Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, September 29th at 1:00 pm EST
Location: New Era Field, Orchard Park, NY
Betting Odds: NE -6.5, 42.5 Total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Sleeper Spotlight: Phillip Dorsett
New England Patriots
Quarterback:
- Tom Brady (/QB1)
This is quite the predicament. Tom Brady and the Patriots have been on an absolute tear over the last few weeks, but so has the Buffalo Bills defense. Over the past few years, the Bills defense have had Brady’s number. Over his past 4 starts against the Bills new and improved defense Brady has had an average stat line of 233 passing yards, .75 TDs, and 1 INT. Those numbers are not very Brady-esque. The Pats’ game plan against the Bills has usually been to dominate the ground game and let their defense control the game. All that being said, Brady is still a start for me as a low-end QB1. It is a difficult matchup, but so much can go wrong by keeping Brady on your bench.
Running Backs:
- Sony Michel (Sit)
- James White (Start/RB2)
- Rex Burkhead (Start/Flex)
In 2018, when the Patriots last played the Bills, Sony Michel racked up 116 yards on 18 carries and a touchdown. I wish it was as easy as saying that we can expect the same again this year, but it is not. Michel has looked horrible to begin the 2019 season and the Pats have taken notice. In a blowout against the Jets in week 3, Michel only played 22% of snaps and got 9 carries which he turned into 11 yards. It would be 1 thing if he was doing good on his limited snaps but besides his TDs, he has been woeful. On his 45 attempts this year, he has forced only 1 (!) missed tackle and has a 1.67 YPC. To make matters worse, the Pats just placed their elite FB James Develin on the IR, compiled with a banged-up offensive line Michel will have the least room to run of his career. I am extremely worried and would not start him this week. He is as TD dependent as it gets and I would rather avoid that risk if I can.
James White is the safest option in the Pats backfield at this point in the year. He missed last week’s game against the Jets for the birth of his child, but is back this week and should be in line for his usual workload. The Bills have been rather stout against receiving backs. They have held the likes of Saquon Barkley, Le’Veon Bell, and Joe Mixon to less than 35 yards. Although it could be a tougher matchup, the Patriots are the best in the business for a reason. I do not doubt in my mind that the Pats will be able to get White into space with room to create. You may be worried that the game script may not be favorable for White, which is a fair concern, but I would not be worried. The Patriots have shown that they are looking to pile up the points, even in blowouts, and the BIlls should be more competitive than they have been in the past. He is a safe RB2 for me this week.
If you followed the popular saying of “draft the cheapest Patriots RB” you would be pretty happy with the results. Rex Burkhead has out-snapped Sony Michel in all but 1 of the first 3 weeks and has looked way better. Unlike Michel and White, Burkhead is getting a good amount of work in both the run and passing game. The Patriots backfield is one of the more unpredictable situations week-to-week, however, I believe Burkhead has shown enough to be trusted by fantasy gamers and his coaching staff. He is mid-range flex against the Bills this week.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends:
- Julian Edelman (Start/WR2)
- Josh Gordon (Start/WR3/Flex)
- Phillip Dorsett (Sleeper)
The Patriots WRs left Foxborough with a win, but also with a bunch of injuries. Julian Edelman exited last week’s game with a chest injury, but after undergoing further testing he is projected to play this week. The Bills secondary strength is on the outside and not in the slot where Edelman will likely be operating. He will not see the shadow coverage of Tre’Davious White, instead of seeing a mix of Siran Neal and Kevin Johnson. The Bills have had a tough time covering above-average slot WRs, giving up 6+ catches and over 65 yards to Jamison Crowder and Tyler Boyd. Edelman is a strong play this week and should be started as a WR2.
Julian Edelman will avoid Tre’Davious White’s shadow coverage, but Josh Gordon will not. The young corner will likely be following Gordon around the field for the entire game, similarly to the way it was in last year’s matchup. In their 2018 matchup, White held Gordon to 4 catches for 42 yards on 6 targets. In his first 3 games this year, White has only allowed 11 catches and has a sub-50 passer rating when targeted. Gordon will have his hands full with White covering him and makes him a risky start. In an explosive offense like the Patriots, with a WR as talented as Gordon it is tough to sit him, but I would temper expectations. He can be considered a mid-range flex and may be reliant on a TD to return value.
