Falcons@Texans
Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 6th at 1:00 pm EST
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Betting Odds: HOU -5, 48.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: FOX
Sleeper Spotlight: Duke Johnson Jr.
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback
- Matt Ryan (Start)
The Falcons offense has been pretty average this year and that applies to Matt Ryan too. He has thrown for over 300 yards in each game, but the majority has come from garbage time. He has seven turnovers in four games, which stems from facing a lot of pressure. The Falcons devoted a large number of resources this offseason to improve their offensive line, but injuries have plagued them. Houston’s defense is rated 13th in DVOA through so far this season. J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus have been game-wrecking and Ryan will likely be under pressure this week. Because the Falcons defense has been miserable, Ryan will be throwing to keep up like in other games this year. Whether it is from garbage time or not, Ryan should produce solid passing numbers again this week.
Running Backs
- Devonta Freeman (Start/RB2)
- Ito Smith (Sit)
After struggling the first two weeks of the season, Devonta Freeman has started to pick things up. It started last week when Ito Smith got a concussion and Freeman played the majority of the snaps. This week Freeman was able to contribute in the passing game. Freeman has dominated the receiving work out of the backfield, getting 21 out of the 30 targets to running backs. But the Falcons aren’t doing Freeman any favors in the ground game. He is seeing eight or more defenders in the box on 23.4% of his rushes, which is 12th worst in the NFL for running backs with over 30 carries. Also, Smith is getting the goal line carries, as evidenced by his three red-zone touches (including a touchdown) to Freeman’s zero. Freeman will need to lean more on his receiving work to continue fantasy relevance, especially this week. The Texans have the 10th best run defense by DVOA. Unless the Falcons start to make some changes (not likely.. cough Dirk Koetter cough), Freeman should see some patented Matt Ryan check downs.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
- Julio Jones (Start/DUH)
- Mohamed Sanu (Sit)
- Calvin Ridley (Start/Flex)
- Austin Hooper (Start/TE1)
Should we be starting Julio Jones? Hmmm.. YES. Jones has commanded 32.2% of the Falcons’ air yards and is first in targets. The Texans’ secondary will struggle to keep Jones in check, just like every other secondary in the league. You always play Jones. I listed Mohamed Sanu second here because he surprisingly is second in targets for WRs, edging out Calvin Ridley by eight. This is a bit concerning for Ridley owners, but I wouldn’t worry too much. Last week was a check down bonanza for Matt Ryan, who peppered Sanu, Austin Hooper, and Freeman with targets (12, 11, and 8 respectively). Also, Ridley’s game doesn’t lend itself to high target numbers. He is more of a downfield threat, averaging 14.7 intended air yards per target (12th amongst WRs and TEs with 15 or more targets). Ridley should have a stronger game against the Texans this week. Hooper has had a nice start fantasy-wise in a weak TE landscape. Hooper is second on the team in targets and tied for first in red-zone targets with Jones. With the Falcons defense not likely to improve, Hooper will be a consistent fantasy option with the Falcons in catch up mode throughout the season.
Houston Texans
Quarterback
- Deshaun Watson (Start)
Deshaun Watson is coming off a disappointing start against a strong Panthers defense, but he looks to be in a bounce-back spot this week. The Falcons are 21st in pass defense DVOA and just allowed the Titans offense to do whatever they wanted. The Falcons is a defense that we will want to target all year along with the Arizona Cardinals. Watson’s struggles have come from the lack of pass protection. He has already taken 18 sacks on the year, but that shouldn’t be an issue this week. When afforded time, Watson is still as devastating as ever. He is seventh in average intended air yards per pass (9.8 yards). Going against the Falcons’ weak defensive line should allow Watson to provide strong fantasy production this week.
Running Backs
- Carlos Hyde (Sit)
- Duke Johnson Jr. (Start/FLEX)
Carlos Hyde has surprised during his time with the Texans. On his fourth team in less than a year, Hyde has been a solid option on the ground for the Texans doing his best Lamar Miller impression. He has outproduced and out-touched Duke Johnson Jr. on the year (57 touches to 31). Though the Falcon’s pass defense has been a mess, they are quietly seventh in DVOA against the run. Deion Jones’ return to the lineup has helped steady the Falcons defense in the middle of the field. While Hyde only faces a loaded box on 7.7% of his carries, I do not think this is the right matchup to start him. But if there was anything to learn from last week’s game against the Panthers, it is that Johnson Jr. still has a role in close or catch up situations. Johnson Jr. had his highest snap percentage of the season last week with 65%. If the Falcons can move the ball up and down the field, the Texans will have to keep pace. Johnson Jr. would be the best option out of the backfield for that situation. Johnson Jr. is still an effective player. Per Ian Hartitz, Johnson Jr. is averaging 7.2 yards per touch which is second among all running backs with at least 20 touches. If the Texans are in tighter matchups, Johnson Jr. will get closer to the running back many drafted him to be.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
- Deandre Hopkins (Start/ALSO DUH)
- Will Fuller (Start/FLEX)
- Kenny Stills (Sit)
- Keke Coutee (Sit)
- Jordan Akins (Sit)
If the Deandre Hopkins owner in your league is looking to sell, then get on the phones now. Same for Will Fuller. Both receivers are top 15 in the NFL in air yards but have come up short in actual production. Watson narrowly missed both last week on would-be long touchdowns (75 yarder for Fuller). As discussed earlier, Watson should have much more success this week, which means blow up games for both Hopkins and Fuller. Get them now while you can. Kenny Stills hurt his hamstring last week and it is unclear if he will suit up for week five as of writing this. Keke Coutee will see a jump in snaps due to Stills’s absence, though Hopkins and Fuller will likely be the ones to see an increase in targets. Coutee has been quiet so far this year and cannot be trusted until he produces some. Jordan Akins had a big game in week three but then returned to fantasy irrelevance last week. The Falcons have been tough against opposing TEs, so I think he should stay on the waiver wire this week.
-Frank Costanzo (@FrankQBList)
Would you start Brisset over Cousins?
Ertz a Start for the Eagles? Don’t see him either way
Sounds like a salty Falcons fan with that Patriots jab. Word of advice, it doesn’t look good on you to be putting your personal feelings into these columns. It just makes you come off as a homer.
Yeah that hit on Allen wasnt dirty at all. Allens momentum was going foward and could have picked up the first down without the second hit. Also he isnt defenseless if he takes off and runs. Rbs get hit like that all the time.