The first week of the 2024 NFL season has come and gone, and we’re finally in the mix of meaningful football.
There was a slate of entertaining games over the weekend, and it was fun to see exactly who excelled in their matchups and who simply fell flat on their faces to start the 2024 campaign. While most teams this week were who we thought they were, there was a bit of chaos in many fantasy lineups. Some lesser names shined, while a few studs gave out duds; and given that the season is still young, there are a few things that can change as players acclimate to the rigors of a full 17-game slate.
One helpful aspect for determining individual player success is looking at Snap Shares per game. Seeing not only WHO received the lion’s share of opportunities, but WHAT they did with them can forecast the players with the highest chances of balling out each week in a season.
For this series of pieces, I scoured PFF snap counts as well as targeted statistics courtesy of ESPN, and put together a broad window for specific matchups to gain a better picture of what these offenses decided to do with their personnel that week. To begin the season, we’ll cover a few interesting teams and situations as offenses find their identities. As the season goes on, we will narrow our focus on interesting trends, both up and down, to find out who to target in your fantasy lineups and what to make of good or bad situations with these star players.
With that said, let’s take a look at snap shares and player trends for a few meaningful situations across the NFL for Week 1.
Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills
Final: BUF 34 – ARI 28
I’m willing to bet the scheme is what’s holding MHJ back, but Buffalo sure made it difficult. Arizona was last in fantasy points to wideouts on the outside in 2023, while Buffalo was stout, with their defense yielding the fourth fewest points to outside receivers. The trend seemingly continued. I hope HC Jonathan Gannon takes a look at this and makes adjustments for the talented rookie against the Rams next week.
Arizona seemed content to run the ball and hit the shorter routes available, as seen by Greg Dortch and James Conner‘s targeted shares. Conner is the undisputed lead back, and while Trey Benson saw limited snaps, he was given the ball on half of them which is positive.
Trey McBride did well with his targeted percentage and saw the field for almost the entirety of the game, but there was still much to be desired from a fantasy perspective. Chalk it up to a good defensive game plan by Buffalo that adjusted in the second half and made Kyler Murray extremely uncomfortable on the day.
Dalton Kincaid, what happened? The young TE saw the highest offensive snaps of any skill player but saw the ball go his way in less than 4% of his snaps. He out-snapped Dawson Knox by a solid margin, so I’m sure he’ll bounce back – but it’s still a concerning look nonetheless.
The WR spread is interesting, with the rookie Keon Coleman earning the most snaps out of any wideout and seeing a larger targeted percentage, with Mack Hollins & Khalil Shakir further behind.
James Cook got the lion’s share of touches and did well on them. His only real competition seems to be QB Josh Allen (who rushed for 2 TDs himself), but Ray Davis did positively in this outing, seeing the ball on 4 of his 6 snaps and making the most of them.
Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs
Final: KC 27 – BAL 20
It is quite likely that Isaiah Likely has emerged as TE1 in Baltimore. Whether it was the KC defensive scheme to take Andrews away, or a lingering effect from his late-season injury last year, Likely did a lot more with his snaps in their season opener. In terms of snaps, it was almost even, but Jackson looked Likely’s way far more than he did the longtime stud TE. Week 1 is filled with overreactions, but this is a situation worth keeping in mind watching as the Ravens take on the Raiders next week.
Henry out-touched everyone not named Lamar Jackson, but it was frustrating to see the high number of dump-offs to Justice Hill on the night. The Chiefs keyed in on the rush with Henry, rendering him particularly ineffective on the ground. I expect him to bounce back, but with Jackson and Hill (later potentially Keaton Mitchell on his return as well) vulturing opportunities, it may be time to pump the brakes on the King.
Xavier Worthy was lights-out efficient. The WR2 based on his percentage on the field, it was clear that KC schemed specifically with his speed in mind, and it paid off to the tune of 2 TDs in his debut. The former Texas Longhorn really did a number on the Ravens’ defense, scorching him in both the pass & run game. I’m extremely excited to see just how much more the young wideout can do – his talent should afford him a much larger share of opportunities down the stretch, but don’t expect this kind of efficiency the entire season.
Kelce saw the highest snap count of any offensive player on the Chiefs but didn’t produce. Defensive schemes obviously aim to negate what the All-Pro can do against them, and surely the Ravens are all too familiar with his potential to just let him run freely down the field; for that reason, I’m willing to chalk this up to a bad night, with better chances ahead.
