Well, that was certainly a fun week of football for some.
Mid-October is here, and between bye weeks and blowouts, we’re noticing certain trends appear here to stay when it comes to usage and target share. Players like Rashid Shaheed, Bucky Irving, and Alexander Mattison have reached relevance from seemingly nowhere, while players like Travis Etienne, Ezekiel Elliott, and Calvin Ridley have all but faded into obscurity. The NFL is a tough business, and to paraphrase what Tony Romo once said, “Football is a meritocracy. You aren’t handed anything. You have to prove it.”
Several players certainly proved that they deserve consideration across fantasy rosters this past weekend.
The focal point of this series, again, is to highlight specific snap shares across the league that are trending in the right (or wrong) directions, helping you make decisions with your waivers and lineups. Seeing not only WHO received the lion’s share of opportunities but WHAT they did with them can forecast the players with the highest chances of balling out each week and helping you rack up your wins.
To do this, I’ve scoured PFF snap counts, as well as targeted statistics courtesy of ESPN, to get an overall usage percentage (carries and targets divided by snap count) to find out who to target in your fantasy lineups and what to make of weekly good or bad situations across the league.
With six weeks now come and gone in the 2024 season, you already know the drill – let’s dive right into some more unique and interesting situations across the NFL.
Cincinnati Bengals
Running Backs
at New York Giants (vs. RB – 12th)
Previous Matchups:
| Player | Week 5 Snap Count & Trend | Week 5 Usage Percentage & Trend | Week 4 Snap Count & Trend | Week 4 Usage Percentage & Trend |
| Chase Brown | 22 (+11) | 68.18% (-28.79) | 27 (+6) | 66.67% (-27.28) |
| Zach Moss | 45 (-21) | 28.89% (+0.28) | 40 (-16) | 47.50% (-18.33) |
Week 4: at Carolina Panthers (31st)
Week 5: vs. Baltimore Ravens (4th)
The Sunday Night game was a modest affair for both squads, but the Bengals did just enough to eke out the win on the road. Part of that was their reliance on the run game to complement their aerial attack, and at the forefront of that was Chase Brown.
To start the season off, many considered Zach Moss to be the frontrunner to lead this backfield after the departure of longtime star RB Joe Mixon to Houston. The former Indianapolis back had had a decent season in 2023, and the hope was that with more time to shine, he’d surpass his production for the Colts. So far in the season, that just hasn’t happened, and it’s been the Bengals holdover Brown that has stolen the show.
Looking at the last three games for Cincinnati, the numbers clearly show Moss fading down the stretch. He started for the Bengals early in the season but has steadily decreased in snap count and usage percentage since Week 3. Meanwhile, the reverse has been true for Brown, with his snaps increasing with each passing week. His usage dipped in the matchup against New York, but most likely the small sample size of runs called and the overall game script that is more to blame.
For fantasy, neither back has exactly blown the world away with their stats, but it’s not hard to see that Brown is the alpha in this backfield. Moss has enough playing time unfortunately to vulture opportunities away, but to this point just hasn’t done much with them. It’s been a committee approach to start the 2024 campaign off, but if the Bengals want to claw their way back to contention in the AFC North, they may need to rely on the hot hand at RB to pair with their lethal passing game.
Chicago Bears
Wide Receivers
vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (London, UK) (vs. WR – 31st)
Previous Matchups:
| Player | Week 5 Snap Count & Trend | Week 5 Usage Percentage & Trend | Week 4 Snap Count & Trend | Week 4 Usage Percentage & Trend |
| Keenan Allen | 60 (-7) | 10.00% (-0.57) | 41 (+12) | 7.32% (-2.11) |
| D.J. Moore | 65 (-9) | 12.31% (-3.38) | 55 (+1) | 10.91% (-1.98) |
| Rome Odunze | 59 (-6) | 10.17% (-6.40) | 47 (+6) | 6.38% (-2.61) |
Week 4: vs. Los Angeles Rams (16th)
Week 5: vs. Carolina Panthers (20th)
Keenan Allen chose the trip across the pond to finally show out for Chicago.
In his third game since returning from a lingering injury, Allen lit up a struggling Jaguars secondary to the tune of five catches for two scores. To this point, he had struggled to get anything going through the air for his new team, but the early morning game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium changed all of that. In tandem with rookie QB Caleb Williams, the Bears have been putting things together of late, and the Chicago pass catchers have been all the better for it. With the multitude of weapons he has at his disposal, the team is now 4-2 on the season and the question is no longer if, but who, will blow up in production from week to week.
Leading up to this game, D.J. Moore had been the main beneficiary for the WR1 statline in Chicago. His rapport with Williams has been evident through six weeks, and while there have been a few growing pains, it’s been mostly solid scoring for Moore through the air. Against Jacksonville however, those growing pains were a lot more evident. He likely would have had two TDs himself had it not been for an underthrown pass and a second glance at replay. Instead, he had a relatively pedestrian day, though it’s hard to predict if that will continue moving forward.
Fellow rookie Rome Odunze has been quiet to start his career but flashed potential in London, averaging 20.0 yards per reception and finishing third in total yardage amongst the Bears receivers. It wasn’t a ton of volume, but he’s still seeing the ball and the season is still young – he can still carve a healthy share of the pie in this offense, given his talent.
