Sit/Start Week 5: Reviewing All the Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Bears@Raiders

 

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, October 6th at 1:00 pm EST

Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London, England

Betting Odds: CHI -4.5, 41 total via Oddsshark

Network: FOX

Sleeper Spotlight: Hunter Renfrow

 

Chicago Bears

 

Quarterback:

• Chase Daniel (Sit)

 

In week 4, Mitch Trubisky landed awkwardly on his left shoulder and will be sidelined for this week’s game. Filling in for him is Chase Daniel, a long-time journeyman QB who has been in the Bears offense for the past couple years. What does this mean for Chicago’s offense? Honestly, it may have little to no impact. Trubisky has been rather woeful this year and Daniel will not be much of a stepdown. Though, as per usual when a starter goes down the back-up does not have much fantasy relevance. Even in a plus matchup Chase Daniel should not be rostered or started. 

 

Running Backs:

• David Montgomery (Start/RB3)
• Tarik Cohen (Sit)
• Mike Davis (Sit)

 

David Montgomery’s snap count over the first four weeks of the season is as follows: 38%> 44%>67%>69%. His touches have gone: 7>19>16>24. These are both great signs of his outlook. He is slowly assuming lead-back duties in the Bears backfield. The only problem is that he has not been very effective with his touches, only averaging greater than 4.0 YPC once. With Trubisky now out, there is a chance that defenses pay more attention to the run game and make Montgomery’s life difficult. The Raiders have been strong against the run to start the year, besides their game against the Vikings where it all fell apart. With Vontaze Burfict suspended for the season their run defense does lose a valuable piece, but I still believe it is one of the better ones in the NFL. They have held opposing RBs to 3.9 YPC and only allowed 3 TDs on the ground. If you remove the Vikings game from that sample the numbers drop down to 3.0 YPC and 0  TDs. According to Football Outsiders, the Raiders rank 10th in adjusted line yards and RB yards and are middle of the pack in stuffed % and second-level yards allowed. In a difficult matchup, Montgomery boasts a decent floor due to volume and limited upside. I see him as an RB3 that may need a TD to return value. 

 

With Montgomery’s snaps increasing, Tarik Cohen’s have dipped along with his touches. He is no longer the crazy efficient fantasy freak he was last year and I have to put him down as a sit. He finds himself in a low total game, being out-snapped by a better player, and with Chase Daniel at QB. He can be a low-end flex in PPR formats but has a shaky floor and shaky upside. Mike Davis has been fully usurped by David Montgomery and does not have any fantasy relevance this week. 

 

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends:

• Allen Robinson (Start/WR2)
• Anthony Miller (Sit)
• Taylor Gabriel (Sit)
• Javon Wims (Sit)
• Cordarrelle Patterson (Sit)
• Trey Burton (Sit)

 

Has Allen Robinson been cursed to play his entire football career with some of the worst QBs? I think so, or at least it appears so. As I said before, even with Trubisky out and Chase Daniel starting I do not view it as too big of a downgrade. In the two games he has started in 2018 he was solid. Passing for over 230 yards in both games and throwing 3 TDs. In his first game with Daniel, Robinson was not heavily utilized, but in the following week, he received 9 targets, catching 5 for 79 yards. The Raiders have been toasted by outside receivers. Allowing Courtland Sutton, Demarcus Robinson, and Zach Pascal to catch over 70 yards in their meetings. Allen Robinson goes into the week as one of only seven players to have commanded over a 20% target share in each of the first 4 weeks. I like him this week as WR2 with capped upside because of his QB, but a super solid floor. 

 

Beyond Robinson, the Bears spread the ball around more than almost any other team in the NFL. I would not trust any of them, except maybe Burton because he may become Daniel’s go-to safety blanket for short yardage. 

 

Oakland Raiders

 

Quarterback:

• Derek Carr (Sit)

 

Derek Carr has yet to finish in the top 12 of weekly QB finishes in each of the first four weeks of the seasons. Averaging under 200 passing yards per game and 1.5 TDs per week limit Carr’s upside. This week he plays against arguably the best defense in the entire NFL, so his chances of getting into the top 12 for the first time are slim. He is an easy sit for me this week and I don’t feel like I need to give you all too much reason. 

 

Running Backs:

• Josh Jacobs (Start/Flex)
• Jalen Richard (Sit)
• Deandre Washington (Sit)

 

After saying he wanted to get Josh Jacobs more involved in the passing game, Gruden still gave a large number of snaps to Jalen Richard and Deandre Washington. We will have to face the fact that for the foreseeable future, Jacobs will not be a true workhorse. Going against the Bears stout defense with limited passing-game work and ceding rushes to other RBs Jacobs is not in a great position. It is crazy he is not getting the ball way more, he has looked very impressive with his touches. Forcing missed tackles at an exceptional rate and racking up the yards after contact. He is a flex play for me this week. He should have a solid rushing floor and all the goal-line work but could be phased out with a bad script. Similar to David Montgomery, Jacobs may need a TD to return his value. 

 

Jalen Richard and Deandre Washington are just annoyances to Jacobs owners and do not have much relevance for fantasy. If the Raiders get down big Richard could see a lot of dumps offs thrown his way, keeping him in play as a desperation flex in PPR formats. 

 

Wide Receivers and Tight Ends:

• Tyrell Williams (Start/Flex)
• Hunter Renfrow (Sit)
• Darren Waller (Start/TE1)
• Foster Moreau (Sit)

 

Tyrell Williams is the only player in the NFL that has a receiving touchdown in each of the first four games. He will have his toughest matchup of the year to date against a stout Bears secondary. Although the Bears’ defense is one of the best, they have been had by opposing WRs. Paul Richardson and Stefon Diggs have are the only two WRs to the top over 100 receiving yards. However, there is an interesting caveat with their stat lines. Almost all of their yards came in garbage time. Against both teams, the Bears went up big and then took their foot off the gas when the game was essentially out of reach. Now, I am not advocating relying on garbage time as a reason to start Williams, but it is something to keep in mind. An actual reason to start Williams is that he is tied for 3rd in the NFL in red-zone targets. When the team gets in close they look for Williams. Williams is second on the team in targets and leads the team in air yards. His upside is capped because of the matchup, but he should have a solid floor, he can be started as a solid flex play. 

 

Update: Williams is now questionable to play after missing practice. If he is indeed out I would not trust any Raiders WRs. I would bump up Darren Waller who could be in for a 10+ target day. 

 

Darren Waller has been one of the best surprises in fantasy football. The TE landscape has been ugly and Waller is a ray of sunshine. Accounting for 29% of the team’s targets and is 3rd in the NFL in receptions. The Bears have yet to play a top-end TE like Waller, so it is difficult to say if they have been strong against the position or just a result of competition. 

Regardless, in watching the Raiders games this year, it is evident that they will do whatever it takes to get the ball in Waller’s hands. Even with the potential tough matchup, he should be started as a TE1, with one of the strongest floors in the NFL.

 

Even with the release of Ryan Grant, the Raiders pass-catchers behind Waller and Williams, do not interest me. Each is in a difficult matchup and does not have the guaranteed volume that the guys above have. None should be started. 

 

 

-Matt Perri (@MattPerri91, R: MattPerri)