Welcome to Week 12! A hearty congratulations to all those who played the Taysom slot machine last week, and my heartfelt condolences to those who faced the managers who did so. Things weren’t the prettiest for us last week as we squeaked by with mediocre bend-but-not-break submissions from the Packers and the Dolphins. Fortunately, the Texans delivered last night for us, bringing in a big score to round us out. We have some tough choices this week, as six more teams are on the bye. What is crazy is that this isn’t even the last time we will have six teams on a bye for the season! Keep that in mind as things get a little tricky for us again in Week 14 just in time for the fantasy playoffs. For now, let’s dig in to find some teams that are rostered in around 50 percent of leagues or fewer.
Please note: there’s a decent chance that better teams above this 50 percent threshold are available in your league, but we can’t assume they’re out there for everyone. We have to draw the proverbial line somewhere, so stay active and monitor the league home page; someone might drop a desirable defense after waivers clear.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opponent: @ New York Giants
ESPN % Rostered: 9%
Yahoo % Rostered: 14%
I want to feature Tampa Bay for both this week and the path forward. For Week 12, the Buccaneers will travel to New York to be the first team to face Tommy DeVito in 2024. The Buccaneers have a lot of people hesitant after limping into their bye week from a defensive standpoint. They have had an extra week of rest coming off a buzzsaw of a gauntlet schedule and are now coming out the other side to a considerably softer set of teams down the stretch. The Giants have surrendered 16 sacks and 6 turnovers over their last four games, giving up an average of 10 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses. New York also has the sixth-fewest total passing yards for the season. Fun fact: the Buccaneers have three cornerbacks inside Pro Football Focus’ top 25 grades at the position. A bigger focus will be Tampa Bay’s fifth-most blitz calls in the league against DeVito’s first start of the season.
I also want to bring attention to the ROS schedule for the Buccaneers. As opposed to what I mentioned with this team coming into the bye week with a black eye, they exit the bye week with a rather favorable schedule. From where it looks currently, there’s a lone bump in the road to be mindful of at Week 15 when they travel to the Chargers, but otherwise, Tampa Bay should be a target for streamers to add waivers.
Washington Commanders
Opponent: vs Dallas Cowboys
ESPN % Rostered: 28%
Yahoo % Rostered: 21%
Another team that is coming off being punched in the mouth is the Commanders. They now have a few days of extra rest from their Thursday night loss to host the Cowboys, who are free-falling this season. Last week brought us the news that Prescott’s IR period was extended from four weeks to the rest of the season pending surgery. This news, combined with the fact Washington boasts the fourth-highest scoring offense in the league, means there is a decent chance this game gets out of hand and we go from Cooper Rush to Trey Lance. Dallas has surrendered eight sacks and seven turnovers while having given up 37 fantasy points in just two games! And while the Commanders have been gashed from the running game, Dallas has the league’s second-worst rushing attack this season. Give me the defense that is in the top ten for the fewest passing yards allowed with the league’s sixth-highest blitz rate against a backup quarterback.
Arizona Cardinals
Opponent: @ Seattle Seahawks
ESPN % Rostered: 2%
Yahoo % Rostered: 4%
Continuing the trend of focusing on defenses rebounding from a bad fantasy score last week, we now look to the Cardinals, who scored zero fantasy points in Week 11! Sure, they were on bye, but we aren’t going to let the details stop a fun trend now. In correlation with the six teams on bye this week, this game is admittedly a little lower on the confidence scale, but recent trends point to this being a potentially good streaming candidate. Arizona entered their bye week after a two-game stretch of 9 sacks and only 15 combined points allowed on defense. Seattle is coming into this game after a three-game stretch that has seen them give up 12 sacks and 6 turnovers while averaging 8-9 fantasy points to opposing defenses. Seattle is a one-dimensional offense right now with a woeful running game that comes in near the bottom over the last three-game stretch, so look for Arizona to focus on containing that after their extra week of rest in this divisional rivalry.
Playoff Watch
If you aren’t lucky enough to have rostered the Lions or the Vikings, here are a few hits in addition to the Buccaneers that you should keep an eye out for in the playoff schedule:
Philadelphia Eagles (E:60% Y!:71%) – Other than facing Baltimore in week 13, the Eagles have a favorable schedule starting now. It’s worth checking out if they’re available in your league for this week.
Cincinnati Bengals (E:31% Y!:22%) – Cincinnati is on bye this week but will face a lot of questionable offenses for the remainder of the year.
Kansas City Chiefs (E:58% Y!:78%) – The rich get richer as the Chiefs face a softer schedule for the remainder of the year.
Baltimore Ravens (E:59% Y!:75%) – Keep an eye out for this one later. Baltimore has a late bye in week 14 and a nice schedule following it. Be ready to put in a claim when the time comes.
If you see something I don’t, leave a comment or hit me up with feedback @MikeoftheFF on Twitter or find me on Reddit!
Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) / Photography by Leslie Plaza Johnson / Icon Sportswire