Bengals at Bills
Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, September 22nd at 1:00 pm EST
Location: New Era Field, Buffalo, NY
Betting Odds: Buf -6, 44 total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Sleeper Spotlight: Devin Singletary
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback:
- Andy Dalton (Sit, Low QB2)
Dalton and the 0-2 Bengals head to Buffalo to face the 2-0 Bills getting their first home game of the season. The Bills defense has allowed an NFL-low 4.94 yards per pass attempt and the sixth-fewest passing yards despite facing the third-most pass attempts. Playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in football, Dalton has already been sacked nine times, the second-most in the NFL. The Bengals are also expected to be without starting rookie guard Michael Jordan. Dalton’s week two was saved with a 66 yard garbage time touchdown to John Ross III with 45 seconds left in the game, boosting him up to a QB9 finish on the week. Dalton has been the QB11 through two weeks but can’t be trusted as anything more than a low-end QB2 traveling to Buffalo.
Running Backs:
- Joe Mixon (sit, low RB2/flex)
- Giovani Bernard (sit, bench-stash)
Going into Buffalo as a road underdog does not set up well for either Mixon or Bernard. The Bills are 12th in run defense DVOA and the Bengals are dead-last in run blocking offensive metrics per football outsiders, giving up a cringe-worthy 40% stuffed rate (league-average is 18%). Coming into week two, there were questions if Mixon would play due to an ankle injury suffered the week prior. Mixon played 54% of the running back snaps and had 11 carries, 17 yards and three receptions (five targets) for 10 yards. Mixon seemed to escape week three without further injuring his ankle, but can’t be trusted as more than a low-end RB2/flex play in this tough matchup at Buffalo. Bernard played 40% of the running back snaps and six carries to go with three targets last week. Through two games, Bernard has nine touches and seven touches behind Mixon and his ankle injury. Bernard doesn’t have much upside in an ugly matchup against the Bills. Keep him on your benches.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
- Tyler Boyd (start, WR 2)
- John Ross III (start, WR3)
- Alex Erickson (sit, wire)
- Damion Willis (sit, wire)
- Tyler Eifert (sit, TE1/2)
- C.J. Uzomah (sit, wire)
Through two weeks, Ross III is the WR 2 and Boyd is the WR 20 in PPR formats with AJ Green out. Ross’s day got saved in week two on a long 66-yard touchdown with 45 seconds left in a blowout. Ross’s floor has been elevated due to his target share in this offense. He has 20 targets, one behind team-leader Boyd. New head coach Zac Taylor is actively trying to get Ross the ball, whereas former coach Marvin Lewis did not (60 targets last two years combined). The Bills do have slower perimeter corners in Tre’Davious White (4.47-seconds 40-yard dash at combine) and Levi Wallace (4.63-seconds 40-yard dash at combine) so Ross and his 4.22 wheels have an advantage in that aspect. This poor overall matchup and the more boom-or-bust nature of his game leaves him as a WR3 for me. Boyd has shown nice chemistry with Dalton catching 18 of 21 passes for 182 yards in his two games played. Boyd has a 6.9 average intended air yards on his attempts which caps the big-play upside for him and leads to higher percentage throws for Dalton. I expect Boyd to continue to get high volume (11,10 targets last two weeks) and should be a solid WR2 this week against Buffalo. Erickson and Willis should both be ignored in redraft formats, seeing seven and eight targets respectively through two weeks. Eifert is the TE 15 through two games and has five targets in both. The Bengals are trying to keep him healthy this year limiting his snap percentages to 49% in week one and 27% in week two. Eifert plays on the obvious passing downs and in the red zone which is important to us. However, he lacks upside without full-time usage and because he is, at best, the third pass-game option in this offense.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback:
- Josh Allen (Start, QB1)
Allen may not be the best real-life quarterback but he can be pure gold in fantasy. Over his last eight starts, he has been a top-five fantasy quarterback in four of those and a top-15 quarterback in six of those eight. Allen provides us with the appealing high-floor/high-ceiling combination thanks to his superior rushing ability. He has 17 rush attempts, which is second-most at his position, and two rushing touchdowns to go with that. Through two games, the Bengals have allowed a putrid 11 yards per pass attempt, the second-worst mark in the league. Allen has an intended air yards average of 8.9 and is tied for 12th highest in the league. The Bengals defense got shredded by the 49ers last week and have a middle of the pack pash rush with 4 sacks/11QB hits through two games (both bottom half of league numbers). They also lost edge rusher Carl Lawson to a hamstring injury last week; it remains to be seen if he will play. This all adds up to Allen being a solid QB1 with top-five upside on the week.
