Broncos@Chargers
Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 6th at 4:05 pm EST
Location: Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson, CA
Betting Odds: LAC -6.5, 41 total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Sleeper Spotlight: Geremy Davis
Denver Broncos
Quarterback:
- Joe Flacco (Sit)
Joe Flacco has not been nearly as bad as I thought he would be to start the season. He had his best game of the year a week ago, racking up over 300 yards along with 3 touchdowns against a tough Jaguars defense. Although, he has exceeded my expectations and had a strong performance he still hasn’t put himself on the weekly fantasy radar. Given the scarcity of QBs, if you are in a 2QB league he could be started as a low-end QB2.
Running Backs:
- Philip Lindsay (Start/RB3)
- Royce Freeman (Start/Flex)
It is a full-blown committee in Denver. ESPN’s Mike Clay looked at the split between Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. Here is how the pairs season has shaken out so far: (Snaps/Carries/Targets/Routes)
- Philip Lindsay: 135/54/19/67
- Royce Freeman: 134/42/19/69
That is about as even as you can get in terms of a shared backfield. Unfortunately, for fantasy fans, this means this backfield is unpredictable week-to-week. Lindsay is the only of the two that have gotten a TD, in his 2 TD performance week 3 against Green Bay. However, both have gotten close to even split of red zone carries at 11-7 in favor of Lindsay. Their opponents this week have been up and down for run defense. They were dominated by Marlon Mack, then they shut down Kerryon Johnson and Carlos Hyde, but then surrendered over 4.0 YPC to the Dolphins. I lean towards them being a mediocre run defense. According to Football Outsiders, they have surrendered 4.43 YPC (12th of 32) to RBs with a stuffed rate of 16% (23rd of 32). It is not a bad matchup for either RB but with their current split, it is tough to trust them as more than RB3s.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends:
- Emmanuel Sanders (Start/WR3)
- Courtland Sutton (Start/WR3)
- DaeSean Hamilton (Sit)
- Noah Fant (Sit)
Courtland Sutton has come into his own in his second year in the NFL. Leading the Broncos in yards, 2nd in receptions and tied for the lead in receiving TDs. He has broken out and looks to continue against a beat-up Chargers defense. The only real threat in the Chargers secondary is Casey Hayward Jr. and I expect him to follow around Emmanuel Sanders. Leaving Sutton against Michael Davis, who was solid in his return from injury. It is a small sample against the Dolphins so it is difficult to determine if Davis is a true threat to Sutton. Contrary to most CBs Sutton has played, Davis is a large CB so Sutton may have difficulty using his body to dominate like he is used to. Even with an interesting matchup in Davis, Sutton should be fine. With Casey Hayward following Sanders, there could be some added looks for Sutton. He can be started as a solid WR3 with WR2 upside.
Emmanuel Sanders will be lining up against one of the best CBs in the NFL and it is not ideal for fantasy. Hayward has locked down every WR that he has played to start the year. That list of WRs includes T.Y. Hilton, Kenny Golladay, and DeAndre Hopkins. Hayward has not allowed a single WR to gain more than 40 yards on him and has not allowed more than 45 yards in his coverage in a single game. The last time Sanders was shadowed was week 3 against Jaire Alexander where he was held to 2 catches for 10 yards. I do not love this matchup or situation for Sanders, but I still believe he is a start. He is getting red zone targets from Flacco and is a top WR who has beaten top CBs before. He is a WR3 for me and should be started as such.
Noah Fant made an impressive play to score a TD a week ago, but besides that, there was not much else. He has yet to eclipse 40 yards in a game this year or more than 5 targets. He is always a big-play threat because of his freakish athleticism but is not a trustworthy fantasy asset.
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback:
- Philip Rivers (Start/QB1)
Besides an uncharacteristically bad game against the Lions, Philip Rivers has been one of fantasy’s most consistent QBs. This he gets a Broncos defense who just lost one of their best pass rushers, Bradley Chubb, for the season to a torn ACL. Chris Harris Jr. is still one of the league’s premier lockdown CBs and will still get Rivers full attention. The Broncos have only allowed 200 yards passing per game, and not once over 300 yards. The key to beating the Broncos has been on the ground, not through the air. The Chargers have had a balanced approach, but may tweak it this week which could limit Rivers upside. Rivers is still a good a decent start and is a QB1 for this week and going forward.
