Sit/Start Week 3: Reviewing All the Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Texans at Chargers

 

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, September 22nd at 4:25 pm EST

Location: Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson, CA

Betting Odds: LAC -4.5, 48 Total via Oddsshark

Network: CBS

Sleeper Spotlight: Keke Coutee

 

Houston Texans

 

Quarterbacks:

• Deshaun Watson (Start, QB1)

 

After a subpar performance in week 2, Deshaun Watson enters this week’s matchup against the Chargers as a locked-in QB1. The Chargers’ defense has not been relatively strong against opposing QBs. They have allowed multiple TDs in both of their first two games and have yet to play someone of Watson’s caliber. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Watson ranks 3rd in Average Intended Air Yards with 11.3 behind only the Dolphins QB tandem. He has pushed the ball downfield often and who can blame him with his array of weapons. The Chargers do have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL headed by star defensive end Joey Bosa. Even with Laremy Tunsil having another week in the offense the Texans offensive line will struggle to keep the Chargers away from Watson. Although it is a concern that Watson will be under pressure throughout the game, it will likely lead to more scrambles. Rushing yards are a major driver in fantasy for QBs and if Watson can add yards on the ground he is in for a big day. 

 

Running Backs:

• Carlos Hyde (Start, RB3)
• Duke Johnson Jr. (Sit)

 

Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson are currently in a timeshare of the Houston backfield operating about a 60/40 split, respectively. Johnson is handling the receiving work and Hyde has taken the majority of the early-down rushes. Hyde’s workload increased from week 1, after getting only 10 carries he doubled his touches with 20 carries against the Jaguars. That is promising for Hyde’s outlook. The Texans seem to be committed to slowing the game down and letting Hyde wear down the opponent. Going against a strong offensive unit like the Chargers may give the Texans even more incentive to implement long winding drives and establish the run.  The Chargers run defense has been up and down to start the 2019 season. They were gashed week 1 by Marlon Mack and the Colts but were able to limit Kerryon Johnson and the Lions to under 100 yards. It could be a tough matchup for Hyde but the Texans offensive line has surprisingly created space for the runner to start the season and with the Texans aerial weapons, we should not expect many stacked boxes. 

After 2 weeks, Duke Johnson has not gotten the workload fantasy owners were expecting to see. We can hope that it is due to Johnson still learning the playbook and his role will gradually increase, but for now, we need to keep him on our benches. Hyde is getting almost all of the rushing work and in the passing game where Johnson excels, he is getting limited looks. The Texans have also given Hyde nearly all the red zone work, getting 3 rushes compared to Johnson’s 1 and getting the teams only rush inside the 5. This game does project to be high scoring so Johnson could secure a decent fantasy day, but without the guaranteed workload I would suggest at best using him as a low floor, high upside flex. 

 

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends:

• DeAndre Hopkins (Start, WR1)
• Will Fuller V (Start, WR2)
• Keke Coutee (Sleeper)
• Kenny Stills (Sit)
• Jordan Akins (Sit)

 

It did not seem possible but it happened, DeAndre Hopkins had a down week. He was effectively shut down by the Jaguars (for now) starter, CB Jalen Ramsey. It was not a great showing but, have no fear Hopkins owners because boy-oh-boy do I have a stat for you. Since the start of 2017, DeAndre Hopkins has been held to 50 or fewer yards 3 times. In the week following those games, he has posted an average stat line of 8/159/1.67, scoring over 25 PPR fantasy points in each contest. He has another tough matchup against Casey Hayward this week, but Hopkins is very difficult to guard and as evidenced by the stat above, nearly impossible to do 2 weeks in a row. Hopkins is the ultimate fantasy receiver, so don’t worry about a 1 off against a top CB, start him with extreme confidence. 

Will Fuller V is one of my favorite plays this week.  He has been Deshaun Watson’s second-favorite option for two weeks. He only has 109 receiving yards through the first two weeks, but a massive 243 air yards, per airyards.com. He has gotten plenty of looks but hasn’t been able to connect with Watson, a blow-up game is on the horizon. With Casey Hayward busy with Hopkins, Fuller should see a heavy amount of Brandon Facyson. Fascyon is a 2018 UDFA who posted a 4.53 40-time. For comparison, Fuller ran a 4.32 (!) at the combine. Facyson has struggled through his first 2 weeks allowing 10 catches for 126 yards and a TD on 12 targets. It’s a match made in fantasy heaven and one that you should exploit. 