Isiah Pacheco appears to be THE guy in the backfield for Kansas City. Carson Steele and Samaje Perine sprinkled in at times but didn’t eat much into his touches. The fact that he was involved in goal line opportunities and the passing game bodes well, especially since that was the fear with Steele’s preseason performance and Perine’s signing.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Miami Dolphins
Final: MIA 20 – JAX 17
This was an extremely mixed bag for the Jaguars on the day. Snaps and target shares were all over the place, so it looks to be harder to make any sort of conclusions based on Week 1 alone. That being said, there are a few numbers that caught my eye.
Gabe Davis of all players out-snapped everyone, but was only looked at a paltry 7% of the time by Trevor Lawrence. The Jags looked lethargic on offense for most of the afternoon, so his on-field percentage may be a better indication of future performances than his production was.
Brian Thomas Jr. is an interesting rookie to watch. A close second for the lead in snaps and tied for the most targets, Thomas Jr. was arguably the most productive pass catcher in this outing. It’s encouraging that the coaching staff and Lawrence wanted to get the ball out to him early in the year.
Etienne and Tank Bigsby splitting the rushing load 50-50 is not a fun prospect for ETN owners, especially since Bigsby was far more effective with them. It remains to be seen if this continues or if either player overtakes the other, but considering Etienne’s draft stock, many will likely be displeased with these numbers in Jacksonville.
Hill was off to his usual type of performance, even if he and QB Tua Tagovailoa were off on almost half of his targets. The fact that Hill can turn a single pass into a monster 80-yard TD is indicative that he was one of the top picks in every draft for a reason.
Achane didn’t have the most efficient of days on the ground (averaging 2.4 yards per carry) but scored a TD and ate well in the passing game, catching all 7 of his targets for 76 yards. He went high in PPR leagues for this very purpose, but even with his sluggish rushing performance, he almost doubled the total touches that Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. received in the game. Achane looks to be the back to own in Miami here and now.
Waddle was on point with the passes that went his way, surgically carving the Jags defense on the afternoon. Hill likely continues to outperform him in fantasy most weeks, but Waddle is a star on his own and did well with what he was given in this game.
Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions
Final: DET 26 – LAR 20
If you didn’t already know, Cooper Kupp is a BEAST. A year removed from the injuries that plagued his ’23 campaign, Kupp not only led LA on the night in yards but did so on a monster share of targets (21) while playing EVERY SINGLE RAMS SNAP. His problems look pretty far behind him, and with last year’s rookie sensation Puka Nacua potentially out with an injury of his own, expect Kupp to dominate the target share and opposing defenses every week going forward.
For all the talk of Blake Corum‘s rise in HC Sean McVay‘s offense, it sure wasn’t on display this week. He failed to see any touches at RB while last year’s fantasy hero Kyren Williams dominated the Rams backfield opportunities. Williams’ efficiency was down bad in this one, but he salvaged the night with a TD and was a close third in total offensive snaps logged against Detroit.
It’ll remain to be seen how Nacua’s absence is handled in terms of what player steps up, but it’ll likely be a toss-up between Tyler Johnson and Demarcus Robinson. Both received 7 targets apiece, with Johnson registering most of his damage on a 63-yard gain, while Robinson steadily churned out his yards at a 10.5 YPC pace. It’s worth noting Robinson also outsnapped Johnson 72-51. It really could be anyone’s game while Nacua recovers on IR.
If you had Amon-Ra St. Brown or Sam LaPorta in your lineups on Sunday night, you probably had a bad time. It was hard to gauge exactly what was keeping either playing from breaking out, as both had among the highest shares of snaps in the Lions offense; both hovered at around 10% in total looks and while LaPorta averaged a healthy 11.3 YPC average, St. Brown was abysmal, registering 13 total yards. The Rams’ defense kept the lid on both, and neither did much to break out of it. Both players are too talented for this trend to continue into next week, so I do expect a bounce back; it’s just a troubling start to the season to see.
As bad as St. Brown and LaPorta may have been, the offense didn’t miss a beat with the stellar emergence of Jameson Williams as a deep threat for the Lions. He commanded the largest target share in the game for Detroit while leading in total yards (receiving more than every other Lions pass catcher combined). I don’t know if it’ll continue given the down night the other Lions’ star weapons had, but if he isn’t already picked up in your leagues, you may want to do so ASAP.
Based on Week 1, I don’t think you’d be wrong to go with either Lions RB. Both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery found success on the field, with Monty punching in the clinching score on a dominant opening OT drive. Gibbs got more looks in the passing game, but Monty was the more efficient rusher (5.4 to 3.6). It might be frustrating trying to figure out who is the hot hand to ride week in and week out – but both look to be viable options in HC Dan Campbell and OC Ben Johnson’s physical scheme.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@bearydoesgfx on X)