After three weeks of regular season action, we can begin to see each team for who they are.
For example, hyped preseason picks such as San Francisco and Dallas are struggling mightily, with no real end in sight for their woes. The Jaguars, Browns, and Dolphins are at a crossroads, watching their seasons slip away – while teams like Minnesota, led by a resurgent Sam Darnold, reside amidst a thinning host of undefeated squads to include Seattle, Kansas City, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh(!). With an early surge of hidden gems and fading stars, fantasy rosters are intently hinged on the trends of highs and lows across each of the 32 teams.
It’s why crunching the real numbers from each matchup is so beneficial. The season is still young – a lot can change from one month to the next, a testament to the NFL’s unpredictability. Bad teams can put it together down the stretch; early-season risers can fall fast when figured out. It’s still anyone’s game.
While it might be hard picking game winners outright sometimes, predicting the booms and busts of each matchup can be even more frustrating. Knowing who’s playing and how often they’re getting those opportunities in their offense helps immensely, especially when looking at the big picture for an 18-week season.
For this series of pieces, I scoured PFF snap counts and targeted statistics courtesy of ESPN and put together a broad window for specific matchups to better understand what these teams decided to do with their personnel each week. As the season goes on, I want to narrow what we see to focus on interesting trends, both up and down, to find out who to target in your fantasy lineups and what to make of good or bad situations with these star players.
By now, you know the deal – let’s dive right into Week 3’s numbers.
New England Patriots @ New York Jets
Final: NYJ 24 – NE 3 (TNF)
If you don’t like 3 points in a game, you don’t like New England football.
The Patriots offense on Thursday Night Football was offensive, certainly – offensive to the eyes of viewers across the country. All jokes aside, this was just an awful night in East Rutherford. It’s very telling that when rookie QB Drake Maye entered the game on the final drive, his 46 mustered yards totaled more than the entire second half of New England drives combined. A genuinely abysmal showing for Jacoby Brissett and company, one that perhaps renders their Week 1 stunner in Cincinnati more of a fluke than the norm.
Its hard to find a bright spot on the night, but if I had to choose, Demario Douglas gets my vote. The wideout played the most offensive snaps and led the team in targets and yards by a country mile. It wasn’t the most eye catching of outings, but he was reliable for both Maye and Brissett when they needed him. I’d be steering clear of the entire offense out of Foxborough, but if I was desperate, there’s (probably) worse waiver additions.
Call it a symptom of getting whooped, but Rhamondre Stevenson having six total carries is beyond alarming. The Jets defense is physical, but not unbeatable – so for Stevenson to average only 3.8 YPC while being outplayed (and nearly outtouched) by Antonio Gibson spells a disaster waiting to happen for those who drafted him early. Unless HC Jarrod Mayo can put this offense back on track, I’m looking for better options for my lineup.
This game felt like a stroll through the park for New York. The run game was phenomenal, Aaron Rodgers spread the ball around to multiple receivers, and the defense flat-out dominated. For the multitude of positives to start with, I’ll run with Breece Hall and Braelon Allen. What a beautiful problem to have for the Jets and coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. Hall was his usual star self, racking up 83 yards and a TD on 20 touches, but it was Allen who rose to the occasion with his 5.0 YPC. It was an efficient outing for both and a true showing for Allen who likely has earned some more opportunities out of this one.
TE Tyler Conklin of all players lead the Jets in total yards (93) on five of six targets. His 18.6-yards per catch stole the show though, as Rodgers’ safety net was able to get deeper downfield and #8 wasn’t scared to sling it to him. Considering Conklin almost tripled his season’s output in this single game, it may be more of an outlier than anything – but if you’re hurting at TE, Conklin is probably worth the flier.
I’m still unsure what to make of the Jets WR Corps, but it’s obvious Garrett Wilson is the tip of the spear. His nine targets lead New York on the evening, After that, Allen Lazard continued his streak of solid production with a TD reception, and free agent addition Mike Williams is starting to put things together after being brought up slowly from his injury. In fact, Williams led all wideouts in yardage and looks to be gaining Rodgers’ trust with each outing. That’s a solid trend, especially on what appears to be a talented and explosive offense in 2024.
Houston Texans @ Minnesota Vikings
Final: MIN 34 – HOU 7
Who knew a battle of unbeatens would be so one-sided?
