Welcome to Week 2! It’s good to be back, and before us lies the challenge of trying to make sense of things with only a single week in the books. We can try to quantify the offseason changes to both the roster and the coaching staff of all the teams to give us a little bit of aid, but the comically worded wisdom remains true: “You don’t know what you don’t know.” The start of every NFL season brings upon us uncertainty and a few wild swings of change as we try to figure out after only one game if that team is really that good now or if their opponent was just really that bad. The first two weeks are the toughest to predict, as the statistical evidence is shallow and most of the unknowns will still be undiscovered for another week or two moving forward. The first example that pops into my head is the story of the 2024 Saints, who opened the season with back-to-back 40-point bombs on their opponents. Analysts and writers were already crowning them the NFC South and wondering how amazing this team would be in fantasy for the rest of the year. Then started a 7-game losing streak that ultimately led to their head coach’s firing and finishing the season at 5-12 while averaging less than 20 points per game from there on out. So let the overreacting begin!
Some tidbits of note from Week 1 as we try to make sense of the results:
Green Bay was up 22-10 against Carson Wentz with 18 minutes left in the game.
Dallas only had two possessions for the entire second half as their defense couldn’t even stop a nosebleed.
Meanwhile, Commanders safety Tyler Owens put the rest of the NFC East on notice.
Between the major fantasy platforms for Week 1, about 84% of the thousands upon thousands of users thought the Rams -2.5 was the play, only to find out Rams +20 wouldn’t have even been enough for a win. 97% of users were confident that the Chargers would win outright! Instead, the Cardinals took the road victory by more than two scores. 93% of users were one play away from picking the wrong team between the Saints and the Lions. All of this is to say that we are in a new season with new changes. Inevitably, every year has a couple of teams that are doomed to woefully underperform versus offseason expectations, just as there’s going to be a prior losing team or two that rebounds out of nowhere to make a run at the playoffs. In the end, this is your fantasy team, so go with what you think is the best choice every week. In the meantime, let’s try to make some sense of things as we look forward to some of the best matchups for defenses to stream that are rostered in around 50 percent of leagues or fewer.
Please note that there’s a decent chance that better teams above this 50 percent threshold are available in your league, but we can’t assume they’re available to everyone. We have to draw the proverbial line somewhere, so stay active and monitor the league home page; someone might drop a desirable defense after waivers clear.
San Francisco 49ers
Opponent: vs. Miami Dolphins
ESPN % Rostered: 7%
Yahoo % Rostered: 11%
Sorry if this was a little delayed getting out; some of us are a bit jet-lagged to start the week. San Francisco hosts the Dolphins this week as almost two-touchdown favorites. And who could blame the oddsmakers, as last week the 49ers put on a performance as the underdogs, allowing only seven points and generating two turnovers. In that game versus the Rams, one of the two teams’ defenses was rostered in 99% of fantasy leagues, and it wasn’t the winning one. Going up against an offense such as Los Angeles and holding the Blake Corum/Kyren Williams duo to under 100 yards rushing combined, in addition to holding the tandem of Puka Nacua/Davante Adams to only 100 yards total receiving combined? I know it’s just one week, but color me impressed. Now they get to host Miami, who, by the way, have 7 of their 8 highest-paid players on their payroll playing for a different team. In Week 1, the team’s leading rusher was their quarterback, as Malik Willis scrambled for a couple more rushing yards (39) than running back De’Von Achane (36).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opponent: vs. Cleveland Browns
ESPN % Rostered: 13%
Yahoo % Rostered: 5%
Speaking of impressive, how about fumbling the ball over four times and still taking the game all the way down to the final two minutes. Despite the four setbacks, Tampa Bay’s defense still held wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase to 12 yards on four targets and the rushing game around 100 yards total to keep them in it. Now they will host the Browns, who just got the brakes beat off of them by the Jaguars. The Buccaneers come into this one as the favorites by more than a touchdown. Cleveland turned the ball over twice in week one while getting sacked five times on the day. They failed to eclipse 100 yards rushing as a team and barely cracked the 200-yard mark in the passing game.
Kansas City Chiefs
Opponent: vs. Indianapolis Colts
ESPN % Rostered: 35%
Yahoo % Rostered: 13%
Another fun fact: at QBList we try to use each team’s official hex code for team colors. You’re not crazy; that is three different shades of red used for each team listed here! Kansas City opened up their week one game with a bunch of question marks and answered just about every one of them with an exclamation mark in the end. Questions in the secondary were answered by holding their division rival to just 131 passing yards and 10 points while coming away with two turnovers and four sacks. Denver was held to just 61 yards on the ground and had zero pass plays go for 20+ yards all night. The Chiefs now host the Colts, who were exposed in Week 1 by the immortal Derrick Henry. In that game, quarterback Daniel Jones was held under 170 yards passing despite throwing it 31 times. It would be a shame for the Colts if they faced another running back that went for 150+ yards in week one. Oh wait… that’s Kenneth Walker‘s music.
After the Cut
Green Bay Packers (E:15% Y!:16%) – Despite the memes, Green Bay still generated three sacks and a turnover while keeping the Vikings’ passing attack to 150 yards total. Now they will face Bennie Geno Smith and the Jets this week. What could possibly go wrong?
If you see something I don’t, leave a comment here or hit me up with feedback on Reddit!
Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) / Photography by Robin Alam/ Icon Sportswire