From a percentage standpoint, this was a down game and yet the production speaks otherwise. It’s also worth noting the performance of Chicago’s TE1. Cole Kmet has been an additional weapon that bears mentioning, given he had a stellar performance himself with 2 TDs of his own. With the cacophony of options for Williams and the offense, it’s going to be a fun, if not frustrating, challenge predicting who studs out and who duds out from week to week.
Green Bay Packers
Wide Receivers
vs. Arizona Cardinals (vs. WR – 25th)
Previous Matchups:
| Player | Week 5 Snap Count & Trend | Week 5 Usage Percentage & Trend | Week 4 Snap Count & Trend | Week 4 Usage Percentage & Trend |
| Romeo Doubs | N/A (Susp.) | N/A | 65 (-11) | 12.31% (-4.90) |
| Christian Watson | N/A (Inj.) | N/A | 9 (+35) | 11.11% (-2.02) |
| Jayden Reed | 45 (-6) | 17.78% (+0.17) | 59 (-20) | 15.25% (+2.51) |
| Bo Melton | 29 (-2) | 6.90% (+7.91) | 11 (+16) | 27.27% (-12.46) |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 45 (-35) | 15.56% (+14.44) | 58 (-48) | 22.41% (+7.59) |
Week 4: vs. Minnesota Vikings (32nd)
Week 5: at Los Angeles Rams (16th)
The Packers WR corps is maddening.
A week removed from a team-imposed suspension with rumblings of unhappiness with his usage, Romeo Doubs made the Cardinals secondary pay with two TDs on three catches total. He wasn’t the only Green Bay wideout to benefit either, with Jayden Reed, the gadget weapon who also features out of the backfield at times, and Christian Watson, the much-maligned young receiver fresh from time off with injury, each chipping in for the winning effort with TDs a piece. QB Jordan Love was on fire in front of the home crowd, lobbing it to anyone and everyone for chunk gains. It was a very positive outing for the Packers’ offense, but one that is a bit frustrating to predict.
Reed will get his touches, even if his numbers dipped a bit in Week 6. His utility as both a receiver and on designed runs makes him the premier WR in Green Bay to have for fantasy rosters. After that, it becomes a bit cloudy. Watson had been projected to be the WR1 for the Packers, but his injury woes have cropped back up again this year with him missing multiple games already as a result. Dontayvion Wicks had been a hot waiver wire pickup but has faded to near obscurity of late, and Bo Melton has been a moot point to this stage of the season.
The stats so far paint the picture that Love can sustain and feed a pass-heavy offensive attack, built off a strong run game. Assuming they aren’t blowing out their opponents each week like they did against Arizona, all mouths in the WR room could eat well in each game – but still, good luck predicting the main beneficiary week in and week out for the rest of the year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Wide Receivers
at New Orleans Saints (vs. WR – 24th)
Previous Matchups:
| Player | Week 5 Snap Count & Trend | Week 5 Usage Percentage & Trend | Week 4 Snap Count & Trend | Week 4 Usage Percentage & Trend |
| Chris Godwin | 52 (+19) | 13.46% (+4.85) | 66 (+5) | 13.64% (+4.67) |
| Mike Evans | 46 (-3) | 15.22% (-1.27) | 59 (-16) | 23.73% (-9.78) |
| Sterling Sheppard | 36 (+22) | 5.56% (+8.23) | 50 (+8) | 10.00% (+3.79) |
Week 4: vs. Philidelphia Eagles (26th)
Week 5: at Atlanta Falcons (21st)
What a problem to have in the WR room.
As the season has progressed, it’s clear that Tampa Bay has a very potent offense. The complementary football that HC Todd Bowles runs in all phases, combined with the weaponry surrounding QB Baker Mayfield, has the Buccaneers looking solid in their quest to return to the postseason in 2024. At the forefront of the options at the offense’s disposal are veteran WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. For years, it’s been Evans who has dominated discussion as the undisputed WR1 in Tampa, and to this point statistically, he has continued his production. Godwin however is right on his heels, and a monster game in New Orleans this past weekend might entrench him as THE go-to option down the season’s stretch.
Godwin was surgical against the Saints on the road, racking up 11 receptions on 13 targets and 2 TDs to cap off a 125-yard day. This is a continuation of his target numbers, as he has been soaking up massive volume over the first six weeks of the season from Mayfield. Meanwhile, Evans’ usage has tapered off statistically through the last three games, though his stats have remained on the higher end due to the game script and his overall reliability. It’s going to be hard to surpass Evans, and it’s more thank likely that an injury against the Saints secondary held him back more than anything in this high-scoring matchup.
Meanwhile, Sterling Sheppard has continued his ascendance in the wideout room, earning solid looks in both the passing game and even the running game with the Bucs down their top rusher Rachaad White. The veteran free-agent pickup has looked good in more limited snaps, and is making himself a more established part of the offense going forward.
Regardless of who’s on top – if the offense can keep moving like this, all three receivers could, and should, feast with Mayfield slinging the rock around.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@bearydoesgfx on X)