Welcome to Week 17! Congratulations if you had a player whose name starts with the letter “J” as 50% of the overall top 20 fantasy performers this week fit that criteria. And my condolences to those who went against them and were knocked out of the playoffs. Especially those who still put up a competitive score despite your quarterback, unfortunately, leaving the game early with a concussion and will now miss the championship by just a few points, even though your decision to start the running back from Carolina paid off all while sitting there on your knees staring at the box score refreshing every minute as if that’s going to offer any solace or solution… But I digress. From injury devastations early on to nuclear Josh Allen games and to all those who were right about Saquon on draft day, this has been a roller coaster ride of a season. I want to take a sentence to thank every one of you who read the column this season, even if it was just by a misclick, I still appreciate you very much. I hope your team wins it all. And if they don’t, I’m certain they will next season!
But for this week, it’s time to buckle up as we have football on five of the six days coming up, starting with two Christmas Day games on Netflix, then going into the regular TNF before hitting three games on Saturday and concluding with the rest of the usual scheduled slate. So, let’s focus on some of the better matchups to take us home. Last week, we hit the jackpot as the Packers, the Falcons, and the Bengals all registered as the three highest D/ST performances of the week! Now, let’s look into the teams that are rostered in around 50 percent of leagues or fewer that can help get us that final W.
Please note: there’s a decent chance that better teams above this 50 percent threshold are available in your league, but we can’t assume they’re out there for everyone. We have to draw the proverbial line somewhere, so stay active and monitor the league home page; someone might drop a desirable defense after waivers clear.
Indianapolis Colts
Opponent: @ New York Giants
ESPN % Rostered: 27%
Yahoo % Rostered: 47%
It’s the gift that keeps on giving that is just in time for Christmas. Up next on the Giants’ schedule is Indianapolis. In the last two games, the Giants have turned the ball over six times and allowed seven sacks, all while being held to single-digit points scoring with only one touchdown. Now they will host the Colts, who have registered multiple interceptions against both teams they have played since their bye week, picking them off three times each. They are top ten in overall turnovers generated owing to having the fourth most interceptions in the league. Now they get to play the team that just threw two pick-sixes in their last game. After last week’s game against the Falcons, the new average fantasy points per game to teams opposing New York’s offense is now up to 14!
Miami Dolphins
Opponent: @ Cleveland Browns
ESPN % Rostered: 45%
Yahoo % Rostered: 47%
We got our answer to what happens when Cleveland switches quarterbacks, and that is the turnovers do not stop, but the offense overall certainly did. That’s the fourth game in a row where they’ve allowed at least three sacks and three turnovers each, only this time; they were held to just six points in scoring. The offense under Dorian Thompson-Robinson failed to accumulate more than 150 yards passing, and 66 of the 148 total rushing yards came on one play. He is now questionable with a calf strain, but even if he doesn’t suit up, it’s already been shown that the turnovers should just keep on rolling in. The Dolphins’ defense now has 10 sacks and 2 turnovers, averaging 21 points allowed over their last three games. I am aware that there are concerns when Miami travels north in the Winter, but the kick-off temperature is expected to be around 50 degrees for this one.
Washington Commanders
Opponent: vs. Atlanta Falcons
ESPN % Rostered: 38%
Yahoo % Rostered: 35%
Do you think Dan Quinn will want to run the score up on the previous team he was the head coach for? Either way, Michael Penix Jr and the Falcons travel to Maryland to take on the Commanders in his second start at quarterback. Washington has now held opponents to under 20 points scoring in two of their last three games. In that time, they have generated a lot of pressure, resulting in five turnovers and nine sacks. Even though they allowed over thirty points scored last week to the Eagles, they still came away with seven fantasy points in part due to the disruption from their defense with two turnovers and four sacks. Now, they will look to improve upon that against a rookie quarterback. Washington has the fewest yards allowed after the catch in the league and the sixth-highest blitz rate on the season. I expect them to try to force the young quarterback into long down-and-distance situations to try and force mistakes.
From all of us at QBList, Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!
Honorable Mentions
Seattle Seahawks (E:20% Y!:19%) – Seattle has a decent floor here as the Bears have given up multiple sacks per game all year long in addition to four turnovers in the last three games.
Buffalo Bills (E:56% Y!:90%) – Will the other league managers catch on to the trend-setting Yahoo managers as the Bills host their next AFC East rival Jets? Or is it the Yahoo users who are wrong?
Jacksonville Jaguars (E:14% Y!:10%) vs Tennessee Titans (E:23% Y!:22%) – Last time I noted this AFC South game earlier this season, both defenses did well, so here we are again with the rematch if your options are running thin.
If you see something I don’t, leave a comment or hit me up with feedback @MikeoftheFF on Twitter or find me on Reddit!
Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) / Photography by Jeffrey Brown / Icon Sportswire