Ravens at Chiefs
Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, September 22nd at 1:00 pm EST
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Betting Odds: KC -6.5, 55 Total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Sleeper Spotlight: Mecole Hardman
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback:
- Lamar Jackson (start, QB1)
Jackson comes into week three as the number one overall fantasy quarterback and has another fantastic matchup on tap against the Chiefs. The game opens up with gigantic 55 point total and the Chiefs as 6.5/7 point favorites at home. Being large road dogs, we could expect a spike in Jackson’s pass attempts as the Ravens are expected to fall behind and will need to play catch up. Jackson had 37 pass attempts along with 16 rushing attempts in the Ravens week two win against the Cardinals, and all the other running backs had 17 carries combined. Similar usage should be expected from Jackson through the air but 16 carries are more the ceiling than what we should project. The Chiefs only have seven quarterback hits (T-6th lowest in NFL) and four sacks (T-8th lowest in NFL) through two games. Jackson should have the time to do what he wants against the Chiefs and should be asked to throw the ball 35-40 times as the Ravens offense will be asked to keep up with the Chiefs offense.
Running Backs:
- Mark Ingram (start, strong RB2)
- Gus Edwards (sit, bench-stash/drop if you need the room)
- Justice Hill (sit, bench-stash/drop if you need the room)
Ingram remains in play as RB2 this week against the Chiefs defense that has given up a league-high 6.0 yards-per-carry through two weeks. Ingram had 75% of the running back touches including some passing game work (2 out of 4 targets to the running backs) last week. Through two games, the Ravens running backs only have four targets. That will continue to be a concern because mobile quarterbacks tend to run the ball instead of drop-offs to their backs. Ingram got banged up a little late in the matchup against the Cardinals but returned to the game shortly after. We will need to monitor if that is anything to worry about going forward. Ingram had two of the four red-zone looks from Ravens running backs in week two but the one that Edwards had was while Ingram was injured. Ingram should continue to be the lead-back and have most of the red-zone work in this high scoring offense and that is a solid RB2 for us. Edwards played 20% of the snaps and that was a bit high because some of that was the result of Ingram leaving the field for injury. He had no targets and is a strict handcuff to Ingram. Hill also played 20% of the snaps but had one carry and two targets. Hill plays some but not all of the passing-down snaps for the Ravens and is nothing more than a bench stash for if Ingram missed time due to injury.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
- Marquise Brown (start, strong WR 2)
- Mark Andrews (start, TE 1)
- Willie Snead (sit, wire)
- Miles Boykin (sit, wire-keep an eye on)
- Hayden Hurst (sit, wire-keep an eye on)
Brown was tied for WR 22 last week but was tied for third in the NFL in receiver targets with a whopping 13 targets. Through two weeks he is fourth at the position in PPR points and should be in a position again to produce big numbers against this mediocre Chiefs secondary. They have been burned on the perimeter by DJ Chark (4 receptions, 146 yards, 1TD), Chris Conley (6 receptions, 97 yards, 1 TD) and Tyrell Williams (5 receptions, 47 yards, 1 TD) through two games. With Brown’s increased snap percentage (18% up to 65%) and large target share downfield (15th in team’s percentage of air yards), fire him up as a strong WR2 in a game where the Ravens should need to throw the ball often. Despite playing on 42% and 53% of the offensive snaps the first two games, Andrews is your overall TE1 in PPR leagues with 11 more fantasy points than the second player. He is tied for fourth in targets at the position and has the most 20+yard receptions at tight end too with six. In a game where the Ravens should need to have heavy pass volume, Andrews is a top-five tight end play like a stud downfield target (top-ten in targeted air yards at TE) against this fantasy-friendly secondary. Snead is a low-upside, low-aDot slot receiver who shouldn’t be owned in fantasy leagues. Boykin doesn’t have the results yet only seeing four targets through two games, but his snap percentage increased from 23% in week one to 48% in week two. A crazy sparq athlete, if Boykin’s snaps continue to increase as well as his targets (1 up to 3 in week two), he may become fantasy relevant as the season progresses. Hurst is another one to keep an eye on. A 2018 first-round pick, he was injured for a good chunk of last season but is quietly the TE 18 in PPR. He has caught all four of his targets for 42 yards and a touchdown this season. By no means is he startable after seeing one target last week, but if his opportunity grows he could sneak into that TE streamer conversation.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback:
- Patrick Mahomes (Start, QB1)
It doesn’t matter about matchups for Mahomes as he is an every-week, top-three quarterback play. Missing stud wide receiver Tyreek Hill made no difference for Mahomes in week two. He dropped 443 yards and four touchdowns on the Raiders on his way to the QB1 finish in fantasy for the week. The Ravens defense, missing corners Jimmy Smith and Tavon Young, couldn’t contain the Arizona passing offense, with Kyler Murray throwing for 349 scoreless yards. Mahomes should be started with confidence, as is the case every week, in his first home game of the year against the Ravens.
