Sit/Start Week 13: Reviewing All the Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Bills@Cowboys

 

Game Info

Kickoff: Thursday, November 28th at 4:30 pm EST

Location: AT&T Stadium, Dallas, TX

Betting Odds: DAL -6.5, 46 Total via Oddsshark

Network: CBS

Sleeper Spotlight: Randall Cobb

 

Buffalo Bills

 

Quarterback: 

• Josh Allen (start, low-QB1/QB2)

 

Josh Allen has shown a great floor this year with 10 of 11 games being a top-16 option at the quarterback position. However, over the last four weeks, he has shown his ceiling as he is the QB2 overall over that time. The matchup isn’t great for Allen as the Cowboys are a top-10 defense in pressure percentage and the Bills offensive line is only 19th in adjusted sack rate allowed. Despite the matchup, Allens’ rushing ability makes him a solid option this week. He is top-three at quarterback in rushing yards, carries, and red-zone carries while leading the position with seven rushing touchdowns. In the time of year where the weather can be a factor in football, getting Allen and the Bills in a dome this week is a plus. You could certainly do worse than Allen this week against the Cowboys mediocre pass defense (18 in passing DVOA).

 

Running Backs:

• Devin Singletary (start, low/mid-RB2)
• Frank Gore (sit, wire)

 

Devin Singletary has played 66% of the snaps or more in each of the last five games, including 74% and 71% the last two. Gore is down to about a quarter of the snaps and has 11 total targets this year. Unfortunately, he has nine red-zone opportunities over the last four games to Singletary’s 10. Don’t forget Josh Allen’s seven rushing touchdowns as well. The lack of a true red-zone role limits Singletary’s upside. Singletary has 16 or more touches in three of his last four games and the Cowboys are only 18th in rush defense DVOA and will be without starting defensive tackle Al Woods and inside linebacker Leighton Vander Esch this week. The Bills offensive line has been great in run blocking, where they rank third in adjusted line yards. Singletary makes for a fine RB2 in PPR leagues this week.

 

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

• John Brown (start, mid-WR2)
• Cole Beasley (sit, WR4/bench)
• Dawson Knox (sit, TE2)

 

John Brown is fifth in the NFL in deep targets (20+ yards) and top-10 in receiving yards, target-share, and air yards at the receiver position. He has 50+ yards and/or a touchdown in every game this season. Dallas has only allowed four receivers to go over 75 yards against them this season, but Brown can beat any corner, as evidenced by his touchdown on stud corner Chris Harris last week. Start him with confidence this week against the Cowboys. Dawson Knox only has 13 targets over the last four games and can be avoided in standard leagues this week. Cole Beasley gets to play his former team of seven years in a “revenge game” this week. Beasley is the clear number two option in this offense as he has 35 more targets than Knox who is third. He only has two top-24 games this year and doesn’t make for a great start this week.

 

Dallas Cowboys

 

Quarterback:

• Dak Prescott (start, low-QB1)

 

Coming off his worst game of the season, Dak Prescott is in line for another brutal matchup this week. The Bills are number five in pass defense DVOA and have only allowed one top-13 quarterback through 11 games. The Bills rarely stack the box (8+ defenders) having done so less than 5% of the time this year. They play a heavy zone defense and beg offenses to try and methodically run the ball and throw short passes (6.0 yards per attempt 30th in the league) on them down the field. Prescott’s’ offensive line has the top adjusted sack rate in the league and goes up against a Bills unit that is top-10 in sacks but a bottom-half team in pressure percentage. Prescott has been a top-10 quarterback every home game this year, but with a full slate of quarterbacks available I think he is a lower-end QB1 this week.

 

Running Backs:

• Ezekiel Elliott (start, mid/high-RB1)
• Tony Pollard (sit, bench)

 

Ezekiel Elliott has an elite 22 or more touches in five of his last six games, with the other being 18. He is a locked-in RB1 every week right now with that usage and has the most running back touches inside the red-zone with 50. Tony Pollard quietly has out-targeted Elliott 8 to 7 over the last two games and has 13 touches himself over those two games. Dallas’ offensive line is second in adjusted line yards and the Bills are a poor 26th in rush defense DVOA this year. Pollard may be a sneaky play on the Thanksgiving-only slates. 

 

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends:

• Amari Cooper (start, low-WR2)
• Michael Gallup (start, WR2/3)
• Randall Cobb (sit, WR3/flex)
• Jason Witten (sit, TE2)

 

Since the Cowboys bye-week, Michael Gallup leads the team in targets with 35 followed closely by Amari Cooper (31) and Randall Cobb (30). Cooper is coming off a catch-less two target game against the Patriots. Now he likely gets Tre’Davious White‘s coverage who has not allowed a touchdown this year and the third-lowest passer rating when thrown at. Cooper is the WR7 in PPR leagues this year but he is nothing more than a volatile WR2 for me this week. Gallup has 55+ yards and/or a touchdown in 7 of 9 games this year and will likely avoid White’s coverage most of the game. Gallup also has six or more targets in 8 of 9 games this year and is quietly the WR17 in points per game this season. Cobb has 30 targets over the last four games and has parlayed that into the WR8 in PPR leagues over that time. It is hard to trust the third option in the passing game against a stingy passing defense. Not allowing many big plays, the Bills defense has allowed the second-fewest touchdown passes and the third-lowest yards per attempt. The Bills have not allowed more than 50 yards to tight ends all year, and Jason Witten hasn’t scored since week two and can safely be ignored.

 

-Kevin Taylor(@ktbeast918)