Welcome to Week 16 and the second week of the playoffs. Let’s check in with how we did last week. The Packers, Broncos, and Browns were home run picks, each getting you double-digit points for your fantasy teams. The Commanders didn’t allow many points, but they also didn’t score any points, registering zeros across the board resulting in a paltry amount of points for your team sadly. Still, 3 out of 4 isn’t so bad.
This week has some great picks, but sadly, they are just outside the range of rostering for us to feature in the main section. Check towards the end of the article to see them. Meanwhile, let’s see what we have in store for our riskier picks of the week. As always, we’re looking for teams rostered around 50% or lower rostered.
Please note that there is a good chance better teams are out there in your league than these four, but we cannot assume they’re out there for every league. Stay active and monitor the league home page, there is also a chance someone will drop a defense after the waivers clear for this week as well.
Opponent: vs Houston Texans
ESPN % Rostered: 27%
Yahoo % Rostered: 49%
Let’s start by going with the team that is facing the Texans, who are giving up the second-most fantasy points to defenses this season. Tennessee faces a Houston team that is without Dameon Pierce and has given up 20+ fantasy points in 3 out of their last 5 games. They are a stout run defense, giving up the second-fewest rushing yards and rushing yards per attempt on the season. Look for them to make Houston one-dimensional and force Davis Mills and the 7th worst passing offense in the league to beat them. In their last 5 games, the Texans have given up 11 sacks, 7 interceptions, and fumbled the ball over 5 times. The only thing I hesitate about here is that it is a divisional game, those always come with some potential spice.
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) December 20, 2022
No, seriously watch this twitter clip. That’s just insane.
Opponent: @ New York Jets
ESPN % Rostered: 7%
Yahoo % Rostered: 7%
I wouldn’t blame you for taking a pass on this one, but Jacksonville has been pretty hot as of late with 10 sacks and 8 turnovers in their last 4 games since their bye week. They now take that defense against a team that will be starting Zach Wilson in place of the injured Mike White. Wilson’s completion percentages for his last two games were 51% and 40% respectively. In the last three games, the Jets have been sacked 9 times and turned the ball over 5 times. The Jaguars have now scored double-digit fantasy points in back-to-back games and will look to keep the streak alive against New York and their bottom ten rushing offense (Jacksonville is a top 10 rushing defense on the year). The Jaguars are top-5 in quarterback hurries and top-10 in overall pressure, so look for Wilson to have limited time to find the receiver.
— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) December 18, 2022
Los Angeles Chargers
Opponent: @ Indianapolis Colts
ESPN % Rostered: 18%
Yahoo % Rostered: 24%
If we’re going to recommend teams going against opponents that give up high fantasy points, we might as well throw in the defense facing the team giving up the most points in fantasy as well. It also helps that Jonathan Taylor is now done for the year and won’t be playing. In their last four games, the Colts have been sacked 13 times and turned the ball over 9 times. Meanwhile, the Chargers have picked up 7 sacks and 5 turnovers in their last four games. Los Angeles’ cornerback Michael Davis has the most passes defended over the last four weeks in the entire league. While the Chargers are averaging a decent 7 fantasy points per game as a unit over the last three games, in that same period Indianapolis is giving up an average of over 11 fantasy points per game.
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) December 19, 2022
Los Angeles Rams
Opponent: vs Denver Broncos
ESPN % Rostered: 23%
Yahoo % Rostered: 32%
Let’s cap this wild adventure off with a Rams defense that’s generated 8 turnovers in their last four games. They will face a Denver team that has given up 18 sacks and 6 turnovers themselves in that same four-game stretch. Word has it that Russell Wilson was medically cleared to play last week, but the team held him out as a precaution. He starts this week with a questionable designation. Los Angeles is a top-5 rushing defense in both yards allowed overall and yards per play given up on the ground. They will look to leverage that advantage to make Wilson go through them using the pass. While he did look decent in his last game played, he’s been atrocious on the season before that and he still turned the ball over and was sacked 6 times in that decent game anyway.
Big stop from Flo! 😤
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) December 20, 2022
If you aren’t sold on these teams, you might also want to check out the Cleveland Browns this week and their matchup; they were a very close runner-up to make the column.
These teams did not meet the consideration threshold for the main highlight section, but you should check to see if they’re available in your league:
New York Jets – ESPN: 56% Y!: 41%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ESPN: 61% Y!: 69%
Denver Broncos – ESPN: 62% Y!: 69%
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Photos by Zach Bolinger & Stephen Lew/Icon Sportswire | Design by Michael Packard (@designsbypack on Twitter @ IG)