Week 2 has officially come and gone, and what a wildly inconsistent week it was.
The phrase “Any Given Sunday” reigns true for the NFL, but it’s never felt more apparent than watching what transpired here in mid-September. Contending hopefuls like the 49ers, Cowboys, Ravens, & Rams all lost (some in brutally convincing fashion), while teams such as the Raiders, Chargers, & Vikings sit pretty at 2-0.
A typical start to the season, I suppose?
While it might be hard picking game winners outright sometimes, predicting the booms and busts of each matchup can be even more frustrating. Knowing who’s playing and how often they’re getting those opportunities in their offense tends to help, which is why looking at trends in Snap Shares comes in clutch.
For this series of pieces, I scoured PFF snap counts and targeted statistics courtesy of ESPN and put together a broad window for specific matchups to better understand what these teams decided to do with their personnel each week. As the season goes on, I want to narrow what we see to focus on interesting trends, both up and down, to find out who to target in your fantasy lineups and what to make of good or bad situations with these star players.
With that said, let’s take a look at snap shares and player trends for a few meaningful situations across the NFL for Week 2.
New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys
Final: NO 44 – DAL 19
This game felt like it was over before the half, and it didn’t take a ton of offensive snaps to do it. The Saints offense ran a total of 53 plays in the game, and managed to put up 44 points on a (supposedly) strong Dallas defense. That’s almost a point PER SNAP. Offensive Coordinator Klint Kubiak is running some voodoo magic down in New Orleans, and it has all of the Saints top skill pieces humming.
Alvin Kamara was the most efficient player on the afternoon in this one. He averaged a strong 4.86 yards per play, going for four total TDs in a dominant offensive showing. Jamaal Williams spelled in with success, but if it wasn’t already clear, this Saints team runs on Kamara’s talent and that isn’t likely to change with these types of numbers.
I found it interesting that Foster Moreau of all players lead the team in TE snaps. It’s likely for his blocking ability, mind you – but he would have had a late TD if it weren’t for a penalty. He is indeed a weapon, and the fact that he has a large usage is a great sign, especially given how many points this team is capable of week in and week out. Taysom Hill is still seeing the field at a sizable clip, but it would appear that Kubiak and HC Dennis Allen have steered away from focusing on a high volume of gadget plays than in years past.
With Dallas playing from behind for essentially the entire game, there was a lot of passing volume in this one. Elite receiver CeeDee Lamb got his targets and had a decent day, but the fact the Jalen Tolbert led in targets is an interesting result to look at. Brandin Cooks was an afterthought in Week 2, and while much of the volume came when the game was well out of reach, Tolbert still did well with what he got, and it’ll be worth watching to see if it continues in the weeks ahead.
Star TE Jake Ferguson was out for the home opener against New Orleans, so it was second-year man Luke Schoonmaker who got the first call to step up. He did so in a reliable way from the start, hauling in everything thrown his way for 43 yards. It wasn’t world-beating by any means, but should Ferguson require more time to rest up, Schoonmaker wouldn’t be a bad pickup on the waiver wire for fantasy rosters.
This running back committee really does leave a sour taste in the mouth (if you invested in either player, of course). Dowdle got the ball to start, and finished with the more productive day both on the ground and through the air. He also outsnapped Elliott (just barely). Neither RB is finding a lot of success, though against the Saints the run game was abandoned fairly early. You’re better off looking elsewhere for an effective back to start in your fantasy lineups.
Indianapolis Colts @ Green Bay Packers
Final: GB 16 – IND 10
Alec Pierce has emerged as a focal point in this offense, and an intriguing one at that. Tying for the team lead in targets, leading the team in receiving yards, and putting up the Colts only score on an offensively lethargic day, Pierce has had a very nice showing through the first two games of the season. He might be Anthony Richardson‘s favorite target, and a worthwhile pickup on waivers if he’s available.
It should be a crime to ONLY give the ball to Jonathan Taylor 12 times out of the backfield in a game; it’s even worse when you consider that Taylor averaged 8.6 yards a touch, led all Colts players in total yardage, and didn’t see the field AT ALL in the 4th quarter. Head coach Shane Steichen was quoted as saying Indy was trailing, so Trey Sermon got the call as the preferred pass catching back. What’s funny is Sermon had two carries and a single target all day, while Taylor to that point had racked up 32 yards through the air ALONE. I could sympathize if this was a blow out, but the Colts weren’t trailing by multiple scores. It’s frustrating to see, but worse to hear Steichen poorly explain it. Thankfully Taylor is talented enough to offset bad coaching and usage.
I’m not quite sure what to make of Michael Pittman‘s situation. He’s getting the targets, but Richardson has been a mixed bag through the air and the points just aren’t manifesting. As good as Pittman is, I’m sure he’ll bounce back – the fun part is going to be picking when and where. With Richardson’s ineptitude (or growing pains, whichever view you choose to have on a glass half empty) Pierce’s emergence, and Josh Downs ready to come back to the fold, it’ll be interesting to see who comes out of top for the Indianapolis pass catchers.
The offense with QB Jordan Love out is certainly different. Second-string trade acquisition Malik Willis was serviceable on the day, finding multiple receivers open and spreading the ball around. Wicks was the greatest beneficiary of this, leading all Packers receivers in targets along with the lone Green Bay score, while Doubs held the team lead in receiving yardage. It will be hard to say if these trends continue from week to week given Willis’ lack of mesh time with this offense, so take these statistics with a grain of salt when setting any of these guys in your lineup.