Running Backs:
- Frank Gore (Start, RB3/Flex)
- Devin Singletary (Start, Flex)
- TJ Yeldon (Sit, wire)
This matchup doesn’t get much better for the Bills. The Bengals gave up a combined 42 carries, 259 yards, two TDs on the ground and five receptions, 84 yards, one TD through the air to 49ers running backs a week ago. The Bills offensive line has been the third-best run-blocking unit so far in 2019 according to football outsiders. Gore has faced 8+ men in the box on 56.67% of his carries, which is the third-highest mark in the league. He has been woefully inefficient with his 30 carries (getting 2.9 yards-per-carry on those attempts) and has only two targets in the first two weeks. Singletary’s snap percentage dropped from 70% in week one to 33% in week two, where he reportedly picked up a hamstring injury. This may have caused his snaps to fall but he played throughout the whole game, logging runs in the fourth quarter. Singletary has been the passing game back, sprinkling in rush attempts and has been highly efficient when he has had the chances. He has 10 carries, 127 yards, one touchdown and has added five receptions through the air. Hamstring injuries have a high chance of reoccurring without proper rest for it, which makes me nervous to play Singletary if he suits up this week. If Singletary is out, I would expect Yeldon to play second fiddle to Gore. He has played two and five snaps in the first two games of the year. With no Singletary, Yeldon would be expected to get the passing game work and spell Gore a little bit in the run game, but not much. Gore is the safe play here and could see an uptick in usage in a great matchup. Singletary, if he plays, is in flex consideration and Yeldon should probably be on your wires right now unless Singletary is expected to miss multiple weeks.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends:
- John Brown (Start, WR2)
- Cole Beasley (sit, WR5- wire)
- Zay Jones (Sit, wire)
Brown fits Josh Allen’s playing style perfectly, as he is a premier deep ball receiver and Allen loves throwing the ball down the field. Brown has been used as the clear number one receiver, not just on go routes. He has been the WR17 through two weeks, drawing a whopping 43% of his team’s air yards, and has led his team in targets each game so far. We think that Allen will have plenty of time to throw this week, as noted earlier. The Bengals play a lot of man coverage, giving Brown shots to win downfield. Brown is the guy to play this week as he is top-20 in targets at the position and has been efficient with them, catching 14 of 18 on the season. Beasley only played 49% of the snaps last week after logging 70% in week one. Being a tactician in the slot doesn’t mesh great with Allen’s, at times, erratic accuracy. His targets also dropped from nine in week one to four last week, and he should probably be on the wire in most leagues. Jones has gotten four and three targets through two games and can safely be avoided in fantasy.
-Kevin Taylor (@ktbeast918)
So I have Vance on my bench with Marc Andrews starting.
My Flex options are Mike Wiliams (currently sitting in Flex spot), James White and Vance – Josh Jacobs says he’s sick and has lost 10lbs, plus the hip injury and going against MIN.
Should I start Vance over Williams/White?
I would not
Considering Joe Mixon’s slow start do you think John Brown or Kerryon Johnson would be better at the flex spot?
Massively struggling between Hilton and Golladay for my Flex. 0.25 PPR. Many experts are leaning towards Hilton, but I think Golladay has the better game. Thoughts?
your thoughts on shady or gore for my flex spot? i have saquon and kerryon for RB1/2. rest of my bench consists of aj green, kenny stills, chris thopson and ito smith. yes, i am in trouble.
Who should I flex? Kerryon, Scary Terry, or John Ross?
I should keep Lockett in over Fitz, right? He has a more favorable defensive matchup by far, and more upside, although I’m sure Fitz will get fed.
Metcalf is currently an available free agent in my 8-team league. Would you drop Mike Williams in favor of Metcalf? I currently have Lockett on my roster and on the bench in favor of Marquise Brown in the flex, and John Brown starting. Fitz is also on the bench. Hopkins and OBJ are my other starters.
No touchdown for Matt Breida last week unfortunately, otherwise great write-ups!
I currently have D.J. Chark, D.J. Moore, Adam Thielen, John Brown, and Mecole Hardman on my team. I am thinking about starting John Brown as my WR1, D.J. Chark as my WR2, and Mecole Hardman as my flex. So far I have not been impressed by Thielen this year, and with Cam most likely out I am afraid to start Moore. What do you recommend?
sorry if I’m posting this in the wrong thread, but I have a dilemma. No clue on who to start. I can start 6
PPR
Bell, Thielen, OBJ, Ridley, Montgomery, Keryon, Hollywood, DJ Chark
I’m leaning on benching dj and thielen. Opinions?
Rather than asking specific players, what positional ranking is highest in a 1 point PPR league
RB Flex, WR3, or TE1?