Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow, LSU
Heading into the 2019 college football season, LSU’s second-year starter Joe Burrow was considered a mid-round NFL draft prospect, leading a talented supporting cast. Half a year later he’s considered the consensus number one overall selection. Burrow completed a staggering offensive season by bringing a national title home to Baton Rouge. The Heisman winner set all-time college football records with 60 passing touchdowns and 65 total touchdowns and a 202 passing efficiency. Burrow’s 76% completion percentage was second all-time and he finished third with 5671 passing yards. Burrow heads into the draft process with everything to lose and little to gain, with the hope he can keep his momentum going forward.
Fantasy Outlook
The biggest knock on Burrow is that he’s only done it for one year, skyrocketing up the draft board with an incredible season. Scouts point to his arm strength, questioning if he can make all the throws required at the next level. Personally, neither would worry me as a fantasy owner. What he has shown is he has the ability to master an offense, effortlessly navigating his reads and delivering a catchable ball with accuracy and timing that cannot be coached. He has a natural feel for the position and an almost uncanny ability to detect pressure in the pocket. Add to this his strong frame, durability, and sneaky athleticism, and Burrow has all the signs of an elite passer at the next level.
What to Watch for
It wouldn’t be a surprise if Burrow decides to sit out the passing drills at the combine, preferring to control the situation by throwing at his pro day or not at all. Again, Burrow can only lose draft stock, not gain. However, he looks to me like a fiery competitor, and I believe he may just lace them up and throw the ball in Indy.
Potential Landing Spots
With a strong final season Burrow is all but certain to be the first overall selection by the Cincinnati Bengals. If you hear analysts suggest that the Bengals are in talks to trade the pick don’t believe the hype. The Bengals have no intention of trading the pick, even if Burrow threatens a holdout. The Bengals are a draft risk-averse team and always have been. They don’t wheel and deal on draft day. They don’t trade away their first-round picks. They stand and make their pick and they will again.
Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
Tua Tagovailoa burst onto the college football scene in the second half of the 2017 National Championship against Georgia, where he threw an overtime touchdown to secure a championship for Alabama. Tua enjoyed a fantastic 2018, finishing second in the Heisman voting, and finishing with 3966 yards passing and 43 passing touchdowns. Tua was well on his way to another outstanding campaign in 2019 despite missing a game early in the year to an ankle sprain. However, Tagovailoa’s season came to a close when he suffered a gruesome hip dislocation that ended his season. Heading into the combine fans can expect constant speculation on Tua’s health.
Fantasy Outlook
Quarterback draft prospects don’t get much better than Tagovailoa. Injury concerns aside, Tua possesses elite traits in the pocket and athleticism to thrive in the league. Tua’s best traits are his accuracy and precision along with lightning-quick decision making. So much so that he’s drawn pre-draft comparisons to Drew Brees. Tua is an aggressive passer who doesn’t hesitate to threaten the defense downfield but can escape the pocket and make plays ala Russ Wilson. But perhaps the best parts of Tua’s game are his intangibles in the clutch and the way he leads his team.
What to Watch for
For Tua Tagovailoa everything will depend on his medicals. Nearly every team with a first-round pick will send medical staff to evaluate the young signal-caller. Tua has shown enough to evaluators on tape with multiple seasons of elite playmaking, and he is a strong leader so interviews should be a breeze. Fans may learn little this weekend as medical reports are kept pretty close to the vest for teams but draftniks will be scouring twitter for any reports we can find on Tua.
Potential Landing Spots
While it is unlikely that Washington selects Tua at number two overall, the draft position could be targeted by teams such as the New York Giants at four and the Miami Dolphins at five, as they look to jump ahead of Detroit at three. Tua won’t last past the sixth pick and the L.A. Chargers. Teams are desperate for star quarterbacks and the early reports on Tua are that he could make a full recovery.
Justin Herbert, Oregon
A four-year starter at Oregon, Justin Herbert has the tools and a skillset that veteran evaluators are salivating over. At 6’6” and 225 pounds, Herbert’s arm talent will immediately be among the best in the NFL. During his college career, Herbert has improved each year, and while he’s never produced elite numbers his weaknesses are with his leadership and competitiveness rather than his play.
