We’re almost now at the halfway point of the NFL season.
It was a wild weekend yet again for the NFL, and by now, we know exactly who is contending and who finds themselves at a loss on the year. Teams like Washington, dead in the water for years, are putting it together; the walk-off hail mary that rookie QB Jayden Daniels slung to Noah Brown was as improbable as it was insane – while in New York on both sides of the stadium in East Rutherford, the Giants & Jets sit at 2-6 and are hoping for a miracle of their own before it’s too late.
Unfortunately, injuries have compounded, with recent news that Texans WR Stefon Diggs will be out for the remainder of the year with a torn ACL. This follows a litany of others out for the year that have fantasy managers scrambling on the waiver wire. With two teams on bye this week and a number more still yet to follow down the road, pickings are slimmer by the day for your lineups.
It pays to be precise with your starts, and to that end, it’s important to dive right into the numbers to better decide who represents your team from week to week. Again, this series’s focal point is to highlight specific snap shares across the league that are trending in the right (or wrong) directions, helping you make decisions with your waivers and lineups. Seeing not only WHO received the lion’s share of opportunities but WHAT they did with them can forecast the players with the highest chances of balling out each week and helping you rack up your wins.
To do this, I’ve scoured PFF snap counts, as well as targeted statistics courtesy of ESPN, to get an overall usage percentage (carries and targets divided by snap count) to find out who to target in your fantasy lineups and what to make of weekly good or bad situations across the league.
Almost halfway gone, with another half still to go – let’s jump right into it all.
Cleveland Browns
Wide Receivers
at Baltimore Ravens (vs. WR – 31st)
Previous Matchups:
| Player | Week 6 Snap Count & Trend | Week 6 Usage Percentage & Trend | Week 7 Snap Count & Trend | Week 7 Usage Percentage & Trend |
| Jerry Jeudy | 52 (+15) | 5.77% (+6.17) | 80 (-13) | 7.50% (+4.44) |
| Cedric Tillman | 21 (+41) | 4.76% (+9.76) | 69 (-7) | 17.39% (-2.87) |
| Elijah Moore | 38 (+11) | 2.63% (+21.86) | 54 (-5) | 11.11% (+13.38) |
Week 6: at Philadelphia Eagles (22nd)
Week 7: vs. Cincinnati Bengals (15th)
The Browns have undergone some massive changes over the last three weeks.
Between the trade that sent star wideout Amari Cooper to Buffalo followed by the recent Achilles’ injury to QB Deshaun Watson, this is not the same team that it’s been through the first few games of the season. Instead, head coach Kevin Stefanski must now rely on QB Jameis Winston to lead the charge for the bottom-dwelling team, and thus far they have been much improved on offense, even stealing a win on the road this past Sunday afternoon.
With Winston at the tip of the spear, the passing attack has been rejuvenated and the trio of Jeudy, Tillman, and Moore all saw increases in their production. Granted, the Ravens haven’t exactly been a menacing secondary to face this season, and the Browns welcomed RB Nick Chubb back into the fold who took some pressure off of the air game, but it was still a great showing. Tillman especially has been on a tear of late, with his 7-99-2 stat line against Baltimore helping him to dominate waiver pickups this week. Moore as well has been a target sponge, and it’s only a matter of time before he has more of a breakout of his own.
Make no mistake, the Browns are still the Browns – there’s just a better change of scenery for its weapons, and it may just be the boon your lineups need if you’re hurting.
Detroit Lions
Running Backs
at Tennessee Titans (vs. RB – 19th)
Previous Matchups:
| Player | Week 6 Snap Count & Trend | Week 6 Usage Percentage & Trend | Week 7 Snap Count & Trend | Week 7 Usage Percentage & Trend |
| David Montgomery | 21 (+2) | 61.90% (-14.07) | 22 (+1) | 59.09% (-11.26) |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 37 (-18) | 45.95% (+17.21) | 33 (-14) | 57.58 (+5.58) |
Week 6: at Dallas Cowboys (29th)
Week 7: at Minnesota Vikings (8th)
Detroit is absolutely dominating on the ground.
Against Tennessee, the Lions needed a grand total of 48 offensive snaps to rack up a season-high 52 points. It’s insane just how dominant Detroit has been, and it’s been a full team effort for these beatdowns. Even then, the running game and the talented one-two punch that is their backfield in the Motor City deserves a ton of credit for their recent success.
