Chargers@Bears
Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 27th at 1:00 pm EST
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Betting Odds: CHI -4, 40 Total via Oddsshark
Network: FOX
Sleeper Spotlight: Anthony Miller
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback
- Philip Rivers (Sit)
Philip Rivers has been average for fantasy and real football so far this season. Rivers is the middle of the pack in basically every advanced stat, including intended air yards per pass, completion percentage over expectation, aggressiveness, and throws to the sticks (all on NextGenStats). The Chargers have had their patented injury luck and have been a mess on offense as a result. Rivers has not been able to elevate the team to overcome these issues. I mean he couldn’t beat Ryan Tannehill (though that is a bit on Melvin Gordon, and we will get to him…). If you drafted Rivers, he’s been about what you expected wit the draft capital it cost to acquire him. He’s startable in the right matchups, but I would avoid using him this week against a strong Bears defense.
Running Back
- Melvin Gordon (Sit)
- Austin Ekeler (Start/Flex)
I may catch some flak for that (I’m ready for it). But have you guys watched Melvin Gordon? Please guess what his longest run is this season. The correct answer is seven. All plays resulting in touch for Gordon average to 2.3 yards per play. 2.3! He had 18 touches for 23 yards last week. Has anyone bet on themselves and lost this badly? Yes, the Chargers offensive line is terrible, but Austin Ekeler was still able to produce. Matter of fact, Ekeler is still producing. Anthony Lynn decided that he needed to find ways to get both backs on the field, so he has made Ekeler a receiver almost full time. He ran 20 snaps out wide or in the slot last week after having 12 snaps out wide the week before when the Chargers were playing catch up. The Chargers are second in the NFL in targets to their RBs, which makes sense with Ekeler’s usage. These aren’t just dump-offs. Ekeler is going downfield on double moves and roasting corners. Ekeler still has value going forward. The Chargers defense has been ravaged by injury and is performing like it. They will be in pass-heavy game scripts often (maybe not this week against the Bears), which sets up for Ekeler to keep playing. We can’t play Gordon until he shows us that he can carry the ball double-digit yards, but we can keep starting new WR2 Austin Ekeler.
Wide Receivers/Tight End
- Keenan Allen (Start/WR1)
- Mike Williams (Sit)
- Hunter Henry (Start)
The Bears defense is still eighth against the pass by DVOA, but just got shredded by Teddy Bridgewater and the Saints. So while we should have lowered expectations, Keenan Allen can still have a productive week. He only put up 61 yards last week, but his usage was incredible. Allen racked up 209 air yards, which led the NFL last week. He is getting targeted downfield more often than he has in the past with a 12.2 TAY for the season (2.7 more than his previous high). If the usage holds up, there will be more boom weeks than not and the Bears look like they may be packing up the season. Mike Williams has not had the break out many were expecting this season. He is still a deep threat, averaging 14.6 TAY but that has been trending down along with his targets the last two weeks. The reason? The return of Hunter Henry. Henry has returned to the lineup and commanded a large target share immediately, which has caused Williams to go overlooked a bit. He only had 48 air yards last week and at this point, you are hoping for a touchdown if you start him. Henry meanwhile has hit the ground running and hasn’t shown any lingering effects of his injury. He is here to save you from TE Hell and a must-start every week.
Chicago Bears
Quarterback
- Mitch Trubisky (Sit.. I mean were you considering this?)
That was certainly a performance on Sunday for Mitch Bortles, just not the one that Bears fans wanted to see. Though I will say it is not all on Trubisky. The Bears ended last week with 252 total yards and racked up 151 of those on their last two drives. They are the only team to not have a single game with over 300 total yards of offense. Almost unfathomable. So, a lot of that is on Matt Nagy. But Trubisky hasn’t helped himself, he is averaging the sixth-lowest targeted air yards (down by Luke Falk). Mitch also barely put up a usable fantasy week when the Bears rushed the ball seven times. Time for the Bears to move one and I hope you did a long time ago.
Running Backs
- David Montgomery (Sit)
- Tarik Cohen (Sit)
As I stated before, the Bears ran the ball seven times on Sunday. Matt Nagy says he knows they need to run more and “he’s not an idiot.” This is a solid week to try to prove it. The Chargers rush defense is 24th in the NFL by DVOA. The problem is there are a lot of problems with this run game. Let’s run (ayyy) through them, shall we? No defense fears Trubisky, so they stack the box. The Bears offensive line has been an issue all year. The running backs haven’t been effective in their own right. Tarik Cohen was the nominal starter last week. He combined with David Montgomery for five rushes for 16 yards. What used to save Cohen was his receiving work. He still had 12 targets this week, only to turn that into 9 catches for 19 yards. Montgomery is great breaking tackles, but my concerns about his speed and acceleration have proved valid. He is not getting to the line fast enough and isn’t able to capitalize on the broken tackles. It’s a tough backfield to trust in for fantasy and I would hold off on starting them until we see something from this offense unless you are truly desperate.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
- Allen Robinson (Start/WR2)
- Taylor Gabriel (Sit)
- Anthony Miller (Sit)
- Trey Burton (Sit)
Allen Robinson deserves better. From the original Blake Bortles to the new Bortles, can we get this man a QB? Despite Trubisky’s best efforts, Robinson is WR14. He is averaging 11.1 TAY, which is impressive in this offense. He had 16 targets last week and it should stay that way. He is the best pass-catcher on the team and has been the only difference-maker for the offense outside of Taylor Gabriel roasting the Redskins. Speaking of, Gabriel returned from injury last week and was on the field for 54% of the snaps. He should take back the second receiver spot once fully healthy. Anthony Miller has worked his way back onto the field, playing over 70% of the snaps for the second straight week. He had 112 air yards last week. I listed him as the sleeper for this game because he was someone many were expecting to break out and he is finally showing some signs for it. Just may not happen with you know who as his QB. Trey Burton is just a guy. He is averaging a league-low 2.3 TAY. There are better options even in this desert of TEs.
–Frank Costanzo (@FrankQBList; Reddit: Zzzonked92)
Real hot take with the “sit Mixon” line. Also, you said Goff has a “home date” against the Bengals, but it’s in LONDON, my man.