With all of that said, it is still troubling that Christian Watson was nowhere to be found on the afternoon. Not a single ball went his way, a week removed from a positive outing in Brazil after an injury plagued ’23 campaign. This was a brutal performance from the young receiver who was expected to help pick up the slack as a reliable option until Love returns. Feel free to stash him on your bench until the QB1 returns.
Josh Jacobs is now THE guy for offense in Green Bay. He carried the rock a grand total of 32 times for 151 yards, averaging a steady 4.7 yards per tote. It was evident the offensive game plan under Matt LaFleur was to run the ball early and often, and while a number of others Packers backs played in this one, Jacobs is the healthiest and most efficient, and should continue to see high usage for the immediate future. The one catch here is Jacobs lack of targets in the receiving game – something that should hopefully increase against better defensive opponents down the road.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Carolina Panthers
Final: LAC 26 – CAR 3
What sort of dystopian world did we slip into where Quentin Johnston is balling out? The often disparaged second-year receiver out of TCU had himself a heck of a day, catching five of six targets sent his way for 51 yards and TWO scores. He lead all Chargers players in receiving yards and targets and looked like a fish in water in Jim Harbaugh‘s new look LA scheme. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves just yet, but with the lack of other bonafide receiving options amidst the Chargers WR corps, it’s a positive trend in the right direction for the young former Horned Frog.
Speaking of a lacking WR corps, the likes of Ladd McConkey and Joshua Palmer aren’t doing much in this offense. The focal point was always going to be the running game with a complementary pass game, but so far it’s been a mediocre attack at best through the air, and you can’t much blame Justin Herbert for it. The preseason hype hasn’t materialized, and while it might be early to give up on either altogether, you should definitely scour for better options for your starting fantasy lineups.
J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are quite literally splitting this backfield in terms of snaps and touches, but only one has dominated his given opportunities so far. Dobbins has been a man possessed in the run game, and against Carolina he averaged a strong 7.7 yards per carry. It’s clear to the viewing eye who the hot hand is, but Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman might not see it that way. Edwards should still warrant a spot on your bench with this in mind (and given his running mate’s health issues), but Dobbins is the back to have here and now.
If you went out into Week 2 and started any of the Carolina Panthers in your lineups, I’m very, very sorry – but you deserved your (highly probable) loss.
This offense is bad. And while the Panthers staff have since announced that they will be benching struggling QB Bryce Young in favor of veteran journeyman Andy Dalton, I will still be hesitant to put any one of these players on my roster.
That being said, there are a few positives to pluck out of the sea of negativity that has been Charlotte, North Carolina of late. That is Diontae Johnson, Adam Thielen, and Chuba Hubbard. Johnson lead the team in targets (though he did next to nothing with them) while Hubbard looked efficient behind a revamped offensive line. Both Johnson and Thielen tied for the lead in offensive snaps, and I fully expect Dalton to target his guys (he and the latter had a decent connection last year) but he may do wonders for both Johnson and Hubbard – throwing far more accurate passes to the former Steeler, while giving the defense a passing game to worry about so the heat is taken off Hubbard and the run.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos
Final: PIT 13 – DEN 6
The Pittsburgh Steelers may be 2-0, but make no mistake – this is a bad offense. Having your starting QB muster only 117 yards through the air and 13 total points is nothing to hang your hat on, and it seems to be to the detriment of everyone excluding the RBs and Pat Freiermuth. The young TE tied for the most targets and led the Steelers with a paltry 39 yards receiving. They’re fine numbers (in a PPR league) among what is usually a barren wasteland for TE production – but 7.9 points as top receiving dog in your offense is extremely low.
The Steelers running game sure is intriguing to watch at least. Najee Harris lead in this one overall with 69 yards on 17 carries, but it was Jaylen Warren who surpassed him fantasy-wise with his four receptions off of the arm of Fields. He didn’t have that shabby of a game on the ground either, with 42 yards and a healthy 4.7-yard average against Denver. The thinking last week for Warren was that he was still being brought up slowly due to injury; he’s healthier now, and as the weeks go by he may claim the lion’s share of touches in this backfield.
That being said, its still certainly a committee approach – and with Arthur Smith‘s amusing affinity for Cordarelle Patterson, it could hinder either back’s production any given week.
Josh Reynolds has quickly taken the lead as QB Bo Nix’s favorite receiver option in Denver. A team-leading 93-yards on 4 receptions, Reynolds flashed a ton of deep-threat ability and tied for second among all Broncos with 5 targets. He isn’t in the starting lineup just yet, but give him some time – I’m sure with Nix growing as a passer, this connection will thrive going forward in the year.
Greg Dulcich actually led Denver on the day in targets, but couldn’t corral in the majority of them. Pittsburgh’s defense is stout with its front seven, so it sort of explains the lack of productivity for Nix here. That being said, its a positive outing in that sense; more opportunities, especially as the rookie’s safety blanket, could lead to better results as the season goes by.
While it’s still a toss up, it would appear that Javonte Williams is the RB to target in the Broncos backfield. Not only did he out-touch Jaleel McLaughlin 11-3 but he received more targets as well, going 5 for 5 and 48 yards. His YPC of 1.5 is terrible, however, and McLaughlin’s isn’t much better at 2.0, so I wouldn’t necessarily want to rely on either unless I was desperate. Still, against a tough Steelers defense, there were certainly worse stat lines to be had.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@bearydoesgfx on X)