Running Backs:
- Damian Williams (Start, Flex)
- LeSean McCoy (Sit, RB3/4)
- Darwin Thompson (Sit, end of bench/wire)
This doesn’t set up as an easy matchup for the Chiefs on the ground. The Ravens have given up an NFL low 41 yards and a 1.8 yards per attempt. Both Williams and McCoy left week two late with injuries. Before the injuries, both backs were inefficient on the ground. Williams had 9 carries, 8 yards and McCoy had 11 carries, 23 yards. Williams’s day was saved in the receiving game with 3 receptions for 48 yards, and his passing game work with the best quarterback in the NFL is why I have him the flex conversation. It is worth noting that McCoy bridged the gap in terms of snap percentage in week two, playing 41% to Williams’s 51% compared to a 29% to 66% disparity in week one. McCoy also got the only two red zone running back looks in week two after Williams had seven of nine in week one. Thompson remains an end-of-bench stash but will come into play if either Williams or McCoy misses time. If either McCoy or Williams misses this game the other one would be an RB2 for me, getting a more secure workload although I would think Thompson would get more than his 3-5 snap percentage.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends:
- Sammy Watkins (Start, WR1)
- Travis Kelce (Start, TE1)
- Mecole Hardman (Start, WR 3/Flex)
- Demarcus Robinson (Start, WR 3/Flex)
The Ravens have a stout run defense but have injuries in the secondary and the Chiefs should be able to take advantage of that. Watkins had a team-high 13 targets in his first game without Tyreek Hill. He parlayed that into a scoreless six receptions for 49 yards and is the number two overall WR in fantasy through two weeks. He should continue to be fired up as an every-week WR1 without Hill, being the number one receiver for the best quarterback in the league. Kelce predictably roasted the Raiders in week two putting up seven receptions, 107 yards, 1 TD and is an every week matchup-proof TE 1. Through two games, the Ravens haven’t faced a team that features their tight ends at all so we don’t know if that is a strength or weakness for them yet. Robinson and Hardman are both in play as WR3/flex options this week against the Ravens. Robinson saw 91% of the snaps and Hardman 74% of the snaps without Hill in the lineup. Each of them had six targets with Robinson going nuclear, 6 receptions, 172 yards, 2 TDs. Hardman produced good results himself with 4 receptions, 61 yards, and 1 TD, he also had a long touchdown catch negated due to a penalty. Hardman has blazing 4.33-seconds speed and is number two in the NFL in average separation at 5.8. Both Robinson and Hardman are in play this week as WR3/Flex options against a beat-up Ravens secondary that just gave up 349 passing yards to Kyler Murray and the Cardinals.
-Kevin Taylor (@ktbeast918)
So I have Vance on my bench with Marc Andrews starting.
My Flex options are Mike Wiliams (currently sitting in Flex spot), James White and Vance – Josh Jacobs says he’s sick and has lost 10lbs, plus the hip injury and going against MIN.
Should I start Vance over Williams/White?
I would not
Considering Joe Mixon’s slow start do you think John Brown or Kerryon Johnson would be better at the flex spot?
Massively struggling between Hilton and Golladay for my Flex. 0.25 PPR. Many experts are leaning towards Hilton, but I think Golladay has the better game. Thoughts?
your thoughts on shady or gore for my flex spot? i have saquon and kerryon for RB1/2. rest of my bench consists of aj green, kenny stills, chris thopson and ito smith. yes, i am in trouble.
Who should I flex? Kerryon, Scary Terry, or John Ross?
I should keep Lockett in over Fitz, right? He has a more favorable defensive matchup by far, and more upside, although I’m sure Fitz will get fed.
Metcalf is currently an available free agent in my 8-team league. Would you drop Mike Williams in favor of Metcalf? I currently have Lockett on my roster and on the bench in favor of Marquise Brown in the flex, and John Brown starting. Fitz is also on the bench. Hopkins and OBJ are my other starters.
No touchdown for Matt Breida last week unfortunately, otherwise great write-ups!
I currently have D.J. Chark, D.J. Moore, Adam Thielen, John Brown, and Mecole Hardman on my team. I am thinking about starting John Brown as my WR1, D.J. Chark as my WR2, and Mecole Hardman as my flex. So far I have not been impressed by Thielen this year, and with Cam most likely out I am afraid to start Moore. What do you recommend?
sorry if I’m posting this in the wrong thread, but I have a dilemma. No clue on who to start. I can start 6
PPR
Bell, Thielen, OBJ, Ridley, Montgomery, Keryon, Hollywood, DJ Chark
I’m leaning on benching dj and thielen. Opinions?
Rather than asking specific players, what positional ranking is highest in a 1 point PPR league
RB Flex, WR3, or TE1?