We are officially through a full month of NFL football.
The weeks are rolling by fast, and with them are the odds and ins of each NFL team hoping to either contend this upcoming winter or already looking forward to better prospects next year. Several interesting matchups took place this past weekend, namely the first London game for the league that saw the undefeated Minnesota Vikings reign supreme over the New York Jets, who just yesterday fired head coach Robert Saleh after a 2-3 start. The season can be brutal, but teams and their stars are expected to perform on the field.
This applies to fantasy as well – watching players and their usage live up to expectations can be the difference between wins and losses. The focal point of this series is to highlight specific snap shares across the league that are trending in the right (or wrong) directions, helping you make decisions with your waivers and lineups. Seeing not only WHO received the lion’s share of opportunities but WHAT they did with them can forecast the players with the highest chances of balling out each week and helping you rack up your wins.
To this point, we’ve taken a broad look at trends at the team level to determine what offenses have decided to do for each matchup. As we advance, the idea is to focus more on specific position groups – not only to see what has changed from week to week but to potentially answer why the stats are different and determine if this will continue for key players.
To do this, I’ve scoured PFF snap counts, as well as targeted statistics courtesy of ESPN, to get an overall usage percentage (carries and targets divided by snap count) to find out who to target in your fantasy lineups and what to make of weekly good or bad situations across the league.
With that said, let’s dive right into some of the more interesting situations across the NFL for Week 5.
Atlanta Falcons Running Backs
What’s Goin’ On with Bijan?
The Thursday Night featured game was an offensive fireworks display, with Tampa Bay rushing out to a large lead early before Atlanta came roaring back to snatch the win out in overtime. Almost every skill player on both squads ate – almost.
The question here is, what in the world is going on with Bijan Robinson?
Looking at the last three games for Atlanta, Robinson’s targeted share has decreased fairly steadily (36.0% in Week 3 compared to 25.9% in Week 5), while his stats have remained stagnant albeit consistent. The script against Tampa had the Falcons trail frequently in a close game, so you have to factor that in a bit when looking at his stats. In fact, Atlanta ranks second to last in total rush attempts so far this season, and with 18 total rushing attempts on Thursday, you can only go so far in terms of production. The Falcons also had to go up against two high-flying offenses in Kansas City and New Orleans over the last two weeks, so it’s hard to blame them for airing it out to keep pace.
Still, a back of Robinson’s caliber should be able to do more than a meager 61 yards on the ground and 77 overall. He is still a receiving threat, and in a game where QB Kirk Cousins mustered a league-high 509 yards passing, the fact that the former first-round pick wasn’t much involved is concerning.
Tyler Allgeier stands as the other RB claiming touches out of the backfield, but fell victim to Atlanta’s reluctance to run as well. His snap count is trending in a great direction (13, 21, and 31 in Weeks 3 through 5), but his targeted percentage has also decreased steadily. It would take an injury or a complete philosophy change from the Falcons’ coaching staff for Allgeier to bust out.
New York Jets Running Backs
Will the Squeaky Wheel Get the Breece?
As bad as Robinson’s situation has been in Atlanta, Breece Hall‘s may arguably be worse.
A top pick for fantasy rosters this past offseason, Hall’s stats started great but quickly faded abysmally over the past few games. After earning a 40.4% usage percentage in Week 3, Breece was only given a carry or target on 24.5% of his snaps in Week 5. The Jets in general have struggled to start the year off when not playing subpar teams, hence the first firing of the season with Robert Saleh, but the way they’ve struggled has been the biggest concern.
New York invested heavily in their offensive line, and the return of veteran QB Aaron Rodgers was supposed to elevate the Jets’ playmakers to new heights in 2024. That hasn’t really happened so far, and the likes of Breece Hall and the running game have suffered the most of all of the New York skill positions. Nathaniel Hackett has been extremely predictable and prone to abandoning the run, and Hall (nor rookie star RB Braelon Allen) hasn’t been involved in the passing game to help offset the loss of production. It’s baffling, especially considering how talented both are, and the fact that the Jets lack real talent at the receiver position outside WR Garrett Wilson makes this even more confusing.
Against New England, Hall (and Allen) did well but then quickly fell back down to Earth in a loss against Denver. The same lowly showing followed them across the pond against a surprisingly stout Vikings squad that New York took to the wire. Hall’s snap count has been steady over the past three games, but his usage has dipped in each matchup and his stats have suffered as a result. 37 total yards is simply too poor for a player of his caliber.
With Saleh gone, there’s bound to be changes – but I fear until Hackett alters his scheme and tendencies, this may be the trend for Hall going forward.
Baltimore Ravens Tight Ends
Is Your Answer at TE Here? Not Likely.
This is a position group I do not want to be a part of.
Before the season started, it was expected that Mark Andrews would return from injury and reclaim his place among the better TEs of the league, with Isaiah Likely and his talent spilling in. With the general lack of pass-catching options in Baltimore, you would expect both to be able to eat in this offense. Through five games, however, this couldn’t be further from reality.
Andrews has been essentially blanked in this offense, and while Likely has flashed in some matchups, he has also taken a massive back seat to the running duo of QB Lamar Jackson and RB Derrick Henry. This has resulted in a mixed bag to start the season, though Baltimore of late has been riding a winning streak after finding their rhythm. It wasn’t until this past weekend against the Bengals, however, that they found production in the passing game; predicting who would benefit was just chaotic.
Charlie Kolar of all players led in total yardage (with a score), while Likely racked up two total TDs on just three catches. Mark Andrews was looked at the most, and while he had a decent game, there was certainly a sour taste in the mouths of fantasy owners who got to watch three TDs go in other directions. Sure, this was a bounce back for Andrews and may be a stepping stone for his production for the rest of the season, but given how unpredictable and inconsistent the Ravens’ passing attack has been to date, the fact that the entire TE room ate in some way, shape, or form is exhausting, to say the least.
You can speculate from week to week who ends up on top in Baltimore, but that’s one headache to avoid in my opinion.
Jacksonville Jaguars Running Backs
Tank You Very Much!
Enter the stage, Tank Bigsby.
The second-year man out of Auburn has been steadily improving his game over the course of the season. The game script against Buffalo in a Week 3 Monday Night blowout prevented him from really doing much, but when his number was called against Houston, and again at home against Indy this past weekend, he delivered the stats. 129 total yards and 2 TDs is excellent production, and the fact that he did all of this on just 14 total touches is impressive. The Jaguars have been desperate for anything to help them out of the 1-4 slump they’ve begun the season with, and while it hasn’t been voluminous, the running game behind Tank may be key for improving the offense going forward.
Speaking of offensive woes, Travis Etienne Jr. has been the poster child for this underwhelming offense. His stats have been middling through five games, and while his usage percentage has been up, his snap count has steadily decreased week to week, going from 49 snaps in Week 3 down to 22 snaps in Week 5. It’s been almost a perfect mirror opposite the situation with Bigsby, and Etienne owners may want to consider the possibility that he is being upstaged in this offense. Head coach Doug Pederson has continued to voice his vote of confidence in Etienne, but the numbers haven’t lied – even in a close game this past weekend (where a total of 23 running plays were called), Bigsby received the lion’s share. Etienne’s recent shoulder injury has also compounded the issue, and it remains to be seen what the trend will follow this upcoming weekend against Chicago in London.
If you have Etienne on your roster, you may want to keep a close eye on the numbers between Jacksonville’s two RBs going forward.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@bearydoesgfx on X)