Gibbs had himself a game, and over the past few weeks has carved himself more of a share of the pie while exceeding expectations statistically. His 13 touches were meager in comparison to most around the league, and yet he managed to pick up 133 yards and a TD for his troubles. Monty received even less opportunity, and while his yardage total was down, he racked up two TDs, one of which was a perfect pass to Sam LaPorta in the end zone.
Both backs seem to be relatively close when it comes to snaps and percentage of use. Montgomery has been nursing an injury lately, so in his place, Gibbs has tacked on more of the workload, but any week could feature one (or both) of these backs exploding onto the scene. If you were lucky enough to draft either, you’re probably in a good place at the RB position, though it will probably be difficult to predict who has the bigger game each Sunday.
What a problem to have.
Dallas Cowboys
Running Backs
at San Francisco 49ers (vs. RB – 16th)
Previous Matchups:
| Player | Week 6 Snap Count & Trend | Week 6 Usage Percentage & Trend | Week 7 Snap Count & Trend | Week 7 Usage Percentage & Trend |
| Dalvin Cook | N/A (Practice Squad) | N/A (Practice Squad) | Bye Week | Bye Week |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 28 (+0) | 28.57% (+10.72) | Bye Week | Bye Week |
| Rico Dowdle | 19 (N/A) | 57.89% (N/A) | Bye Week | Bye Week |
Week 6: vs. Detroit Lions (2nd)
Week 7: Bye Week
I want nothing to do with the Cowboys running game – and you probably shouldn’t either.
If you’re desperate (and I mean DESPERATE), it does appear the opportunity has knocked once again for veteran RB Ezekiel Elliott. It sure wasn’t much, but his snaps have been steady with a lack of stronger options on the roster. Sunday Night against the Niners, Zeke got the call with Dowdle a sudden late scratch due to illness, and while it sure wasn’t pretty, he still managed a rushing TD to salvage his day. Even then, he did himself no favors with his longest rush of the day a simple 11-yard scamper, ensuring Dallas had to air it out often when the game fell out of their hands. Cook was elevated for the first time since signing with the Cowboys with a decent amount of fanfare from the media, but proceeded to average just 2.0 YPC on limited snaps.
Even fresh blood (albeit an aging back much like Zeke) couldn’t rejuvenate a stagnant running game. This offense is just plain bad, and the scheme looks to be the biggest problem. Mike McCarthy does not seem inclined to fix it, and even middle-of-the-pack defenses can key in knowing Dallas can’t run the ball on anyone.
Until that is fixed, no one wins here, especially the fantasy managers who have a stake in any of these players.
Kansas City Chiefs
Wide Receivers
at Las Vegas Raiders (vs. WR – 8th)
Previous Matchups:
| Player | Week 6 Snap Count & Trend | Week 6 Usage Percentage & Trend | Week 7 Snap Count & Trend | Week 7 Usage Percentage & Trend |
| Xavier Worthy | Bye Week | Bye Week | 41 (-3) | 21.95% (-0.90) |
| Justin Watson | Bye Week | Bye Week | 50 (+5) | 2.00% (+3.45) |
| DeAndre Hopkins | N/A (TEN) | N/A (TEN) | N/A (TEN) | N/A (TEN) |
| Mecole Hardman | Bye Week | Bye Week | 21 (+0) | 19.05% (-14.29) |
Week 6: Bye Week
Week 7: at San Francisco 49ers (17th)
The Chiefs made a move to bolster their WR corps, and it was interesting to see just who it impacted.
A rash of injuries have hit Kansas City this season, and with Rashee Rice now on IR and JuJu Smith-Schuster out with a bad hamstring, there was a monster need for the reigning NFL champions. To that end, they made a trade for the savvy veteran Hopkins, one that should hopefully open up the passing game even further for Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has not exactly been his usual lights-out self as of late, and while it hasn’t hurt the Chiefs yet, it’s better to improve now while the team still can. Hopkins himself had a modest outing, seeing the field for 23 snaps and being targeted just three times. It wasn’t great for fantasy numbers, but it’s certainly a start given the time he may need to acclimate.
What I was more curious about was how this would affect the other wideouts going forward. Worthy received his usual complement of snaps and targets, finishing a distant second behind TE Travis Kelce for the team lead in yardage. Watson saw an increase overall in snaps and usage, with his day being modest number-wise. It was Hardman who saw his playing time slip in this one, as last year’s Super Bowl hero found himself receiving just a single target on the afternoon. When Smith-Schuster returns, this positional group may again see an influx, but for now it’s still a toss-up as to who is the foremost name to have out in KC.
Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@bearydoesgfx on X)