Welcome to Week 12! A quick glance back to last week saw 18 DSTs underperform in the stat sheet in a week where we saw Cam Ward had a career high 13 fantasy points, which was good for about triple what Lamar Jackson finished with. A receiver managed a goose egg despite a team-high 88% route run participation, and it’s not even the first time they’ve done that this season. That theme seemed to stick with the team overall, as the Chargers seemed to have suffered some jet lag with what they delivered. However, the Ravens and the Cowboys came out on top for us across the league with their defensive performances. This week has one of the most rostered defenses on bye, as well as some other staples with tough matchups that will leave a lot of managers looking to the waivers, so let’s dig into what is out there in around 50 percent of leagues or fewer.
Please note that there’s a decent chance that better teams above this 50 percent threshold are available in your league, but we can’t assume they’re available to everyone. We have to draw the proverbial line somewhere, so stay active and monitor the league home page; someone might drop a desirable defense after waivers clear.
Cleveland Browns
Opponent: @ Las Vegas Raiders
ESPN % Rostered: 41%
Yahoo % Rostered: 50%
Since getting called out by local media a month ago, defensive end Myles Garrett has been an absolute wrecking ball of late. Cleveland has racked up a staggering 18 sacks over their past four games, and Garrett is responsible for 11 of them. Over that aforementioned 4-game stretch, the Browns have generated 10 turnovers while averaging double-digit fantasy points in that stretch. This is a defense that is allowing the fewest air yards per completion, with seven interceptions over their last four games, now going against quarterback Geno Smith. Smith has been sacked 12 times in the Raiders’ last three games while continuing an interception streak that is now three games long, which also puts him as the league-leader in interceptions thrown so far. Las Vegas is allowing right around 10 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses since their bye week.
Las Vegas Raiders
Opponent: vs. Cleveland Browns
ESPN % Rostered: 6%
Yahoo % Rostered: 5%
With all that said about the greatness of the Cleveland defense of late also comes the flip side of the coin, presenting one of the league’s worst offenses. The Raiders are generating an average of 1.5 turnovers per game since their bye week and have registered at least one sack in all but one of their games this season. Now they will face a Browns offense with a question mark at quarterback as Dillon Gabriel starts this practice week in concussion protocol, which leaves the possibility that Cleveland could be starting Shedeur Sanders for this game. Gabriel had not thrown for at least 170 yards in his last four starts with a two to one touchdown:interception ratio and 10 sacks taken in that same span. Sanders’ first game ever came in a relief effort last week, where his limited work saw him go for a 25% completion rate to go along with one interception and two sacks.
San Francisco 49ers
Opponent: vs. Carolina Panthers
ESPN % Rostered: 17%
Yahoo % Rostered: 18%
San Francisco is coming off a lopsided travel schedule that saw five of their last seven games on the road, but now the opposition gets a lot lighter for them in the next few weeks, with the Panthers, Browns, and Titans coming up for them. The 49ers generated three turnovers last week while holding their opponents to under 40 total rushing yards. In full disclosure, the secondary was suspect in that same game, getting gashed, so this 49ers pick does come with a little bit of hesitation. Quarterback Bryce Young has only two games this season throwing for more than 200 yards, as Carolina has been favorable to stream against recently when they are not playing teams out of Atlanta. In their past four games, the Panthers have given up 15 sacks and six turnovers on offense.
After the Cut
Buffalo Bills (E:45% Y!:50%) – Vegas thinks this will be a low-scoring game with Davis Mills, who has been held under 300 yards passing this season, in line for his third start this Thursday.
Los Angeles Rams (E:60% Y!:57%) – The red-hot NFC West leaders will host a slumping Tampa Bay team this Sunday night. The Rams had four interceptions last week to put them on a three-game pick streak.
Jacksonville Jaguars (E:30% Y!:21%) – The Jaguars have been heating up on defense of late after their bye and will now be tested on the road against Jacoby Brissett, who just set the regular-season completions record last week.
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Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter)