Welcome to Week 4! We enter this week with the fresh memory of the Monday night football game, which gave us a stern reminder that one cannot simply stop 38-year-old Case Keenum, you can merely only hope to contain him. Fun fact: prior to last week, the last time Keenum took a snap was back in 2023. This past week in my thirteen-year fantasy league, I lost by three points with Jalen Hurts as my quarterback. I watched him march the team down inside the red zone only to have to sit out a few plays for an injury concern and proceed to watch Andy Dalton come in, throw an interception, refuse to elaborate, and then disappear back to the bench for the rest of the night with the look of “my job here is done”. Classic Dalton. Philadelphia was on the opponent’s two-yard line last night, which normally would be a very high probability for Hurts to come away with points, but instead I lost the week by three.
I tell this story because I feel it is an apt metaphor for the D/ST position last week. I remember watching the scores screen on Sunday with the same look in my eyes that Colston Loveland managers had as they frantically refreshed the stat box while falling to their knees, asking themselves why. It was a bloodbath punctuated by the Bengals and Packers absolutely going full wheels-off on defense. I take accountability for this article. I simply missed, and that’s on me. I saw the stats on paper, and I moved forward thinking they were solid picks. I was not alone in the Green Bay Thursday night debacle; several rankers outside of myself had them as a top 10 pick. As for Cincinnati, my hubris led me to forget a lesson that history has repeatedly taught us. The Bengals are referred to as “the bungles” for a reason. Every time they get hot and lure you in to feel confident relying on them, that is the precise moment when they turn on you and crush your hopes. At least the Giants delivered a solid box score for us, salvaging the day, but at what cost?
Some fun tidbits from the week:
Listening to the Subway employee read your order back to you.
This week features a couple of good matchups that, unfortunately, fall just outside the parameters of the feature section. I encourage you to check the After the Cut section and double-check your league to see if those teams happen to be available on your waivers. As for what remains with the self-set threshold of this article, let’s see what we got in around 50 percent of leagues or fewer.
Please note that there’s a decent chance that better teams above this 50 percent threshold are available in your league, but we can’t assume they’re available to everyone. We have to draw the proverbial line somewhere, so stay active and monitor the league home page; someone might drop a desirable defense after waivers clear.
Chicago Bears
Opponent: vs. New York Jets
ESPN % Rostered: 8%
Yahoo % Rostered: 9%
Coming off holding Philadelphia to just seven points last week, the Bears will host the Jets this week. New York comes into this one as a bottom-10 team in rushing yards per game and is now facing the increased likelihood that Breece Hall will miss this game. They now have had back-to-back games where they failed to get a single rusher over 35 yards on the ground. Meanwhile, Chicago comes into this one on a back-to-back streak of their own, allowing single-digit points scored against. They sit as the third-best team in takeaways this season with six turnovers through three games. The Jets have given up nine sacks in their past two games as the team is forced to be one-dimensional, falling behind with a weak rushing attack and leaving them no choice but to drop back seemingly every down just to keep up. The offensive line being exposed like this, compounded with the hit to their running game, leaves the Bears in a strong position defensively this week with their eighth-highest pass rush win rate in the league.
Buffalo Bills
Opponent: vs. New England Patriots
ESPN % Rostered: 8%
Yahoo % Rostered: 25%
Buffalo’s defense is predicated on getting to the quarterback with the current sack leader, Greg Rousseau, on pace for a crazy 34-sack season as he’s hit paydirt twice in every game the Bills have played so far. This bodes well as they host their division rival and sandwich artist Drake Maye with his league-leading six interceptions on the season. It also helps that Maye has been sacked three times in each of their three games so far. New England is giving up the third-most fantasy points to opposing defenses through three games. The Bills have held the last two opposing running backs to under 60 rushing yards each, which includes Jahmyr Gibbs. This is probably correlated to the fact that Buffalo’s quarterback seems to score at will, forcing opponents into throwing the ball early and often to keep up. By the way, did I mention Maye leads the league in interceptions? I feel like this is an important combination we have brewing here. Besides, it’s not like picking a division rival game that looks great on paper can blow up in my face twice in a row, right?
Green Bay Packers
Opponent: @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
ESPN % Rostered: 19%
Yahoo % Rostered: 32%
Yeah, I know. I got that same feeling in my stomach when I wrote this team’s name down as well. To be honest, I think both defenses in this game could perform as I list the Buccaneers in the After the Cut section. Both offenses in this matchup look completely lost. I tipped towards the one facing the backup quarterback, as the current sacks-taken leader, Baker Mayfield, will miss this game as he is listed week to week with an injury. Backup Jalon Daniels will take over as Mayfield is out “for a minimum of three weeks”, according to the head coach. Daniels limited time taking over went 0 for 3 with an interception last week for his first career NFL action. Green Bay has looked great defensively on the road this season, so perhaps it will help this week as they look to get back on track to the previous 3.5 sacks per game rate before that stat took a hit after registering a zero last week at home. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is surrendering an average of more than four sacks per game. They have turned the ball over seven times this season, and even if you take away the two touchdowns opposing defenses have scored on them, they still have given up double-digit fantasy points to opposing defenses twice this year. For as much as the Packers defense has looked like Swiss cheese, this should be mitigated by the Buccaneers’ absurd turnover margin and the fact they are a bottom-ten offense in total yards per game. Caveat emptor, this is a classic matchup of movable object meets stoppable force.
After the Cut
Baltimore Ravens (E:73% Y!:61%) – Ravens host a bottom-ten fantasy offense in the Titans as the ‘Titanwatch’ of stream whoever plays against Tennessee seems to continue over from last year into this year.
Minnesota Vikings (E:47% Y!:81%) – This defensive unit is rendering opposing offenses more inert than their own team’s, which is saying something. 14 sacks and 6 turnovers through three games is something ESPN managers should be looking to roster.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (E:25% Y!:14%) – Defenses streaming against the Packers so far have been averaging around 6.5 fantasy points per game for deeper leagues to consider.
San Francisco 49ers (E:75% Y!:64%) – After a hiccup last week against their division rival, they will host the Broncos and their fifth-worst 275 total yards per game average.
If you see something I don’t, leave a comment here or hit me up with feedback on Reddit!
Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) / Photography by Melissa Tamez/ Icon Sportswire