Welcome to The End! It’s Week 18, and most championships have been decided, but a fair amount are still going through this week, so we take up the charge one last time. Last week saw some rough options for people in competitive leagues as the Buccaneers and the Cowboys struggled defensively; however, the Giants did break through with the second-highest fantasy points last week! Hopefully, you either planned ahead or were lucky enough to be in a league that had one of the many aforementioned defenses that did not qualify for the three less-rostered defenses, as any one of those that were listed at the end had a solid performance on the day. And for those interested in transparency, with those two teams stumbling, that dropped our overall success rate of picking three defenses every week from 74% to 71% to end the season. There was also a wild hump in the middle of the season for Week 9 and Week 10, where we saw a very high amount of underdogs either cover or even outright upset their favored opponents! This was a dent in fantasy DST rankings across the web and was no stranger to this article as well. While in the end this is overall satisfactory given the rostership handicap imposed for this article’s purpose, the overall goal will be to improve upon this further for an even better success rate when we come back stronger in 2026!
Some fun facts for the season before getting into this week’s picks. Three teams were perfect for us coming through each time we called upon them at least three times this season: The Rams, the Chargers, and the Bears! The team that landed here the most this season was actually a tie between the 49ers and the Buccaneers. Unfortunately, the team that was the least reliable, letting us down the most among qualifying teams this season, was the Cowboys. For fantasy DST in general, the Chargers were the top 10 defense that was rostered the least over the entire season in ESPN, while it was the Vikings for Yahoo. On the other end of that spectrum, the Ravens were the highest overall bottom ten defense for ESPN, and it was the Chiefs for Yahoo. The race for the best fantasy DST was won by the Seahawks, slightly edging out the Texans for the top spot. Those two teams gapped the rest of the league as the third-place team came in around 25 to 40 points behind those top two, depending on your platform! The defense that was rostered the most in fantasy this season was the Broncos. Even though they were noticeably behind the top two, they still scored four times as many points as the worst DST in fantasy, the Cowboys.
Please note that there’s a decent chance that better teams above this 50 percent threshold are available in your league, but we can’t assume they’re available to everyone. We have to draw the proverbial line somewhere, so stay active and monitor the league home page; someone might drop a desirable defense after waivers clear.
From all of us at QBList, have a safe and happy New Year! We will see you in the mock draft lobbies before you know it!
Minnesota Vikings
Opponent: vs. Green Bay Packers
ESPN % Rostered: 43%
Yahoo % Rostered: 38%
While yes, the Vikings did finally allow a passing touchdown last week, that’s still only one in the last seven games. Not to mention, while quarterback Jared Goff did throw a touchdown against them, he also turned the ball over a staggering five times that same game. This week, they come into this game favored by a touchdown while the over/under is set at just below 37 points. Vegas strongly suspects the roughed-up Packers are going to opt to rest their starters as they are locked into the seventh seed before this game even kicks off. So whoever Green Bay puts out there, they will be opposed by a defense that is top-three in fewest passing yards and fewest passing touchdowns allowed on the season, as well as having the highest blitz-rate in the league by a fair margin, which gives them an overall third-best quarterback pressure rating.
Kansas City Chiefs
Opponent: @ Las Vegas Raiders
ESPN % Rostered: 31%
Yahoo % Rostered: 50%
To put it bluntly, one team is checking out much harder than the other team is checking out for the season in this game. Las Vegas has already sent most of their star players away, save for running back Ashton Jeanty. There are rumors all over the internet regarding the Raiders’ head coach’s employment status, but as of this writing, I cannot substantiate any of them with a reasonable source. Regardless, it does not paint a solid picture for the Raiders in this game, which is going to feature mistakes and turnovers. Kansas City is allowing the sixth-fewest rushing yards allowed per attempt and is top ten in fewest overall offensive yards allowed on the season. They have the third-highest blitz rate in the league, as well as the second-lowest average depth of target when thrown against. Whoever Las Vegas rolls out at quarterback is going to have their hands full.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Opponent: vs. Tennessee Titans
ESPN % Rostered: 62%
Yahoo % Rostered: 50%
So this one cheats the threshold of the article a little bit, but it is Week 18, so I’m allowing it. Jacksonville needs this win to hold off a Texans team that is almost certain to win their matchup in order to avoid a tie-breaker for the division that would favor Houston. Both games for the AFC South will happen simultaneously, so there is almost no chance the Jaguars could sit this one out, even if Houston were to fumble the game away, so to speak. The Jaguars have a staggering 8 interceptions over their last four games; however, one thing quarterback Cam Ward does well is take care of the ball. He does not have a lot of interceptions this season, comparatively speaking, partly due to the fact that he has zero time to attempt a pass as he is either running for his life or eating a sack. Which brings me to my next point, Ward is tied for the most sacked quarterback on the entire season. The last time these two teams played each other this season, the Jaguars came away with two turnovers and three sacks while only allowing three points.
After the Cut
Buffalo Bills (E:57% Y!:63%) – Hosting the Jets, who have been very generous to opposing fantasy defenses lately, for this upcoming possible snow game.
Arizona Cardinals (E:8% Y!:4%) – The Rams are not shy about resting their starters even when seeding is on the line, and with the 5th seed out of reach, I could see Los Angeles resting everyone. That said, the Cardinals have struggled at times to stop a nosebleed, let alone an NFL offense. However, they have one thing going for them: they are the number one-ranked defense when sorted alphabetically.
If you see something I don’t, leave a comment or hit me up with feedback @MikeoftheFF on Twitter or find me on Reddit!
Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) / Photography by Bailey Hillesheim / Icon Sportswire