Welcome to Week 6! Last week saw an overall decline in average fantasy points for DSTs as a bit of a regression to the mean occurred when comparing the opening few weeks to past seasons. Before last weekend, we had been seeing a higher uptick in average fantasy points to DSTs this year. Just like managers who started the Colts last week had in their box score with double-digit points! In addition to that, we saw solid streaming performances from the DST of the Cardinals and the Browns to cap out the week for us. This week features some favorable matchups for the defenses that are rostered in a majority of leagues, which leaves us with a shallow pool of potential DSTs around 50 percent of leagues or fewer that do not come with a question mark in regards to their game.
Please note that there’s a decent chance that better teams above this 50 percent threshold are available in your league, but we can’t assume they’re available to everyone. We have to draw the proverbial line somewhere, so stay active and monitor the league home page; someone might drop a desirable defense after waivers clear.
Green Bay Packers
Opponent: vs. Cincinnati Bengals
ESPN % Rostered: 46%
Yahoo % Rostered: 48%
The Packers have been a standout defense in terms of actual football play, but so far have come up short in fantasy expectations this season. Green Bay is now coming off their bye week and hosting the bottom-ranked opposing offense in fantasy, as the Bengals are averaging around 17 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over their last three games. The Bengals just made a trade for Joe Flacco to be their starting QB. Flacco has struggled mightily under pressure the past two seasons and will now be behind one of the league’s most porous offensive lines. While the Packers have had their bye week early on, which skews some of the statistics, they still are a top-five defense in both rushing and passing yards allowed per attempt. Couple that with the league’s fifth-best QB Pressure Rating, and it looks very favorable against an offense that has turned the ball over 11 times in their last four games.
Los Angeles Rams
Opponent: @ Baltimore Ravens
ESPN % Rostered: 48%
Yahoo % Rostered: 53%
The Ravens were another team that was ambushed with questions about their starting quarterback to open this week of practice. Coach Harbaugh was non-committal on who would be under center for this game. This does include Lamar Jackson, who is listed as questionable to start the week, but I am leaning on the prognosis of multiple medical opinions last week that his hamstring injury would keep him sidelined for at least an additional week, including this game. If he were to make a surprising start this week, this would lower my ranking of Los Angeles, as we were all witnesses to just how much this Baltimore offense leans on Jackson. Last week, the Ravens surrendered double-digit fantasy points to their opponents when Cooper Rush got the start and the three interceptions he threw. Baltimore is a bottom-five defense in yards allowed, so coupling that with a weakened offense means theoretically they should struggle in keeping the Rams offense off the field, which should lead to lower points allowed and fewer yards gained against Los Angeles. The Rams also have the third-highest sack count to highlight their top ten QB Pressure Rating rank, which should work well against a backup quarterback.
Washington Commanders
Opponent: vs. Chicago Bears
ESPN % Rostered: 6%
Yahoo % Rostered: 12%
This is around where the hesitation starts to creep in for the remaining teams that qualify for this article. The Bears are coming into Northwest Stadium with an extra week to recover and prepare for this one. The history of these two teams is amped up after last season’s amazing Hail Mary finish. This time around, the Commanders are coming off a road victory where they racked up five sacks. Chicago is averaging 1.5 sacks and a turnover per game over their last four. Washington is tied for the seventh fewest rushing yards allowed per attempt, so look for them to force long down and distance where they can utilize their top ten blitz ranking and add to their sack totals, which is tied for third most in the league. Caleb Williams has been sacked seven times over his last four games.
After the Cut
Pittsburgh Steelers (74:% Y!:72%) – Pittsburgh has a favorable home game coming off their bye week against a division opponent. Check to see if they were dropped in your league.
Indianapolis Colts (E:60% Y!:48%) – Arizona has given up back-to-back double-digit fantasy points to opposing defenses and now travels to face an Indianapolis defense that scored the second-highest fantasy points last week.
Tennessee Titans (E:1% Y!:1%) @ Las Vegas Raiders (E:1% Y!:4%) – This week in Titans watch, it’s worth mentioning these two bottom ten fantasy defenses are facing the top two best offenses to stream a defense against this season; each other.
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Feature image by Michael Packard (@CollectingPack on Twitter) / Photography by Matthew Pearce / Icon Sportswire