The Texans failed to really get much going on Sunday afternoon, and while the Minnesota defense should get a ton of credit, Houston made it hard on themselves from the get-go with their lack of a running game. Cam Akers managed a measly 2.3 YPC and 21 yards before the run game was shelved completely. Joe Mixon was sorely missed, and for fantasy owners and Texans fans, hopefully his return us sooner rather than later.
It’s a bit funny how low many were on Stefon Diggs and the Texans WR corps entering the season. The assumption was it was too many mouths to feed, and that’s certainly been true three weeks in – but it isn’t Diggs that suffering as a result of it. He’s thriving, and against Minnesota he was top dog with 12 targets and 94 receiving yards. Tank Dell, on the other hand, seems to be the odd man out. Nico Collins was hot on Diggs’ trail with 10 targets, but couldn’t connect on even half of them in a down day for C.J. Stroud and co. That’s with a pass-happy game script, so a bit of a concern surely. I will say though, his yards per reception was extremely healthy (21.5) and it’s wild that he almost caught up to Diggs’ yardage total (86). That has to give Collins owners a silver lining.
I’d have assumed you insane if you had tried to tell me just how good Darnold would be in 2024. The man has put it all together, and against Houston at home he tossed 4 TDs to rip the Texans from the ranks of the undefeated. It was a dominant display, and not unusual for Darnold this season. He’s been a fantasy revelation, leading the league in TDs thrown and among the top 15 in total yardage, all against quality opponents. I don’t have to tell you to scramble for Darnold if he’s still available in your leagues – his stats speak for themselves.
A good as the Vikings’ QB has been, you have to credit Aaron Jones for his renaissance in Minneapolis. The former UTEP standout excelled on Sunday, trouncing the Texans to the tune of 148 total yards and a score. I admit, I was expecting a down year for Jones, but he’s surpassed my expectations so far. With a healthy 5.4 YPC on the ground and extensive usage through the passing game, Jones is looking like a steal across the board so far through the season.
Justin Jefferson is Justin Jefferson – we know this. But the surprising rise of Jalen Nailor has been a welcomed surprise in the Vikings WR room. His three-game streak of TDs continued against Houston, and while his yardage and targets have been on the lower side, he’s done very well with his opportunities. Jordan Addison has been out with injury and this offense just hasn’t missed a beat due to Nailor’s exploits. What a start to the season for the third-year receiver, and hopefully a continued trend to go along with a positive season in Minnesota so far.
New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns
Final: NYG 21 – CLE 15
New York was desperate for a bounceback, and while it wasn’t pretty, they sure pulled it off.
In particular, you have to credit the stellar play of rookie phenom Malik Nabers. The LSU standout continued his streak of productivity, torching the Browns secondary for two scores while pacing the Giants skill players in snaps with 60. He’s certainly become the focal point of the offense, and when he’s moving, this offense is churning. It was a rough start but it looks like the rookie is gaining his footing and that may be terrifying for the league. If only he had a more consistent QB throwing to him.
Speaking of which, credit where credit is due – QB Daniel Jones played well enough to will the Giants to their first season win. It wasn’t exactly mind blowing, but he completed 24/34 passes and did not turn the ball over. For a game, Jones helped will New York to some semblance of offensive prowess, which bodes well for the likes of Nabers and Devin Singletary, who many drafted high.
On note with Singletary, he saw steady work and did well with what he was given (minus his fumble). He managed to out-touch Tyrone Tracy 3:1 and more than doubled his snap count. For now it looks like he will continue to be RB1, and with the offense on the up and up, he’s a worthwhile flex option on lineups if you’re feeling risky.
It’s good to finally see Amari Cooper live up to his billing.
The talented route runner carved the Giants secondary up early, as evident by his 24-yard TD on the first official play of the game. After two weeks of disappointment, Cooper rewarded fantasy owners with two total scores while leading all receivers in yardage. Too bad he likely rode the bench for most fantasy rosters this weekend.
Jerome Ford just has not been it at RB in Nick Chubb’s absence. Against New York he managed a lowly 3.7 YPC, and while he made a small dent in the passing game, it was a small consolation prize for fantasy owners who expected Ford to ball out this season. There isn’t much competition until Chubb can come off the PUP healthy, but there has to be better options in most leagues week to week.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@bearydoesgfx on X)
You have the HOU vs MIN score switched with HOU winning instead of MIN.