Sit/Start Week 7: Reviewing All the Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

49ers@Redskins

 

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, October 20th at 1:00 pm EST

Location: FedEx Field, Landover, MD

Betting Odds: SF -10, 42 Total via Oddsshark

Network: FOX

Sleeper Spotlight: Deebo Samuel

 

San Francisco 49ers

 

Quarterback

• Jimmy Garappolo (Sit)

If someone told you before the season that the 49ers would be undefeated going into week seven, you would have probably guessed that Jimmy Garappolo finally put it all together. But that hasn’t been the 49ers’ path to success so far. Their defense and rushing offense have been the driver, while Jimmy G hasn’t been much more than a game manager in 2019. His average depth of target is 6.4 yards, which is in the bottom four in the NFL. Everyone is aware of Kyle Shanahan’s ability to scheme up some easy looks. His play-calling has provided Garappolo the third-highest expected completion percentage in the NFL. While the matchup against the Redskins’ 24th ranked pass defense by DVOA is appealing, the game sets up to follow the 49ers’ plan of attack. Run the ball and play great defense. Garappolo shouldn’t be asked to do much more than he has all year. So if you need a QB this week, there are better streaming options available.

 

Running Backs

• Tevin Coleman (Start/RB2)
• Matt Breida (Start/FLEX)

 

If you held on to Tevin Coleman while he was out (like me), you are now getting rewarded. Coleman saw his snap percentage rise to 55% last week, up from 33% last week. He handled all seven of the red zone touches for the backfield (six rushes and a target). Surprisingly, Coleman ran more routes than Matt Breida as well (16 to 12). If this is the normal workload going forward, Coleman will be a locked-in fantasy starter. Breida handled the same snap share from the week prior. Coleman’s increase was a result of Raheem Mostert dropping down to only a seven percent snap share. If Mostert stays that low, Breida will also continue to be a solid FLEX play. Breida is extremely explosive (he has the fastest two plays of the past two seasons) and can make any touch count. The Redskins have the 20th ranked rush defense, so don’t expect them to put up much of a fight. Shanahan will find ways to get both backs into space and they will see plenty of carries late to salt the game away.

 

Wide Receivers/Tight End

• George Kittle (Start/TE1)
• Dante Pettis (Sit)
• Marquise Goodwin (Sit)
• Deebo Samuel (Sit)

 

With all of the rushing success, the 49ers pass offense can only support one consistent fantasy option. George Kittle is the guy. While he hasn’t lived up to his draft capital yet, that should change soon. Kittle is still seeing plenty of volume. He has led the team in targets in all but one game. He hasn’t lost his ability to produce after the catch either, sporting a 6.7 YAC per reception. His only problem has been finding the endzone, which has carried over from last year. Keep the faith with Kittle, the touchdowns will come. The 49ers receiving corps has been a mess. For most of the season, the 49ers deployed their receivers as a committee, with five players getting anywhere from 40% to 65% of the snaps. This has changed the last two weeks with Dante Pettis, Marquise Goodwin, and Deebo Samuel all taking the majority of the snaps. Pettis has seen his snap share rise each week up to a season-high 72% last week. Goodwin is still the team’s perimeter deep threat with a 13.6 aDOT. Samuel led the receivers in routes run last week. I picked him as the sleeper for this game because if he continues to lead the team in routes, he will eventually have another pop game. So until then, each receiver could be decent bench options to stash for a game where the 49ers are forced to pass. This week is not that week.

 

Washington Redskins

 

Quarterback

• Case Keenum, for now? (Sit lol)

 

Do I need to detail this one? Case Keenum is what he is at this point in his career. He will push the ball down the field a bit (he has a higher aDOT than Garappolo) but will get himself into trouble by doing so. Granted, he has not been put in the best position to succeed with Jay Gruden being fired (he’s pretty underrated as a play-caller) and the Redskins’ offensive line forced to start Ereck Flowers. Speaking of Flowers, how many sacks do we think the 49ers will rack up this week? Five? Six? More? Dwayne Haskins has to be starting again by the end of this season, but it is the right move to keep him out against the best pass defense by DVOA in the NFL so far (yes they are above the Patriots defense against the pass).

 

Running Backs

• Adrian Peterson (Sit)
• Chris Thompson (Sit)

 

Adrian Peterson found himself as the focal point of the Redskins’ offense once again last week. Interim head coach Bill Callahan wanted to make sure the whole world knew he wanted to run the football and they did so against the Dolphins. That game plan is not likely to work again this week. While the 49ers have the twelfth best-run defense by DVOA, their defensive line will have a field day against the Redskins’ makeshift line. Peterson is a solid play when you can bank on the carries, but the Redskins are going to be forced to pass this week. With the focus on the run last week, Chris Thompson only played 13 snaps and saw three targets. It’s tough to say for sure whether this is a new trend under Callahan or if it had to do with the game script. Either way, it is tough to trust Thompson, but he has some value when Peterson doesn’t. The yin to his yang. I have him as a sit this week because the 49ers defense is legit and he is dealing with a case of turf toe. The Redskins worked out a few backs in case Thompson has to miss the game. If the Patriots defense wasn’t putting up all the points they have been, the 49ers defense would be the one everyone is talking about. I can’t trust either back against them.

 

Wide Receivers/Tight End

• Terry McLaurin (Start/FLEX)
• Paul Richardson (Sit)
• Trey Quinn (Sit)
• Vernon Davis/Jeremy Sprinkle (Sit)

 

If the NFL Draft was going to be redone today, Terry McLaurin is probably the first WR taken. He has been a godsend for this Redskins team and the lone bright spot. His aDOT is 16.4 yards which are fifth in the NFL. He has at least 7 targets in every game. Those two stats together equal number one receiver usage. He has scored a few more TDs than his workload would normally produce, so it’s fair to expect some regression there. The matchup isn’t great for McLaurin, but if you have him it’s difficult to bench him. His speed gives him a solid floor because he only needs one play to produce. I think he should be able to put up FLEX numbers. Now for the rest of this receiving group, yikes. Paul Richardson and Trey Quinn are low floors and low ceiling options. Last week, no receiver other than McLaurin had more than 24 yards. Vernon Davis was out with a concussion and it is unknown if he will be able to suit up this week. Jeremy Sprinkle didn’t do much in his absence. Please do not start any of these options.

 

-Frank Costanzo (@FrankQBList; Reddit: Zzzonked92)