Well, calling my shot with Chris Rodriguez Jr. last week did not pan out, considering he was ruled out Sunday morning. I should have led with TreVeyon Henderson, because he had himself a day. If you made it through to a Week 16 Semifinal, here are my recommended start/sits for this week!
A reminder that I judge my “start” or “sit” against a full-PPR format.
Start ‘Em
Jalen Coker, WR – Carolina Panthers
Week 16 Matchup: vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last week, I had Jalen Coker pegged as a sit. Well, he proved me wrong, as he ended up catching all four of his targets for 60 yards and a touchdown against the Saints. Since Week 10, he has not seen fewer than four targets in each game, and has two touchdowns in that five-game span. The Tampa Bay secondary has been suspect as of late, making Coker a viable FLEX this week.
Darren Waller, TE – Miami Dolphins
Week 16 Matchup: vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Darren Waller, the fantasy hero we all planned around this season. Yeah, right. On Monday night in the loss to the Steelers, Waller caught seven of eight targets for 66 yards and two touchdowns, good for a 25.6 full-PPR output. Waller ended up finishing as the TE3 on the week per FantasyData, and could be poised for another potential big game against the Bengals at home. Cincinnati is allowing a league-high 23.4 FPTS/G to opposing TEs on the season. It’s worth noting that on Wednesday morning, news broke that Tua Tagovailoa was being benched in favor of rookie Quinn Ewers, which could certainly make you temper expectations a bit here for Waller.
Chris Olave, WR – New Orleans Saints
Week 16 Matchup: vs New York Jets
Last week, Chris Olave gave fantasy owners a bit of a scare early on with how quiet he was. At halftime, he was targeted just twice, with one catch for seven yards. He came alive for the remainder of the game, finishing with six catches on nine targets for 85 yards and a touchdown. Since Week 12 (post-Week 11 BYE), Olave is averaging 8.5 targets per game and has two touchdowns in that four-game span. The Jets, on paper, may be middle of the pack in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing WRs this season, but Olave is a smash start this week.
Sit ‘Em
RJ Harvey, RB – Denver Broncos
Week 16 Matchup: vs Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville defense has been stout against the run this season, allowing a league-low 1,208 yards to running backs. Pair that data with the fact that RJ Harvey is dealing with a rib injury, and I’m not ecstatic about starting him this week. It is hard to ignore the fact that he has found the end zone four times in the last three games. That said, for me, this is a spot where I would avoid starting him if you can afford to do so.
Jake Ferguson, TE – Dallas Cowboys
Week 16 Matchup: vs Los Angeles Chargers
The targets still may be there, but Jake Ferguson has been held without a touchdown dating back to Week 12, and without finding the end zone, he’s turned into a risky TE stream week over week. He’s averaging just under six targets per game in that span, with a total of 17 catches for 170 scoreless yards. The Chargers are strong against tight ends on the year, allowing just a collective 11.5 FPTS/G to the position per FantasyData.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR – Indianapolis Colts
Week 16 Matchup: vs San Francisco 49ers (MNF)
Life with Philip Rivers under center is going to look bleak the rest of the fantasy season (and IRL) for Michael Pittman Jr. In last week’s last-minute loss to the Seahawks, Pittman caught three of five targets for 26 scoreless yards, which actually led all WRs on the day for the Colts. The targets may be there again, but I would be hard-pressed to rely on Pittman in a pivotal Semifinal matchup this week.
– Matthew Cava (@cavaM_ Twitter & Reddit)
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurt_player02 on Instagram & Threads | @kuwasemiller.bksy.social on BlueSky)