Running Backs:
- Melvin Gordon (Start/RB2)
- Austin Ekeler (Start/RB2)
- Troymaine Pope (Sit)
After playing 0 snaps in his return to the NFL, Melvin Gordon figures to take a bigger share of the Chargers RB touches. It is the perfect game to get back into the swing of things. In the first 4 weeks, the Broncos have surrendered on average 149.5 rushing yards a game. The stat lines for opposing RB1s this season have been:
- Josh Jacobs: 23/85/2 (Rushes/YDs/TDs)
- David Montgomery: 18/62/1
- Jamaal Williams + Aaron Jones: 22/78/2
- Leonard Fournette: 27/225/0
They now lose one of their best defensive players in Bradley Chubb. I do not expect the Chargers to give Gordon his usual workload but I think he will end up in the range of 15 carries and all the goal-line work. The rest will go to Austin Ekeler. Ekeler will no longer earn workhorse duties that we had been accustomed to over the 1st quarter to the season. He will likely see his workload continue to dwindle as Gordon gets eased back in the offense, but Ekeler will still have stand-alone value. Even last year, while Gordon played Ekeler still averaged 7+ touches a game and was extremely efficient. Both players are starting for me this week against a week run defense at home against Denver.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends:
- Keenan Allen (Start/WR1)
- Mike Williams (Start/WR3)
- Dontrelle Inman (Sit)
- Travis Benjamin (Sit)
- Lance Kendricks (Sit)
The Dolphins secondary plus Keenan Allen did not equal fantasy dominance. That was…unexpected. Albeit, his whole week would have been different if a 75 yard TD was not called back for a questionable offensive pass interference call. This week Allen will likely face the shadow coverage of Chris Harris Jr. CHJ has been one of the NFL’s top shutdown corners in the NFL through the first 4 weeks. It will be an incredible matchup to watch from a real-life perspective. For fantasy, it will be one of Allen’s toughest matchups, but it does not change his designation. He is a start and should be started as a WR1. Last year, when he played the Broncos and CHJ he put up 9/89/1 and 4/64/0. The second of the two is nothing to write home about, but I would consider that his floor. Allen has the second-most air yards in the NFL paired with a 33% target share and a whopping 77% WOPR, which is the highest in the NFL. Fade the defensive matchup and expect another strong outing from Allen.
Mike Williams missed last week’s matchup against the Dolphins with a back injury. Given how poor the Dolphins are, the Chargers likely held Williams out as a precaution and I believe we will see him back this week. If Williams is indeed back this week he finds himself in a solid matchup. He will not see much if any, of CHJ and will get a combination of players. The Broncos lost Kareem Jackson to the IR, Issac Yiadom has been a liability, and De’Vante Bausby has been average. Whoever the Broncos decide to use on Williams will be at a disadvantage. With CHJ on Allen and Hunter Henry hurt, I expect Williams to get around a 20+% share of the team’s targets and a chunk of their targets inside the 20. Keep an eye on his status, if he is good to go he is a WR3 with a solid floor and upside combo.
If Williams is back, the secondary options on the Chargers beside Allen lose almost all fantasy relevance. If Williams is out for a second straight week, and Dontrelle Inman on IR, Geremy Davis becomes a sneaky flier. He commanded only 2 targets with Williams out last game, but now with no Inman too he could get more looks.
-Matt Perri (@MattPerri91, R: MattPerri)
Would you start Brisset over Cousins?
Ertz a Start for the Eagles? Don’t see him either way
Sounds like a salty Falcons fan with that Patriots jab. Word of advice, it doesn’t look good on you to be putting your personal feelings into these columns. It just makes you come off as a homer.
Yeah that hit on Allen wasnt dirty at all. Allens momentum was going foward and could have picked up the first down without the second hit. Also he isnt defenseless if he takes off and runs. Rbs get hit like that all the time.