Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, September 29th at 1:00 pm EST
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Betting Odds: LAC -16.5, 44.5 Total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Sleeper Spotlight: Preston Williams
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback:
- Phillip Rivers (Start/QB1)
Phillip Rivers is a safe QB1 this week against the Dolphins. Miami has allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game through the first three weeks of the season. The only this limiting his upside is himself – does that make sense? Assuming the Dolphins offense will struggle, the Chargers should be up big by halftime, which would limit the number of attempts for Rivers.
Running Backs:
- Austin Ekeler (Start/RB1)
- Justin Jackson (Start/Flex)
Austin Ekeler has been an RB1 all year, thanks in part to having a 17% target share in the passing game. Week 3 saw Ekeler’s snap share go from 73-75% in Weeks 1 and 2 down to 65%. Despite this reduction in snaps, Ekeler still had seven targets, making seven catches for 45 yards. I list Justin Jackson as a flex, due to how I feel this game-flow will be. If the Chargers are up early, I could see them wanting to give Ekeler some rest and let Jackson carry the load.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends:
- Keenan Allen (Start/WR1)
- Mike Williams (Start/Flex)
- Travis Benjamin (Sit)
- Dontrelle Inman (Sit)
- Lance Kendricks (Sit)
Through three weeks, Keenan Allen leads the world in every receiving statistic ever created. You might think that’s hyperbole, but it’s not. Allen leads the league in targets (42, next closest is 33), receptions, receiving yards, Air Yards, red-zone targets, and target share (36%). As Mike Williams continues to recover from a knee injury that he suffered in Week 1, he continues to be more and more involved in the offense. Williams saw seven targets in Week 3 after seeing just five in Week 2. This week I’m treating Williams as a flex play, but his upside is limited by how often the Chargers will have to throw the ball against the Dolphins. Travis Benjamin, Dontrelle Inman, and Lance Kendricks all have a sub-10% target share and are all bench-able for now.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback:
- Josh Rosen (Sit)
- Ryan Fitzpatrick (Sit)
There’s not much to see here. Josh Rosen has an aDOT of 5.3 yards this year, which is not great. The Dolphins have trailed pretty much all year and Rosen’s not even going to get you garbage time points throwing check-downs 40 times a game. If Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the start, I’ll take a wait and see approach with most of this offense, as the Chargers defense has my respect.
Running Backs:
- Kenyan Drake (Start/Flex)
- Kallen Ballage (Sit)
With the Chargers being 16.5-point favorites, we know how this game script is going to go. The only thing saving Kenyan Drake is his increased work in the passing game. Over the last two weeks, Drake has a 15% target share. In Week 3, Drake had six targets versus Kallen Ballage’s three, who saw his targets fall after receiving five in Week 2. Despite his work in the passing game, I still only view Drake as a flex play this week.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends:
- Preston Williams (Sit/Deep Flex)
- DeVante Parker (Sit/Deep Flex)
- Mike Gesicki (Sit)
- Jakeem Grant (Sit)
- Albert Wilson (Sit)
Seeing Preston Williams receive 12 targets in Week 3 is super intriguing, even if he was only able to wrangle in four catches. If he maintains a 25-30% target share, then he’d become flex worthy every week, especially since the Dolphins have thrown on 71.02% of their plays. Of receivers that have received at least 10 targets, no one has a higher aDOT than DeVante Parker. Parker has 20 targets with an aDOT of 21.6 yards for 433 Air Yards, the fourth-highest amount in the league. The problem is Josh Rosen has only connected with him on six of those 20 targets. Jakeem Grant’s role in the offense has increased over the first three weeks, going from four targets in Week 1 to seven in Weeks 2 and 3. However, like the rest of the pass-catchers, Grant’s upside is limited by the quarterback play. Albert Wilson has missed the last two weeks with a calf injury. We’ll have to keep an eye on his workload, along with Grant’s workload, upon his return.
-Rich Holman, (@nextdoorFFguru)
Andrews or demarcus Robinson in a full point PPR? if there’s not much of a difference, I’m probably going to go Robinson anyways because I’m a Browns fan and I hate having to root for a guy on the other team.