Packers@Lions
Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 29th at 1:00 PM ET
Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Betting Odds: GB -12.5, 43 total via Oddsshark
Network: FOX
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers (Start)
The Packers need a win to clinch a first-round bye, so they will be playing their regulars for as long as necessary in this matchup against the Lions. Detroit is bad against the run, so there is certainly some concern that Aaron Rodgers won’t need to air it out in this matchup. But in Week 17 we can’t be too picky, and the fact that Rodgers should play most of the game against a Detroit defense allowing the 7th most fantasy points to the quarterback position makes him start-worthy. Rodgers threw for 283 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions in Week 6, and while he may not throw enough this week to reach that yardage total again, he should be a safe bet for another two touchdowns, giving him a safe floor in a crazy fantasy week.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones (Start), Jamaal Williams (Sit)
Aaron Jones finds himself in a perfect spot for Week 17. Jones faces a Detroit defense that is allowing the third-most fantasy points to the running back position this year, while his backfield teammate Jamaal Williams did not practice Wednesday with a shoulder injury that forced him out of last week’s win over the Vikings. Jones is a touchdown machine, and in a great matchup against the Lions is a must-start in all league types. Williams could have some relevance if cleared for practice but will more than likely sit out or be on a snap count if he does play. The Packers should be able to handle the Lions even without Williams, making him hard to trust.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends:
Davante Adams (Start), Allen Lazard (Sit), Jimmy Graham (Sit)
Since returning from injury in Week 9, Davante Adams has double-digit targets in six of seven weeks, including back to back 100-yard games the last two weeks against the tough Bears and Vikings defenses. Adams is a locked-in WR1 this week with as high of a floor as any wide receiver. Allen Lazard has emerged as the number two wide receiver in this Green Bay offense, but Lazard has lacked the consistency to be counted on in fantasy leagues. His 9 targets from last week are encouraging, and he has some deep dynasty appeal for next year, but Lazard can be left on waivers in your typical redraft leagues. Jimmy Graham has seven total catches over the last five weeks and should not be counted on as a starting tight end. The rest of the Packers’ receiving options have faded as the year has progressed, as this offense flows through the running backs and Adams.
Detroit Lions
Quarterback
David Blough (Sit)
The way to attack this Packers’ defense is on the ground, not through the air, making David Blough a clear sit with fantasy seasons on the line. The Packers held Matthew Stafford to 265 scoreless passing yards in Week 6, and Green Bay gives up the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. All signs point to a disappointing game for Blough, who has regressed since his mildly impressive debut on Thanksgiving against the Bears. Blough is likely to start and finish the game, so he will have some appeal in two-quarterback leagues, but that is the extent of his fantasy usefulness.
Running Backs
Kerryon Johnson (Sit, Deep Flex), Bo Scarbrough (Sit)
Kerryon Johnson returned to the fold last week, and while he didn’t start he was the Lions best running back. The backfield was a jumbled mess, however, with Johnson leading the way with 32% of the snaps, Bo Scarbrough second with 28%, Ty Johnson third with 24%, and J.D. McKissic fourth with 14%. Green Bay’s defense can be beaten on the ground, allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this year, but they have tightened up lately and have shown the ability to shut down the running game on struggling offenses. Kerryon Johnson is the most appealing fantasy option as the most talented player in the backfield, but on a poor offense in a committee, it would be hard to trust him outside of a flex play in a super deep league. Scarbrough is only useful in a high-volume role, and his lack of passing game usage makes him un-playable now that he has a superior running back competing for snaps.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Kenny Golladay (Start, WR2), Danny Amendola (Sit, Deep Flex), Jesse James/Logan Thomas (Sit)
While the prospect of starting Kenny Golladay is a scary one now that David Blough is under center, the fact remains that Golladay is the league-leader in receiving touchdowns and has scored in three of his last four games. He can’t be counted on for the yardage totals that he put up with Stafford around, but he’s the primary target with Marvin Jones injured and remains a good bet to score each week. With the Lions likely trailing, Golladay can be trusted as a WR2 even against a solid Packers’ passing defense. Danny Amendola had a 13 target, 8 catch, 102-yard receiving day two weeks against the Buccaneers, only to follow it up with two catches for 21 yards last week. Amendola has largely been held under 50 receiving yards a game outside of a few random breakouts, and shouldn’t be trusted outside of the deepest of leagues. And don’t even think about starting Jesse James or Logan Thomas, this offense couldn’t properly incorporate a first-round pick tight end (T.J. Hockenson) even when Stafford was playing.
-Erik Smith (@ErikSmithQBL on Twitter, truebest on Reddit)