Sit/Start Week 5: Reviewing All the Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Colts@Chiefs

 

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, October 6th at 8:20 pm EST

Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Betting Odds: KC -8.5 via Oddsshark

Network: NBC

Sleeper Spotlight: Demarcus Robinson

 

Kansas City Chiefs

 

Quarterback 

• Patrick Mahomes (Start)

 

So, I guess he isn’t perfect. Patrick Mahomes was held to zero touchdowns (passing or rushing) for the first time as a starter last week. I don’t think that’s going to happen two weeks in a row. We shouldn’t spend too much time on Mahomes. Against the Colts defense, he should produce elite fantasy numbers like he always does. The Colts are 24th in DVOA against the pass and Mahomes looks improved from last year somehow. He is average 10 intended air yards per pass (6th in the NFL) and leads the league in the percentage of his downfield passes. Even while pushing the ball, he is still extremely accurate. His actual completion percentage is 4.5% higher than what NextGenStats expects his completion percentage to be. Just keep rolling with him.

 

Running Backs 

• LeSean McCoy (Start/RB1)
• Darrel Williams (TBD)
• Damien Williams (TBD)

 

LeSean McCoy has been brought back to life with the Chiefs. While he wasn’t as washed as most made him out to be, playing under Andy Reid again has helped rejuvenate his career. Reid has put McCoy in favorable situations. He has only faced eight or more defenders in the box on 7.5% of his carries. The Colts defense is dead last in DVOA against the run. McCoy will find plenty of success on the ground this week, even while splitting carries. That brings us to Darrel Williams and Damien Williams. I have them both marked as TBD because it is not clear whether Damien will play this week. If he’s out, Darrell will see a nice role and will be startable as an RB2 in this easy matchup. Darrel has come in and played well. Darrel played 51% of the snaps last week, handled the two-minute drill, and ran more routes than McCoy. That is a valuable role on this juggernaut. If Damien is active, I’m not sure what to do. Will Reid give the role back to Damien completely or will they split the work after McCoy? It is impossible to know right now. I would start Darrel if Damien is out but would look to avoid the situation if Damien plays.

 

Wide Receivers/Tight End

• Sammy Watkins (Start/WR2)
• Demarcus Robinson (Start/FLEX)
• Mecole Hardman (Start/FLEX)
• Travis Kelce (Start)

 

The Chiefs know how to build around their franchise quarterback. This receiving group consists of explosive athletes and/or YAC producers. Sammy Watkins leads the team in targets. He hasn’t had a strong showing since week one but is consistently involved each week. Watkins averages nine YAC per reception, which is seventh in the NFL. Number one on that list is Mecole Hardman, who averages a monstrous 11.4 YAC per reception. Hardman is acting as a true deep threat in this offense and is a weekly FLEX play because of it. He is in the Will Fuller mold, with a breakout game possible at any moment. Demarcus Robinson had a rough game last week if you look at the box score. He had four catches for 35 yards, but that does not tell the whole story. Robinson totaled 165 air yards last week, which was second in the NFL for week four. Robinson also is second in the NFL in average intended air yards per target with 18.2. Robinson might have had a down week last week but should bounce back. Travis Kelce is the most consistent TE in the NFL. He is the only consensus top-three TE from draft season living up to his draft capital. Unless you somehow have a better option, play Kelce in this nice matchup where the Colts may continue to be without star LB Darius Leonard.

 

Indianapolis Colts

 

Quarterback

• Jacoby Brissett (Sit)

 

Jacoby Brissett has filled in admirably for the retired Andrew Luck. The Colts have been able to win with him, though he hasn’t been the driver of that success. Brissett has put up pretty mediocre numbers as the Colts transition their offense to a run-based attack. This game looks to be a shootout, which we would want to start Brissett. But the Chiefs have a top 10 pass defense according to DVOA, Brissett could easily disappoint like he did last week against a much weaker Raiders defense. I wouldn’t play Brissett unless you need a streaming option.

 

Running Backs 

• Marlon Mack (Start if healthy)
• Nyheim Hines (Sit)

 

So you know how I said the Colts were the worst run defense in the NFL by DVOA? Well, guess who is second. That’s right, it’s the Chiefs. The Colts want to be a run focused team, which plays into the strength of their team. Quenton Nelson and the rest of the line are bruisers that clear the way for Marlon Mack, who has been dominating the snaps until last week. Mack only played three snaps in the second half last week, which most chalked up to an apparent ankle injury. But Mack denied that was the reason, he said that it was a coach’s decision. Nyheim Hines is the passing back and took control of the backfield with the Colts needing to play catchup with the Raiders. As long as Mack is healthy (as he claims), he is an RB1 in a great matchup.

 

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

• T.Y. Hilton (Start if healthy)
• Eric Ebron (Sit)
• Jack Doyle (Sit)
• Parris Campbell/Zach Pascal/Chester Rogers (Sits)

 

This receiving corps is a bit of a mess. T.Y. Hilton missed last week and it is still unclear whether he will play this week. Without Hilton, there is no one I would start comfortably. Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle lead the team in targets but cannibalize each other’s fantasy value. The WRs outside of Hilton are all low-end options with no way to discern who will have a better week. Also, the receiving numbers for the Colts look solid last week against the Raiders, but those were inflated. The Colts were forced to give up the run game and pick up the pace. Our discussion on the Chiefs’ defense from the last two position groups shows that this matchup lends itself to the Colts preferred offense. The Colts are going to try to slow this game down as much as they can. If that doesn’t work, I’m not sure how much success Brissett will have. 

 

-Frank Costanzo (@FrankQBList)