Welcome to Week 17 and the championship week! It’s all on the line: whether you are trying to win it all or just avoid the last place league penalty, it has come down to this. Last week saw all three of our picks come through with flying colors as the Bills handled their business with a great performance, the Vikings delivered us double-digit points, and the Saints were the number one fantasy DST last week! Previously this season, I had mentioned that some weeks would “fall off fast” in reference to a less-than-average amount of viable options you could feel good about streaming. This week has no good feelings to start. It starts out shaky and just gets even lower from there in Streamerland this week, as all the great matchups are with the defenses that have made a household name for themselves this season and are already rostered in an overwhelming majority of leagues. So the only teams that seem like a sure thing to start are most likely not available in your league. However, if you will indulge me at the end of the season here, I’d like to tell a quick holiday time story about “sure things”.
What is a sure thing? A solid defense last season that was averaging 1.6 turnovers and just over 2 sacks while allowing 22 points per game, going against the last-place team? A bottom dweller that was wallowing in misery and competing for the number one overall pick in next season’s draft? A last-place team that had benched its starting quarterback and relegated them to playing in the secondary on their scout team for crying out loud! Well, that last-place team was coming into Week 17 last season on a 10-game losing streak, averaging a meager 12.6 points per game. Not fantasy, actual NFL scoreboard points! They were giving up more sacks (3.6) and turnovers (1.5) per game than they were scoring touchdowns (1.4). They were averaging 270 offensive yards per game over that stretch while averaging 14 fantasy points to every opposing DST heading into that week. That sounds like a sure thing, right? I think I even called it “the Christmas gift” for managers that week. So what happened? Offensive juggernaut Drew Lock had a near-perfect passer rating, throwing four touchdowns, as for the first time all season, the Giants committed zero turnovers and allowed zero sacks while dumping 45 points on the Colts that had “gifted” fantasy managers negative points for that championship week last season.
So what can we take away from this? God hates the Colts. That nothing is a guarantee, no matter how much of a lock it may seem like. So now that we’re second-guessing everything heading into the most important week, let’s go over what has floated to the top for us to skim off in around 50 percent of leagues or fewer. I also cannot stress this enough, especially this week, but do check out the bottom for additional recommendations that just didn’t quite make the threshold cut to be featured. After all, there’s a decent chance that better teams above this 50 percent threshold are available in your league, but we can’t assume they’re available to everyone. We have to draw the proverbial line somewhere, so stay active and monitor the league home page; someone might drop a desirable defense after waivers clear.
From all of us at QBList, have a safe and Merry Christmas!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opponent: @ Miami Dolphins
ESPN % Rostered: 32%
Yahoo % Rostered: 40%
Tampa Bay is fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive as the NFC South is coming down to the wire. Before their final showdown of the regular season at home against their rival, they first have to go on the road and face a Dolphins team that started their seventh-round rookie draft pick, Quinn Ewers last week. With their season wrapped up, they have handed the reins over to see what they have in Ewers. In Week 16, he threw for 260 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions against a Bengals defense that has been previously described as “porous”. This week, he will be facing a Buccaneer front that has the fifth-highest blitz rating in the league. This same front has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards all season, so look for them to pin Ewers back and test him in third-and-long situations all day.
Dallas Cowboys
Opponent: @ Washington Commanders
ESPN % Rostered: 25%
Yahoo % Rostered: 25%
I warned you it was rough out there this week. Lately, this Cowboy defense has not inspired confidence to put it mildly, but two things tip the scales to be more favorable for me. First, newly announced Pro Bowler DT Quinnen Williams has returned to practice this week after missing last week’s game. Second, it’s a short week as this game takes place on Christmas Day, and quarterback Marcus Mariota has not practiced this week after leaving last week’s game with a hand injury. His replacement, Josh Johnson, was 5 of 9 passing with a sack and an interception after taking over that game. I am banking on the fact that Dallas is tied for the league’s highest quarterback pressure rating on defense, going against Washington’s third-string quarterback, as there won’t be enough time for Mariota to be cleared before the Thursday afternoon game.
New York Giants
Opponent: @ Las Vegas Raiders
ESPN % Rostered: 9%
Yahoo % Rostered: 11%
It seemed fitting after my fireplace story time session in the intro that I feature the Giants here. After all, the Raiders have allowed double-digit fantasy points to their last seven opponents coming into this week, in addition to giving up 36 sacks in that seven-game stretch. Sounds eerily familiar. Foreboding fables aside, the Giants have actually come out looking much improved on defense after their bye week. They have garnered six sacks and four turnovers in their last two games and featured a sack-fumble by recently announced Pro Bowler LB Brian Burns that resulted in a DST touchdown last week. Even if you understandably don’t like to factor in touchdowns as they are ‘too flukey’, they still came away with double-digit fantasy points even with subtracting that touchdown last week.
After the Cut
Most of these teams have better outlooks this week, but are rostered in a majority of leagues. Check to see if they are available in yours!
Pittsburgh Steelers (E:61% Y!:66%) – Earlier this season on the road in Cleveland, Pittsburgh had six sacks en route to a solid performance. Now they will be at home for this division rematch.
Jacksonville Jaguars (E:62% Y!:52%) – The first go-around earlier this season, the Jaguars came away with double-digit fantasy points. Now they face Philip Rivers this time around and will look to keep everything in front of them.
New England Patriots (E:71% Y!:50%) – Jets have given up over 40 fantasy points in their last three games to opposing DSTs.
Detroit Lions (E:60% Y!:56%) – The Lions join the Cowboys this week in defenses that do not look great but are playing against questionable opposing quarterbacks, as Max Brosmer will be starting for the Vikings on this Christmas Day game.
New Orleans Saints (E:57% Y!:63%) – The heroes from last week return to play Tennessee this week. This Saints team is on a three-game winning streak, but the Titans’ offense is also looking revitalized as of late. Both teams here seem to be ending the season strong in this one.
If you see something I don’t, leave a comment or hit me up with feedback @MikeoftheFF on Twitter or find me on Reddit!
Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) / Photography by Randy Litzinger / Icon Sportswire