Dolphins @ Patriots
Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 29th at 1:00 PM EST
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Betting Odds: NE -16, 45 total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Sleeper Spotlight: Albert Wilson
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback:
- Ryan Fitzpatrick (Sit)
If there’s one thing Ryan Fitzpatrick loves to do, it’s throwing the ball downfield. The magician himself has the sixth-highest Average Completed Air Yards (CAY) on the season at 7.1, though it helps that they are always playing from behind and are forced to throw it anyway. The Patriots defense has been number one against the pass all season and held Fitzpatrick to 89 yards in Week 2, but Fitzy didn’t have the same rapport with DeVante Parker that he does now. He’s also had a little something going with Albert Wilson and Mike Gesicki the last couple of weeks that I’ll get into, and suddenly this matchup isn’t as lopsided as it once looked. Am I talking myself into starting the magic man himself in a Week 17 matchup against the best defense in the NFL in their own house? Hahahaha. No. Move on.
Running Backs:
- Patrick Laird (Sit)
It’s a real bummer that Myles Gaskin got injured last week because he would have been my sneaky sleeper this week. The one vulnerability the Patriots have had this year is against the run, though it has only been an issue against the best running teams and the Dolphins are not a good running team. Part of that is their lack of talent at the position, but most of it is because of their terrible offensive line. According to Football Outsiders, the Miami Dolphins are dead last in Adjusted Line Yards with 3.16. It would take an incredibly talented back to overcome this and Patrick Laird is not that guy. Again, the theme here is that it’s championship week, so if you want to win you will bench Laird.
Wide Receivers/Tight End:
- DeVante Parker (WR2)
- Albert Wilson (Sit/Flex)
- Mike Gesicki (Start/TE2)
Is DeVante Parker the happiest man in Miami these days? In one season he went from NFL draft bust to one of the best receivers in football and all it took was some Fitzmagic to turn things around. Does he put up the numbers he’s put up with Josh Rosen starting at QB all season? Not. Parker faces off against Stephon Gilmore this week and even if you hate the Patriots with every cell in your body you can’t deny that he’s been one of (if not the) best defensive players in football this season. Even with this matchup, you have to start Parker because you know the targets will be there and Fitzpatrick will be slinging it all day long. Temper your expectations – he’ll be lucky to get in the end zone – but a 10-15 point floor can be expected for this week.
Thanks to this new gig at QB List I’ve had the pleasure of watching each of the last two Dolphins games, and while I’m being slightly sarcastic I have to admit both games have been entertaining to watch. I’ve been especially impressed with Albert Wilson and Mike Gesicki, who have been targeted 15 and 20 times respectively. Wilson has an 80% catch rate while Gesicki has only a 50% catch rate, but Mikey G also has two touchdowns to make up for it. In a game where the Dolphins will be throwing the ball a lot, I do expect there to be a lot of targets to go around and both guys should benefit. I wouldn’t hesitate to start Gesicki as a TE2 this week but I wouldn’t expect a touchdown – something like five catches for 67 yards. Usable, but he won’t win you the week.
Wilson is my sleeper spotlight because he’ll be going up against a banged-up Jonathan Jones in this game. Jones is New England’s slot corner and has been one of the most improved players in the league this year, but he missed last week with a groin injury and the Patriots went on to give up over 100 yards to Cole Beasley without him. Jones practiced on Thursday and it looks like he will play, but if the Patriots are up big in the third quarter I would expect them to sit Jones for some rest. It’s a long shot, but I could see Albert Wilson ending up with 8 catches for 90 something yards when it’s all said and done if he’s squaring off with J.C. Jackson late in the game during garbage time.
New England Patriots
Quarterback:
- Tom Brady (Start/QB2)
The theme of the week for all playoff teams is how much rest the stars will get and how that will impact your fantasy teams. Well, Brady never sits. Brady has historically played late into blowout games, to the point where local sports media has criticized him and the team on multiple occasions for not erring on the side of caution in a game that’s already been decided. Tom is the GOAT because of his fierce competitiveness and his determination to dominate every opponent for 60 minutes no matter what the score is. In a game that the Patriots must win to secure their 10th straight first-round bye, you can bet on Brady playing into the fourth quarter. I have Brady as a QB2 this week with QB1 upside against the porous Miami defense.
Running Backs:
- Sony Michel (Start/RB2)
- James White (Start/Flex)
- Rex Burkhead (Sit/Flex)
After struggling all season behind a depleted offensive line, Sony Michel has finally strung together a couple of solid games as the offensive line play has improved tremendously for the Patriots. I expect Michel to get the bulk of the carries this week with a potential 100 yard game in the store. I do worry about Rex Burkhead’s siphoning goal line carries away from him but Michel is still a solid play against this Dolphins defense.
Speaking of Burkhead, he has a touchdown in two straight games and is worthy of a look in DFS tournaments this week. I do like him in deeper leagues as a flex play too, as he could be the lead guy in the second half of the Pats are up big. His usage has gone up in the last two weeks and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the offense has looked much better at the same time.
James White will continue to be the lead back on passing downs and that always makes him worthy of a flex play.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends:
- Julian Edelman (Start/WR2)
- Mohamed Sanu (Sit)
- N’Keal Harry (Sit)
Hand up: I was wrong about Julian Edelman last week. I assumed the worst when I heard the reports about his patellar tendon injury and I doubted his ability to fight through it and produce. I said he was droppable. I did drop him, only to see my opponent pick him up and flex him. He then went on to catch five of six targets for 72 yards plus a two-point conversion – 14 points shoved in my face while Cortland Sutton scored 9 as my WR1. I was still able to pull out a victory despite this and I hope I didn’t screw up your chances of a victory as well.
If he can play at the same level he did last week, on his still injured knee, he should be able to produce just as well if not better than he did against the much better Buffalo Bills defense. Start him if you stuck with him and expect him to play at least the entire first half.
As far as the rest of the New England receivers go, the matchup is great but I still wouldn’t want to trust any of them in a championship matchup. Mohamed Sanu has only caught five of his last 13 targets for a measly 37 yards and just isn’t producing enough to be considered in any leagues. N’Keal Harry is the better play since Josh McDaniels has been actively trying to find ways to give the talented rookie the ball, and this could be his coming-out party. I would rather have Harry this week but only in DFS or really deep leagues.
-Ben Brown (@FelixTheDog23 Twitter, iamatechnician Reddit)