Jaguars@Panthers
Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 6th at 1:00 pm EST
Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Betting Odds: CAR -3.5, 41 Total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Sleeper Spotlight: James O’Shaughnessy
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback:
- Gardner Minshew (Sit, Low QB2)
Coming into this game as a road-underdog with a low game total of 41, this game doesn’t set up to be a fantasy-friendly for Minshew. The Panthers have given up the least amount of passing yards in the NFL (min four games) but have given up a healthy 4.9 yards per carry, thus setting themselves up as a run-funnel. The Panthers lead the league in both sacks and QB Hits. The Jaguars offensive line is 19th in terms of adjusted sack rate; this matchup sets up to favor the Panthers. Look for Minshew to continue to try and get the ball out quickly and hit higher percentage throws. He is sixth in the NFL in completion percentage (min 50 attempts) and middle of the pack in terms of average intended air yards at 7.7. This doesn’t set up as a good matchup for Minshew on a team that wants to run the ball more so than throw it (Jax 25th in pass attempts so far).
Running Backs:
- Leonard Fournette (Start, Low RB1)
- Ryquell Armstead (Sit, end of bench/wire)
As noted earlier, the Panthers create a run-funnel defense which is good news for Fournette. A true three-down back, Fournette is top-seven at the position in carries, targets, and percentage of touches at RB for his team. Fournette has some positive regression coming his way as he is fourth in the league with 13 red-zone touches but has yet to find the endzone. The Panthers have announced that stud defensive linemen Kawann Short will be out for the season, enhancing the already good matchup. I’m locking Fournette in as a low RB1 for this matchup. Armstead is nothing more than a handcuff for Fournette at this point, playing less than 20% of the snaps in each game (no snaps in two games).
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
- DJ Chark (sit, WR3/flex)
- Dede Westbrook (start, WR4/flex)
- Chris Conley (sit, WR5/wire)
- James O’Shaughnessy (sit, wire)
Chark is tied with Westbrook for the team lead in targets at 26 but Chark is getting more valuable targets downfield at 12.3 yards per target (eighth in the NFL). He should be shadowed by stud cornerback James Bradberry who has blanketed receivers all year not allowing a touchdown while being top-ten in yards per reception, yards per target, and average separation against him. Chark and his 4.3-forty has the wheels to outrun Bradberry deep but will probably struggle this game unless he can hit on a big play. Westbrook has played in the slot 77% of the time and had his most productive non-touchdown scoring game of the year last week. With Minshew needing to get the ball out quickly and Chark blanketed by Bradberry, I like Westbrook to lead this team in receiving in week five. Conley has only had 12 targets in Minshew’s three full games as a starter. He can always make a big play with his blazing speed but doesn’t see enough volume on a team that doesn’t like to throw the ball downfield a lot. O’Shaughnessy is quietly the TE15 in PPR leagues. He has been splitting time and targets with Geoff Swaim but has been fortunate enough to score twice this year already. He can be ignored in fantasy due to his low expected volume.
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback:
- Kyle Allen (Sit, low QB2)
Allen was a miserable fantasy quarterback in week four. He was the QB31 on the week, considering two teams were on a bye that means a backup quarterback and a starter on the same team out-produced him. Fast-forward to week five. This matchup isn’t as imposing as it has been in years past. The Jaguars defense is bottom-ten in both yards and yards per attempt given up to opposing passing games. They have given up 300+ yards and three touchdowns to both Patrick Mahomes and Joe Flacco but did shut down Deshaun Watson and Marcus Mariota with no touchdowns allowed. They have brought the pass-rush well this year, as they rank top-seven in both sacks and QB hits. It will be interesting to see how pace goes in this game. Carolina is the second-fastest in situation neutral pace and Jacksonville is dead last. Allen can’t be trusted this week in standard leagues.
Running Backs:
- Christian McCaffrey (start, High RB1)
The Jaguars run defense has been above average so far, giving up 4.1 yards per carry on 98 rushing attempts. The Panthers have a below-average run-blocking unit on the offensive line, and according to football outsiders, they rank 20th. The Panthers are relying on McCaffrey so much without starting quarterback Cam Newton. He has 27 and 37 touches in the two games that he has missed so far. Through four games, He is number one in carries, targets, red zone touches and fantasy points per game at his position. This isn’t great on paper matchup for McCaffrey but that doesn’t matter for him as he is a top-two or three option every week at running back.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends:
- Greg Olsen (start, TE1)
- DJ Moore (sit, low WR3/flex)
- Curtis Samuel (sit, low WR3/flex)
Olsen, Moore, and Samuel have 29,31, and 31 targets between them, and the next closest on the team has 15. We need to see if Jalen Ramsey is going to play, as he is one of the best cornerbacks in the league and would effectively eliminate Moore this week for fantasy purposes. Olsen looks great so far this season as the TE 7 in PPR formats through four games. It is a bit concerning Olsen’s targets have dipped from 18 in two games with Newton to 11 in two with Allen at quarterback. In a game that will probably lack a lot of scoring, and the offense running heavily through McCaffrey, Olsen is a low-upside TE1. Like Olsen, Moore has seen a dip in targets under Allen, going from 24 with Newton to seven with Allen. If Ramsey plays, I would want to sit Moore as he shouldn’t be looked at as more than a low WR3/4 with his expected volume. Samuel only plays the slot 18% of the time which means he will see stud corner A.J. Buoye if Ramsey plays this week. Samuel has had seven targets in each game with Allen, leading the receiving group. He has produced the WR35 numbers in the two weeks with Allen under center. I would look to avoid playing him if I have other options this week because the way to throw on the Jaguars is with slot receivers, not on the perimeter.
–Kevin Taylor (@ktbeast918)
Would you start Brisset over Cousins?
Ertz a Start for the Eagles? Don’t see him either way
Sounds like a salty Falcons fan with that Patriots jab. Word of advice, it doesn’t look good on you to be putting your personal feelings into these columns. It just makes you come off as a homer.
Yeah that hit on Allen wasnt dirty at all. Allens momentum was going foward and could have picked up the first down without the second hit. Also he isnt defenseless if he takes off and runs. Rbs get hit like that all the time.