Sit/Start Week 15: Reviewing All the Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Falcons@49ers

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, December 15th at 4:25PM EST

Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA

Betting Odds: SF -11, 47 total via Oddsshark

Network: Fox

Sleeper Spotlight: Deebo Samuel

 

Atlanta Falcons

 

Quarterback:

 

• Matt Ryan (Start, Low-end QB1/High-End QB2)

 

 

Matt Ryan draws a tough matchup against a San Francisco defense that has allowed the 8th-fewest points to the fantasy quarterback position. The 49ers did just allow 349 yards, five passing touchdowns, and a rushing touchdown to Drew Brees, and Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray have recently posted solid fantasy days against this defense on the strength of their rushing ability. Ryan struggled in Weeks 12 and 13 when he was sacked six and nine times respectively, but they shored things up last week while scoring 40 points against the Panthers with only one sack allowed. San Francisco’s pass rush had been a force until the last two weeks, where they only sacked Jackson and Brees a total of one time. The 49ers are also missing pass rusher Dee Ford, so the Falcons should be able to move the ball a bit in this one. Still, this Falcons offensive line isn’t anywhere near that of the Ravens or Saints, so I expect the pass rush to give Ryan troubles throughout. His passing volume should be high on the road in a game where Atlanta is an underdog by 11 points, but I expect him to struggle for efficiency. I’ve got Ryan as my QB15 this week, making him a reasonable fantasy starter, but there may be better streaming options on your waiver wire.

 

Running Backs:

 

• Devonata Freeman (Start)
• Brian Hill (Sit)

 

 

The Falcons’ running backs draw a tough matchup this week, going against a 49errs defense giving up the third-fewest points to fantasy running backs this year. Devonta Freeman had as good of a matchup as he will see all year last week against a bad Carolina Panthers’ rush defense, and posted 17 carries for 84 yards and a touchdown, with four catches on four targets for 10 yards in the passing game. That looks like his ceiling, which he is unlikely to hit against this tough 49ers defense. Freeman did not practice on Wednesday with a knee injury, though he is reportedly expected to play. But Freeman isn’t getting the elite volume that he once was, so this is a reminder of his durability issues that the Falcons would be smart to pay attention to in a lost year. Freeman remains a back-end RB2 or solid flex play even in a tough matchup, as he can be counted on for 10 or more carries and three or more receptions nearly every week. But this definitely isn’t a blow up spot for him. 

 

Brian Hill backs up Freeman, and in a tough matchup he isn’t worth a look. If Freeman were to completely miss the game, Hill would make a desperation flex play. But Hill did not come through when Freeman was hurt earlier in the year, and it would be unwise to expect him to change that against a tough 49ers defense.

 

Wide Receivers/Tight End:

 

• Julio Jones (Start)
• Russell Gage (Sit)
• Austin Hooper (Start)

 

 

Even in a matchup against a 49ers defense allowing the fifth-fewest points to fantasy wide receivers, Julio Jones remains a WR1 for me. Jones returned from injury last week and looked healthy, and could have had a bigger day if not for a missed deep ball from Ryan. With Richard Sherman out, the 49ers secondary takes a hit, and the absence of fellow receiver Calvin Ridley should force even more targets to Jones. While Jones has been a disappointment, he is a threat to go off in any matchup. 

 

With Ridley hitting IR, Russell Gage should see some opportunities open up in the passing game. Gage has received four or more targets every week since Week 9, though last week’s two catch, 17-yard performance was his worst in that stretch. He’s taken on the old Mohamed Sanu role, and while he isn’t a starter in most fantasy leagues, he may be useful in super deep leagues.

 

Austin Hooper returned from injury last week to catch only two passes for 32 yards, but his six targets was encouraging and he looked healthy. San Francisco has allowed the third fewest points to fantasy tight ends this year, though they did just allow three touchdowns to Saints’ tight ends in last week’s shootout. With Ridley out, Hooper should see plenty of volume in this one, and he comes in as my TE7 this week. 

 

San Francisco 49ers

 

Quarterback:

 

• Jimmy Garoppolo (Start)

 

 

Against a Falcons defense allowing the third-most points to fantasy quarterbacks, Jimmy Garoppolo is firmly in the starting quarterback discussion, and is my QB7 this week. He’s hot coming off of his big win in New Orleans last week and is starting to gel with his healthy receiving corps that is finally at full strength.

 

Running Backs:

 

• Raheem Mostert (Start)
• Matt Breida (Sit)
• Tevin Coleman (Sit)

 

 

This sure seems like Raheem Mostert’s backfield going forward, and Kyle Shannahan has said nearly as much. Mostert saw 60% of the offensive snaps last week, while Matt Breida recorded 18% and Tevin Coleman logged 16%. Coleman and Breida can’t be trusted in the fantasy playoffs, but Mostert is a must-start against a Falcons defense that has improved against running backs this year, but remains a solid target. With four touchdowns in the last three games, Mostert is my RB16 this week and should be started with confidence on an offense that is humming with him leading the backfield.

 

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends:

 

• Emmanuel Sanders (Start)
• Deebo Samuel (Start)
• Kendrick Bourne (Sit)
• George Kittle (Start)

 

 

Emmanuel Sanders looks healthy after logging 94% of the snaps last week, and should be fired up as an upside WR2. Sanders went off for 157 yards on 7 catches last week and scored a touchdown, which looks similar to his performances pre-injury after he was traded to the 49ers. Sanders may even look like a WR1 going forward if he has a big week again this week.

 

Deebo Samuel is a player that I love, as the 49ers find ways to get the ball in the rookie’s hands, and he is a tough runner after the catch. Samuel has had some valleys with recent games of four and two targets, but received eight targets and two carries last week and surpassed 100 total yards for the third time in the last five weeks. His floor is lower than Sanders’ floor, as is his ceiling. But Samuel is a rock-solid WR3 with upside.

 

Kendrick Bourne has a nice touchdown role, scoring five touchdowns in the last six weeks. But with only nine targets over the last three weeks, he is the fourth option in this passing game and can’t be counted on for fantasy purposes. 

 

George Kittle is an auto-start every week, and is my TE2 this week. After his highlight-reel bull in a china shop run last week, he seems fully healthy as well. 

 

-Erik Smith (@ErikSmithQBL on Twitter, truebest on Reddit)