Behind the Texans, two big dogs, is my sleeper of the week, Keke Coutee and newly acquired Kenny Stills. Coutee missed week 1 with an injury and was shaking off the rust in his first start in week 2. He didn’t have a strong performance, but we couldn’t expect one in his first game action in almost a month. Coutee played 29 snaps and was given 4 targets which he turned into 2 catches for 7 yards. He plays out of the slot and mainly operates short to intermediate routes. He is Watson’s safety blanket, and if the Chargers get consistent pressure look for Watson to try and give the ball up quickly to the player closest to him which will usually be Coutee. Kenny Stills was out-snapped 29-25 by Coutee. This is probably an indication that Stills is still not fully comfortable with the playbook. A player with Stills’s ability to stretch the field should always be on the fantasy radar but his low snap and target count makes him hard to trust. He is nothing more than a boom/bust flex play. 

 

Los Angeles Chargers

 

Quarterback:

• Philip Rivers (Start, QB1)

 

Philip Rivers is looking to bounce back after a poor performance against the Lions. The offense as a whole struggled to get going against the Lions stout defense, especially the passing attack. This week Rivers gets a fresh start against a susceptible Texans secondary. Although they managed to keep Gardiner Minshew in check in week 2, they were torn apart by Drew Brees and the Saints in week 1 allowing over 350 yards and 2 TDs. The Chargers boast just as strong of an offense as the Saints and should have the ability to create mismatches with the Texans defense. This is a classic heavyweight battle between two extremely productive offenses and the score could soar. Rivers can be considered a low-end QB1 or strong QB2.

 

Running Backs:

• Austin Ekeler (Start, RB2)
• Justin Jackson (Sit)

 

Melvin Gordon who? Austin Ekeler is losing Melvin Gordon’s money by the minute as he sits at home waiting to be paid by the Chargers. Ekeler has relished in his workhorse role and doesn’t show any signs of slowing down. He has been heavily utilized as both a runner and receiver through two weeks. This week he faces a Texans defense who has severely struggled with containing pass-catching RBs to start the season. They have allowed RBs to catch 13 balls for 116 yards in the first two weeks. Yes, 7 for 72 of those were by Alvin Kamara who is an electric pass-catcher, but 4 for 40 were Leonard Fournette and he… is not. Ekeler has been the team’s goal-line back and has dominated all the work inside the 5-yard line. He did fumble when the Chargers got close to paydirt last week, which was his 2nd time doing so including the preseason. It should not be enough for the Chargers to look elsewhere but it is something to monitor. Ekeler is a midrange RB2 in this matchup and should have no problem adding to his career year against the Texans. Justin Jackson has been nothing more than a change of pace back for the Chargers. Getting out-snapped and out-touched by Ekeler, his only fantasy relevance is as a handcuff.

 

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends:

• Keenan Allen (Start, WR1)
• Mike Williams (Start, WR2/3)
• Travis Benjamin (Sit)
• Dontrelle Inman (Sit)
• Virgil Green (Sit)

 

Keenan Allen has been everything we could have asked for as we enter week 3. He is 2nd in the league with targets, 5th in receptions, and 6th in yards. You don’t need me to tell you to start Keenan Allen, but I am going to anyway. Start him. Digging a little deeper into Allen’s year I can make the case even more convincing. He currently sits atop the league in air yards with 329, while also holding the largest target share out of any receiver with 36%. Philip Rivers no longer has his safety blanket of Antonio Gates or even Hunter Henry at TE, so all those targets are filtering into Allen. In the red zone, Allen is also leading the team in targets. Both inside the 20 and the 5. The Chargers are looking to get him the ball as often as possible. Even the matchup is juicy. The Texans are weak at the CB spot. They just released slot corner Aaron Colvin and let Bradley Roby take over that role in week 2. Roby was able to limit the Jaguars receivers, but they are not nearly the same caliber as Allen and Gardiner Minshew is not Philip Rivers. So, just to reiterate, start Allen. 

Mike Williams entered week 2 banged up after sustaining a knee injury the week before against the Colts. He played 61% of the snaps, notching 5 targets which he made 3 catches for 83 yards. The usage wasn’t ideal but with another week of recovery that is likely to go up. He is, of course, playing second fiddle to Allen in the Chargers offense, but it’s still a valuable fiddle to be. The game projects to be a shootout with a lot of points scored on both sides. There will be plenty of scoring opportunities and history suggests that the Chargers will begin to use Williams more in the red zone. I expect Williams to play more and get more looks this week making him a startable high upside WR3. 

Travis Benjamin out-snapped Mike Williams last week but did not do much with the extra playing time. He has 5 targets on the year but has not done much with them. With Williams healthier I expect Benjamin to see less of the field. He is a speedster and always has the potential to break one-off but should not be in your fantasy lineups. Dontrelle Inman is at best the 5th option on a highly concentrated offense. Unless Williams or Allen don’t play for some bizarre reason he has no fantasy relevance.

 

-Matthew Perri (@MattPerri91)