportunity.
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback:
- Russell Wilson (Start/QB1)
Full steam ahead on this one. The Vikings pass defense has folded like a crying napkin over their last six when playing a real quarterback, letting Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford and Carson Wentz go for 397, 364 and 306 yards, respectively. Heck, even Matt Moore managed to hang 275 on them. I hope I don’t need to tell you that Russell Wilson is quite a bit better than all of the names listed, and should be an easy QB1 this week. Tyler Lockett should be closer to 100% now than last week, and not having to deal with last weeks’ ridiculous wind conditions can mean only good things for the superstar. Wilson has 7 games with multiple TD’s this year, and shouldn’t have too much trouble notching another such game, given the 6 QB’s the Vikings have allowed to accomplish the feat as well against them.
Running Backs:
- Chris Carson (Start/Flex)
- Rashaad Penny (Sit)
As if having to face the fearsome Minnesota run defense that has allowed only 3 RB’s to even go over 30 yards isn’t a tough enough task, Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny also face major usage question marks. Carson handled the ball just 12 times last week after an early fumble, while Rashaad Penny got 28% of his season carries with his 14 carries, and turned them into 129 yards. Pete Carroll has been very supportive of Chris Carson this season amidst some occasional fumbling issues, and he averaged over 22 carries per game between Week 4 and 10. Assuming Carson continues to see his old workload he should still at least be worth a flex spot even in this tough matchup, but Penny has to fight not just the matchup, but likely being on the wrong side of the carries split. It’s more likely neither of these two is going to end up worth starting this week than it is that both are.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends:
- Tyler Lockett (Start/WR1)
- D.K. Metcalf (Start/WR2)
- Josh Gordon (Sit)
- Jacob Hollister (Streamer)
Though it’s possible Tyler Lockett isn’t 100% healthy coming into this week, it’s hard not to start the favorite target of Russell Wilson, facing a team that’s allowed 5 100-yard receivers in their last 5 games, and 8 TD’s in that same span. An additional two receivers went over 70 yards, and in their last two games every single wide receiver to receive so much as a target has gone over 70 yards receiving. This same train of thought makes it difficult not to trot out D.K. Metcalf as well, whose game-breaking athleticism combined with consistent targets (at least 5 in every game since Week 6) make him a weekly threat to explode, as the Buccaneers learned in Week 9. Start both confidently, though the same can’t be said for Josh Gordon. The former Brown and Patriot has just 3 targets in two games for Seattle, and while the skills are obviously there for a big game, it’s difficult to do much when you’re not thrown the ball. Don’t be tempted by the name.
Jacob Hollister is an intriguing TE stream this week, which is a sentence I never foresaw myself writing. In Seattle’s last three games, Hollister has been on the receiving end of almost 20% of Russell Wilson’s pass attempts, as well as 3 TD’s. The Vikings have been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, and although 5 tight ends have managed to go over 60 yards on them, a tight end hadn’t scored on them until just last week. Because he has Russell Wilson at QB in a game where he should have no problems generating yards through the air, Hollister is a high-end streaming option who could very easily notch double-digit points, even without a score.
-Nate Watt (@NateWattQBL)
Hey Aaron! Thanks for putting these out every week. I’m struggling to figure out which 2/3 to start out of Lockett, Carson, and Hopkins this week. Could also throw Waller or Hilton into the mix, but I don’t really think they’re in the same realm of value as the three aforementioned guys.
I’m leaning Lockett/Hopkins, even though Hopkins could toss up a donut as Amari did, Carson also doesn’t have an easy matchup and it seems like the snap count share is trending in Penny’s direction. Any thoughts?
Thanks Aaron – I look forward to your column every week. Two questions, Gordon v Ingram, and can you pick two from these three: Allen, Beckham, Robinson. thanks again!