Sit/Start Week 7: Reviewing All the Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game
Kickoff: Thursday, October 17th at 8:20 pm EST
Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Betting Odds: KC -3, 48.5 Total via Oddsshark
Network: NFL Network, Fox, Amazon Prime
Sleeper Spotlight: Royce Freeman
Kansas City Chiefs
- Patrick Mahomes (Start, high-QB1)
Mahomes is the QB5 on the season through six games after providing two “floor” games in back to back weeks, churning out QB10 results in the last two weeks. Mahomes is a QB1 no matter the matchup. The matchup this week isn’t great for Mahomes as the Broncos have yet to give up a top-12 QB result on the year. They also have given up the fewest overall fantasy points to the quarterback position. The Broncos defense is 11th in pressure but outside the top-20 in sacks and QB hits on the year. The Chiefs offensive line has done a solid job of keeping Mahomes healthy as they are top-five in the league in adjusted sack rate. This sets up as more of a floor game as the Broncos will surely try to control the time of possession and keep Mahomes and company off the field as the Texans did in week six. The Texans won the time of possession game 40-20 and the Chiefs only ran 16 second-half plays last week. Mahomes is a high-end QB1 every week right now but there are paths for this to be another floor game.
- Damien Williams (Start, flex)
- LeSean McCoy (Start, flex)
The last two weeks with Williams back healthy, Williams has been the RB35 in PPR leagues and McCoy has been the RB52. In Williams’s first game back he had 56% of the running back snaps to McCoy’s 22% thanks to McCoy fumbling and missing a key block early in the game. The Chiefs went back to McCoy this week as he logged a team-high 50% of the running back snaps to Williams’s 38% and out-touched him 10-2. They have five and four targets for the last two games as well. The Chiefs’ offensive line is 30th in rushing adjusted line yards and the Broncos have allowed a middling 4.3 yards per carry, which is middle of the pack. Interestingly, Football Outsiders have a defensive-adjusted yards above replacement metric and McCoy is 13th with a +52 and Williams is near the bottom with a -44 rating. This isn’t a great matchup and seems like a true-committee, but this is a top-notch offense so these backs remain flex options right now.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
- Tyreek Hill (Start, mid-WR1)
- Sammy Watkins (Sit, OUT)
- Demarcus Robinson (sit, WR 4/bench)
- Mecole Hardman (sit, bench)
- Byron Pringle (sit, bench/wire)
- Travis Kelce(Start, high TE1)
Hill only played half of the snaps in his first game back from a multi-week injury. He parlayed that into a team-high 10 targets, five receptions, 80 yards, and two touchdowns. He should draw stud-corner Chris Harris’s shadow coverage but should be fired up with confidence if you have him on your team. Watkins would step into the WR 2/slot role if he plays. It is hard to imagine him coming back to a full complement of snaps with a hamstring injury on a short week. I am viewing Watkins as a risky WR3/flex for this week. After Hill and Watkins, none of Robinson, Hardman, or Pringle would be playable as they would probably rotate somewhat and cannibalize the few targets they get from each other. Kelce is an every-week TE1 and still has positive touchdown regression coming his way. He has one touchdown on the year and no red zone touchdowns despite eight targets there. Only one TE has over 45 yards against the Broncos so the matchup isn’t great for Kelce. However, I want to bet on his talent and opportunity as he is top-five at his position in targets, deep targets (20+ yards), receiving yards, yards after the catch, and yards per target.
- Joe Flacco (Start, low/mid QB2)
Flacco is the QB22 through six games in fantasy this season. The Broncos game plan is pretty simple most weeks, don’t ask Flacco to throw too much and run the ball often. He has more than one touchdown and over 300 yards in just one game this year. This Chiefs defense has allowed top-10 QB finishes in four of their six games this season. They also are 30th in the league in pressure on the quarterback and bottom-10 in sacks and QB hits. The statuesque Flacco has traditionally struggled under pressure but has excelled with a clean pocket. The matchup is there for Flacco to produce but he has only done so in one of six games this year. I like him in two QB leagues this week.
- Royce Freeman (start, RB2)
- Phillip Lindsay (start, RB1/2)
The Broncos remain committed to this two-man running back by committee. Freeman and Lindsay have both been fantasy viable options so far. Lindsay is the RB13 and Freeman is the RB26, and that separation is largely due to Lindsay’s four touchdowns to Freeman’s zero. Freeman is due for some positive touchdown regression as he has only three less red zone looks than Lindsay but no score to show for it. A true committee, targets are 26 each Lindsay, red-zone looks are 17 >14 Lindsay, and Freeman has logged more snaps the last three weeks 62, 54, 61 percent to Lindsay’s 45,46,47 percent. Lindsay has gotten 15+ touches in five of six games and Freeman has done the same in four of six games. The Broncos offensive line is sixth in rushing adjusted line yards on the year and Kansas City has gotten mauled by opposing rushing attacks giving up top-three rushing yards per attempt (5.2) and rushing touchdowns (8) through six games. The Colts and the Texans laid the blueprint out on how to beat the Chiefs by controlling the clock, running the ball often, and keeping last year’s MVP Patrick Mahomes off the field as much as possible. I would be happy to start either of these guys if I own them.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends:
- Courtland Sutton (Start, mid-WR2)
- Emmanuel Sanders (Start, lowWR3/flex)
- Noah Fant (Sit, mid-TE2)
- DaeSean Hamilton (Sit, wire)
Sutton comes into week seven as the WR12 in PPR formats. He is top-ten at WR in receiving yards, completed air-yards, and percentage of his team’s air yards. He is also number one at receiver in red-zone receptions. To sum this up, Sutton is getting a lot of volumes both downfield and in the red-zone and the numbers back up his strong start. With his locked-in volume (7+ targets each week) and a solid matchup on tap, fire him up confidently if you own him. Sanders seemed to avoid a serious knee injury this past week and has a legit chance to suit up against the Chiefs according to reports. Sanders has 10 or fewer yards and four or fewer targets in three of his last four games. He left with an injury last week but still logged 40% of the snaps before leaving. The matchup is decent for him but he can’t be trusted as more than a low-WR3/flex this week. Fant hasn’t topped 40 yards yet this season and has averaged just 20 routes run the last two games. That coincides with the Broncos playing with the lead for much of those games. We know the Broncos will want to run the ball a ton against the Chiefs and control the time of possession. If they can accomplish that Fant will likely have very low volume. Hamilton can be avoided completely with 17 targets through six games.
–Kevin Taylor (@ktbeast918)