Welcome to Week 4! We’re here to try to get past the chaos of week three and look forward to seeing which teams on the wire give us a shot at taking the win for this week. So far, the underdog is at a .500 winning percentage straight up as this wild start to the season continues. Last week, it turned out that it does matter who is starting at quarterback against the Raiders and that the Buccaneers had a much better performance against a playoff team on the road than they did last week at home to what had been one of the worst performing offenses. All was not upended, however, as the Packers stuffed the box score against their backup quarterback’s former team.
This week, the pickings are a little slimmer in what we have available to us. Around the 50% mark and lower this week are teams with question marks on defense but have what should be (at least on paper) a solid matchup to get right in week four.
Please note: there’s a decent chance that better teams above this 50 percent threshold are available in your league, but we can’t assume they’re out there for everyone. We have to draw the proverbial line somewhere, so stay active and monitor the league home page; someone might drop a desirable defense after waivers clear.
Miami Dolphins
Opponent: vs. Tennessee Titans
ESPN % Rostered: 50%
Yahoo % Rostered: 48%
While not a flashy pick, Miami has put up two respectable box scores in fantasy when playing teams that aren’t the #1 scoring offense in all of football from the city of Buffalo. The Dolphins put in a two-interception and three-sack performance last week while maintaining a top-10 blitz rate in the NFL this season. However, as we alluded to in the introduction, it’s the matchup we’re diving into, and Miami is hosting a Tennessee team that is bottom five in total offense and scoring. Right now, the Titans are the #1 offense to start a defense against in fantasy. They are averaging 2.5 turnovers per game; they have given up 15 sacks in just three weeks, including a whopping eight last week alone! If nothing else, turnover machine Will Levis and company lead the league in giveaways to the opposing team, including three for touchdowns. Miami is one of the least thrown-against teams in the league, and I believe the turnover trend will continue in this night game. The Dolphins travel to division rival New England next week and could be a potential hold as well.
Chicago Bears
Opponent: vs. Los Angeles Rams
ESPN % Rostered: 37%
Yahoo % Rostered: 55%
Chicago remains a top-5 fantasy defense heading into Week 4. While it hasn’t been pretty after Week 1, it has still been at least five or more fantasy points in those games. Now they will host a Rams team that is already so banged up that they have more players on injured reserve than they can designate to return on the season. This week, Los Angeles will be without key personnel on offense from both the offensive line and receiving weapons like Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. The Bears come into this game with seven sacks on the season and an average of two turnovers generated per game so far. Matthew Stafford has been sacked multiple times each week for an average of just north of three per game. The Bears are a top-5 defense in QB hurries, as they are pressuring the quarterback on about 31% of every dropback the other team takes. With the sacks and turnovers looking favorable, I like the Bears to continue being a top-10 defense in total yards allowed after this game. Keep an eye out, as the Bears will host Carolina after this game.
Las Vegas Raiders
Opponent: vs. Cleveland Browns
ESPN % Rostered: 30%
Yahoo % Rostered: 41%
Yes, I know, we just got burned by the red rifle himself, Andy Dalton picking this defense. But hear me out on this one: Cleveland’s offensive line is down really bad. They are ravaged with injuries across the front, and it showed last week with the Giants getting home for eight sacks in one game! Now, the Browns are reported to be looking to sign free-agent talent off the street for the offensive line, and it is only Week 4. After the public chewing out the Raiders head coach gave his team following their absolute dud last week, I am looking for a more inspired effort this time around. Las Vegas has the third-highest blitz rate in the league, and I am looking for them to continue sending the house after the quarterback in this one to overwhelm an offensive line that is less than 100% healthy. More pressure leads to more sacks and more mistakes. This should be a great chance for the Raiders to get right defensively.
Honorable Mentions
Kansas City Chiefs (E:49% Y!:85%) – ESPN leagues might want to look around and check in to see about the Chiefs as they take on their division rival Chargers, who might not have their star QB for this one.
Houston Texans (E:31% Y!:55%) – After getting shaken on the road, Houston gets back home to face a weary Jaguars team that is looking so bad that their head coach is threatening some serious roster shake-ups.
Green Bay Packers (E:23% Y!:31%) – The second-best defense in fantasy heads home to host their division rival, the red-hot Vikings.
If you see something I don’t, leave a comment or hit me up with feedback @MikeoftheFF on Twitter or find me on Reddit!
Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) / Photography by David Rosenblum / Icon Sportswire