Buccaneers@Saints
Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 6th at 1:00 pm EST
Location: Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Betting Odds: NO -3, 47 Total via Oddsshark
Network: Fox
Sleeper Spotlight: Bobo Wilson
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback:
- Jameis Winston (Start, Fringe QB1)
Winston and the Buccaneers offense seem to be rolling now under new head coach Bruce Arians’ system. Winston is third in the NFL in both average completed air yards and average intended air yards. He is throwing the ball downfield at a high clip and connecting on those throws as well. The Saints pass defense has given up 8.4 yards per attempt, which is seventh-highest in the NFL. The Saints do boast a middle of the road pass rush, which has them ranked 17th in sack percentage but top-ten in QB hits. The last three complete games Winston has played against this defense, he has been the QB10/QB2/QB14. Winston does come with variance, as he has thrown five interceptions and fumbled twice through four games. Winston should be looked at as a volatile low QB1 / high QB2 for this matchup against the Saints.
Running Backs:
- Ronald Jones (Start, RB3/FLEX)
- Peyton Barber (sit, bench)
- Dare Ogunbowale (Sit, end of the bench, wire)
Jones seems to be getting the upper hand in this Buccaneers backfield. He led the group in touches (20) for Jones to Barber’s nine. His snap share percentage has also increased the last three games going from 12>30>49 while Barber’s has gone down in that stretch 65>36>26. Jones is shaping up to be the only playable back on this team, getting 15 and 20 touches the last two weeks. His lack of a passing game role will keep him with a low floor (three targets through four games). The Saints run defense isn’t that imposing, giving up 4.5 yards per carry on 99 rushing attempts so far. However, they got stud defensive tackle, Sheldon Rankins, back in week four and then held the Ezekiel Elliott to 18 carries for 35 yards. Jones is an RB3/flex for me and will need a touchdown or a splash play to pay off most weeks with this type of usage. Barber can’t be played in any league because of his concerning usage/snap trends. Ogunbowle has played roughly a quarter of the snaps and plays in obvious passing situations. He has 14 targets through four games but can be ignored in most leagues unless his role was to change.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
- Mike Evans (start, WR1/2)
- Chris Godwin (start, WR1)
- OJ Howard (sit, TE1/2)
- Cameron Brate (sit, TE2 )
It has been the Evans and Godwin show so far for the Bucs. They have 35 and 33 targets between them, which is more than double anyone else on the team. Evans has been the downfield threat. He is coming in seventh in the league in both average targeted air yards and percentage of his team’s air yards. Evans should square off against Marshon Lattimore most of the game. The last four meetings between the two Evans has had 4/86/0 > 7/147/1 > 5/55/0 > 1/13/0. Evans should be fired up as a WR1/2 based on elite volume and opportunity down the field. Godwin is the WR3 in PPR formats for four weeks. Turning in two top-five performances, including week four’s number one overall receiver, Godwin has a great matchup in the slot against the Saints. They have given up 315 yards, 75% completions, and two touchdowns in the slot so far. Godwin is a WR1 for me in this great matchup versus the Saints. Howard hasn’t done anything to justify his top-five draft position at his position with 12 targets through four weeks, including only two red-zone looks. Howard is playing a ton (75%+ of snaps each week) but has been a terrible blocker (67th and 62nd in pass blocking and run-blocking at TE per pff) and is not getting a lot of opportunities in the passing game. Brate has 10 targets through four games and can be, ignored in standard leagues. None of the other Buccaneers receivers have garnered enough opportunity to watch in fantasy.
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback:
- Teddy Bridgewater (Sit, low QB2)
Bridgewater has been a strict game manager for the Saints while he starts for the injured Drew Brees. He has failed to crack 200 yards and only has two passing attempts more than 20 yards down the field. Bridgewater has an NFL low 5.5 average intended air yards and doesn’t have much of a ceiling in any matchup right now. In his three starts, the highest fantasy finish he has is QB22 in week three. The Bucs pass rush is decent, as they are ranked fifth in the league QB hits but are 19th in adjusted sack rate. Needless to say, Bridgewater can be avoided in our standard leagues.
Running Backs:
- Alvin Kamara (start, RB1)
- Latavius Murray (sit, end of bench/wire)
If you own Kamara you are starting him when he’s playing. The Buccaneers have formed a pass funnel defense, giving up the second-most passing yards in the league and an NFL-low 2.9 yards per carry on 81 attempts against them. The Bucs haven’t had a soft schedule in terms of running backs faced. They have shut down the 49ers strong running game and have stopped Saquon Barkley, Todd Gurley, and Christian McCaffrey on the ground so far this season. This doesn’t set up to be an efficient game for Kamara, but his locked in passing game usage (fourth-most targets among RB’s) and his red-zone role (13 looks to Murray’s two) keeps him an RB1 every week. Murray was expected to take on the Mark Ingram role of the past, but that has not been the case for four weeks. That may have been the case Drew Brees healthy but he isn’t right now. He has logged about a quarter of the snaps through four weeks and hasn’t carved out a red-zone role as noted above. He should be left out of your starting lineups and is droppable if you need the roster spot.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends:
- Micahel Thomas (start, WR1/2)
- Ted Ginn (sit, bench/wire)
- Jared Cook(sit, wire)
Bridgewater has only attempted two passes beyond 20 yards in his 2.5 games played this season. He also does not have over 200 yards and has been a strict game manager for the Saints. This is bad news for the Saints receivers. Everyone outside of Michael Thomas is unplayable right now and can be dropped if you need the roster space. Thomas has the second-highest target share and is the WR9 in PPR formats over the last three games. Thomas still has one of the highest floors in fantasy, churning out high-efficiency stat lines, and should be looked at as a WR1/2. Ginn has five targets in each of the last two games, but he lacks the efficiency of Thomas (two and three receptions on those targets) and isn’t getting targets deep as we are accustomed too with him. Cook is the TE33 this season and can be avoided in fantasy at the moment.
–Kevin Taylor (@ktbeast918)
Would you start Brisset over Cousins?
Ertz a Start for the Eagles? Don’t see him either way
Sounds like a salty Falcons fan with that Patriots jab. Word of advice, it doesn’t look good on you to be putting your personal feelings into these columns. It just makes you come off as a homer.
Yeah that hit on Allen wasnt dirty at all. Allens momentum was going foward and could have picked up the first down without the second hit. Also he isnt defenseless if he takes off and runs. Rbs get hit like that all the time.