Welcome to Week 18 and the end of a few things! First off, the end of the season and championships are celebrated. It was the end of dreams that never got off the ground due to many injuries this year. And the end of being able to start whoever is playing the Giants, no matter what. This is not only because they are playing against a Philadelphia team that is already rostered in an overwhelming number of leagues this week but also because they ran all over the Colts last week! There were tons of consolation posts all across social media as we collectively poured one out for each other. The Commanders also had to take it to extra time just to overcome Penix Jr last week. Fortunately, we still had the Dolphins come through for us for double-digit points last week in Cleveland. So, for transparency and accountability, this ends our season with roughly a 70% success rate in picking defenses to stream that are not rostered in a majority of leagues. While there were a few flukes that no one saw coming, there were also some things I have learned from, and I look forward to using that knowledge to make this column even better for next season. Above all else, I want to thank all of you for taking the time to click and perhaps even read the article. It means a lot, so thank you!
In more light-hearted news, we found our poster banner model for the special teams aspect of this category from last night. Fox Sports social media has also posted a high-resolution picture for those needing something to cover an entire wall of their war room. Now for some picks to those leagues that play through the entire NFL regular season, but caveat emptor; many teams will opt to rest their stars with future aspirations for the franchise, be it for next week or next season, so be careful. We will look to see who we can focus on from teams that are rostered in around 50 percent of leagues or fewer that can help get us that final W.
Please note: there’s a decent chance that better teams above this 50 percent threshold are available in your league, but we can’t assume they’re out there for everyone. We have to draw the proverbial line somewhere, so stay active and monitor the league home page; someone might drop a desirable defense after waivers clear.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opponent: vs New Orleans Saints
ESPN % Rostered: 50%
Yahoo % Rostered: 45%
The Buccaneers play at the same time as the Falcons do and need to win to ensure they get the tiebreaker if needed. The last time they played the Saints in Louisiana, they blew them out of the water with three turnovers, five sacks, and a touchdown. Tampa Bay has achieved double-digit fantasy points in 4 of their 6 games since their bye week. Every time the Buccaneers hold their opponent to fewer than 20 points, they average 12 fantasy points per game on defense. The last time New Orleans scored more than 20 points was Week 11. The Saints are currently on a streak of allowing 3+ sacks and 2 turnovers per game right now on offense.
Atlanta Falcons
Opponent: vs Carolina Panthers
ESPN % Rostered: 24%
Yahoo % Rostered: 30%
Logically, this also means the Falcons will be playing for it all, as they need a win to maintain any hope of advancing (with help from the division in addition). They are hosting a Carolina offense that just got dunked on by Tampa Bay and has now given up double-digit fantasy points in two of their last three games. Over that three-game stretch, they have allowed 14 sacks, 4 turnovers, and a touchdown to opposing defenses. In the Falcons’ last three games, two of them had their defense score 20+ fantasy points in back-to-back games. The last time they played in North Carolina, the Falcons picked Bryce Young off twice. Now they host them in the rematch in Georgia, needing a win.
Washington Commanders
Opponent: vs. Dallas Cowboys
ESPN % Rostered: 38%
Yahoo % Rostered: 35%
The last time these two teams played each other earlier in the season, the special teams dissolved in front of our very eyes on national television. This time around, the Commanders find themselves locked in with Green Bay playing musical chairs with who gets left standing to have to travel to Philadelphia as opposed to Los Angeles or Tampa/Atlanta. Also, at this point of the season, Dallas is being held together with duct tape and popsicle sticks. Severe depletion to their front line, in addition to now losing their star wide receiver, will see this offense much more limited than last time around. Washington has nine sacks and four turnovers in their last three games, while the Cowboys are coming off a four-turnover performance from last week alone.
From all of us at QBList, Happy New Year!
Benching Bonanza
Denver Broncos (E:75% Y!:66%) – The Broncos are opening the week as 9-point favorites, which everyone is assuming will beat down the 2nd and 3rd stringers from the Chiefs as they rest all of their starters for this one.
New England Patriots (E:2% Y!:3%) – Head coach McDermott has stated that Josh Allen will get one drive and then join the rest of the starters on the bench for the remainder of the game. But how lucky do you feel riding with the 2024 Patriots?
Seattle Seahawks (E:27% Y!:36%) – Sean McVay has already said he plans on resting his starters even though the Rams could still be battling for the third seed. Is this coach speak for Seattle, or is he just predicting a Buccaneers loss ahead of time?
New York Giants (E:3% Y!:3%) – I would be surprised if any of the starters from Philadelphia play in this one, and yes, I include Barkley in that.
Tennessee Titans (E:22% Y!:22%) – Head coach Ryans has said the starters will start for this game but also alluded to them coming out of the game not long after.
Las Vegas Raiders (E:15% Y!:17%) – This is a big if/then clause: If the Steelers win the night before and the Chargers are locked into their spot, then the Raiders become a high streaming consideration.
Green Bay Packers (E:58% Y!:58%) – Saved this one for last as my nod to the people getting through the whole read- The Packers are playing hot potato with the Commanders to see who can avoid traveling to Philadelphia next week. Worth the start against the Bears.
If you see something I don’t, leave a comment or hit me up with feedback @MikeoftheFF on Twitter or find me on Reddit!
Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) / Photography by Leslie Plaza Johnson / Icon Sportswire