Phillip Dorsett has been a fantasy-relevant player to begin the season for the first time in the season. He is my sleeper for this matchup. While Tre’Davious White follows Josh Gordon around, Dorsett should see plenty of Levi Wallace. Wallace has been decent to begin the year but could struggle against Dorsett. Wallace is not a speedster, the second year CB only ran a 4.63 40-yard dash and will be attempting to cover 4.33 speed. It is a clear mismatch and is a prime spot for Dorsett to capitalize.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback:
- Josh Allen (Sit)
Josh Allen, similarly to the Bills as a whole, has started the 2019 season on a hot streak. He is currently a top-12 QB and has been one of the more exciting players to watch week to week. All that being said, he is a sit for me this week. Allen has not played a defense close to the same caliber as the one that Patriots will be fielding on Sunday. Three weeks into the season and the Patriots have still yet to allow an offensive touchdown, which is bonkers. They have limited opposing offenses to just under 600 yards total in 3 games while racking up 6 interceptions and allowing only 3.5 yards per play. Allen has also shown that he is prone to making mistakes. He gifted the Bengals a game-changing INT last week, and his margin for error will be even smaller this week. If he can overcome this week’s matchup he may have to be considered a weekly starter no matter the matchup, however, that is a big “if”.
Running Backs:
- Frank Gore (Sit)
- T.J. Yeldon (Sit)
Frank Gore had his day in the sun in week 3 but now it is time for him to return to your benches. This is not the defense you want to be starting a 36-year old RB against, who has limited work in the passing game. I still expect Gore to see a good amount of volume with Devin Singletary sidelined, but even with upper-tier volume, the efficiency will not be there. The Patriots are allowing only 2.3 YPC over the first 3 weeks and as I said before, they have not given up a touchdown. The Bills are also 6.5 point underdogs at home, meaning they could be trailing and in hurry up for a good portion of the game. That would leave Gore on the bench or splitting reps with T.J. Yeldon.
T.J. Yeldon had 10 touches compared to Gore’s 16 in week 3 and we can expect a similar split for this week. However, even though he will get volume he cannot be started with confidence against the Pats. Yeldon will make up his value if the Bills begin to trail and the Bills up his snap total because of his prowess in the receiving game.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends:
- John Brown (Sit)
- Cole Beasley (Start/Flex)
- Robert Foster (Sit)
- Zay Jones (Sit)
- Dawson Knox (Sit)
Buffalo Bills WR John Brown has been trending down since a monstrous week 1. He has been held in check by both the Giants and Bengals, both of which are bottom tier secondary’s. Even with his output dwindling he is still a relevant fantasy asset and I expect him to bounce back. However, I do not expect his bounceback to start this week. The Patriots boast one of the top defensive back units in the league, led by All-Pro CB Stephon Gilmore. Brown plays most of his snaps on the outside, so he will see plenty of Gilmore which is far from a good thing. The Pats will likely limit the Bills long game and let them try and beat them underneath, meaning Brown will not be utilized to his strength. Smokey is a sit this week, purely based off matchup, I would hold onto him because his next big game is all but a guarantee.
If the Pats force pressure on Josh Allen he will be forced to keep his throws short and quick. That bodes well for Cole Beasley. He will operate mainly out of the slot and will act as Allen’s safety blanket. He will likely not have a big yard game, but he should put up a respectable stat line in PPR formats. As with all the other Bills WRs, Beasley has a tough matchup. Playing out of the slot he will be lined up against Jonathan Jones. Jones has locked up opposing slot WRs. The only yards against on his 2019 resume have come when the games are so out of reach that the Patriots are essentially playing prevent defense. I expect the Bills to trail throughout this game and force Josh Allen to throw the ball and throw it a lot. With the increased pass volume, Beasley should be able to overcome his difficult matchup and be a usable flex play.
Dawson Knox had a highlight-reel catch and run against the Bengals last week and if you have not seen it, I recommend you do. Beyond that play, there is not much else I can say about Knox in terms of fantasy. He saw an increase in usage in week 3 but is still not a big enough part of the offense to warrant a fantasy start.
-Matt Perri (@MattPerri91)
Andrews or demarcus Robinson in a full point PPR? if there’s not much of a difference, I’m probably going to go Robinson anyways because I’m a Browns fan and I hate having to root for a guy on the other team.