Fantasy Outlook
It’s challenging to find a comparison for Herbert as he has a unique skill set. As a passer Herbert throws with incredible power and precision, places the ball well and is accurate all over the field. Yet he can also throw with touch, a skill that most QBs with cannons arms don’t possess. He’s as good a passer as we’ve seen in a draft prospect in several years. Combine this with his plus athleticism. Herbert has quickness and agility to escape the pocket and deceptive speed. He can eat up huge chunks of yards with his legs and can outrun opponents but is not an option quarterback. He prefers to make his living in the pocket. Think DeShaun Watson. With a combination of skills that physically are off the charts as a passer and runner, it’s easy to fall in love with Herbert and many teams will.
What to Watch for
By all reports, Herbert’s issues start and end with his personality. He is said to be a quiet leader, perhaps lacking competitiveness. That is the trait that sets the elite quarterbacks apart from the average ones. Many times we have seen the Brock Osweiler’s of the draft fizzle after you get past the physical traits. Herbert is certain to light up the combine drills but the important drill will be the team interviews we aren’t privy to.
Potential Landing Spots
Herbert is without a doubt a top ten selection in this year’s NFL draft. How high is really just a matter of who falls in love with his incredible upside the most. Don’t be shocked if Herbert goes as early as three to Detroit. No one really knows what Miami’s draft plan is. The Chargers need a new quarterback and a face to put fans in the seats. Then there is Carolina who has a new head coach and offensive coordinator. We may even hear chatter this week about teams looking to move up to select Herbert with Tua’s injury concerns and no fewer than six quarterback-needy teams picking in the first ten.
Jake Fromm, Georgia
Georgia junior Jake Fromm decided to declare for the draft one year early. Whether that is a sound decision remains to be seen. After a solid 2018 where Fromm showed improvement in nearly every category, he regressed in 2019. Critics point to his lack of receiving talent as the reason but he did have one of the stronger running attacks in the country this year. Fromm may have stood to gain quite a bit of draft stock had he came back for his senior year as he projects for a day two pick this season. However, we have seen plenty of quarterbacks vault up the draft board to desperate teams.
Fantasy Outlook
There isn’t anything special about Fromm’s game. While he can be accurate with good ball placement his lack of velocity on his throws will be exposed at the next level. He throws everything with touch because he cannot threaten defenders with his velocity, and defenders at the next level will expose that. He is able to succeed because he is natural in his progressions with good timing and is a sound decision-maker. Fromm finished his college career with an excellent 78/18 TD to INT ratio. However, with his glaring physical limitations, he projects as an ideal NFL backup QB.
What to Watch for
Fromm’s on-field workouts will be critical to his draft stock. He must show he can make the tough throws, the deep outs, without letting the ball hang. His mechanics will need to be sound and on point to stand out around the talent at the combine. Fromm has perhaps the most to gain from the workouts of any quarterback.
Potential Landing Spots
Many teams’ draft plans will clarify after the combine, as free agency starts in mid-March. With several free agents, many teams in need of a starting option and other teams looking to replace the incumbent, Fromm could find a starting gig in the second round. New England is almost certain to draft a QB prospect as are Las Vegas and Indianapolis.
Jordan Love, Utah State
While you may be unfamiliar with the name Jordan Love, you can be certain that NFL talent evaluators have heard of him. The 6’4” 225-pound junior is another early declaration but he has the talent and tools that teams tend to fall in love with. He comes with enormous risk but is this year’s quarterback that a coach will look at and say “I can fix that and he can be great.”
Fantasy Outlook
Love’s height and build are the classic prototypical profile for the position. He also has plus athleticism and mobility, and is accurate when on the run. While his play to play consistency needs improvement he does display incredible accuracy at times. He throws a nice deep ball and his arm strength is more than enough. However, his biggest issue as a passer is play-recognition and locking onto his first read. He’s more of see it and throw it guy rather than an anticipation thrower. While the consistency can be improved with mechanics and footwork, we’ve seen countless times that anticipation passing is what separates the good from the great. He reminds me of Blake Bortles with mobility. Regardless, Love will be starting for an NFL team within two years, he’s just that talented.
What to Watch for
It is likely that Love will light up the passing drills at the combine, flashing as the best thrower after Justin Herbert. We are certain to hear rumors of Love rising rapidly up the draft board. It will be interesting to see if he has cleaned up his mechanics heading into the most important week of his life. By all accounts, Love is a fiery competitor and we may see him at his best.
Potential Landing Spots
The Indianapolis Colts immediately come to mind as a landing spot for Love. He isn’t ready to play year one but the Colts have shown they have long-term plans for team building and a coach who can work with young quarterbacks. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Las Vegas Raiders are also intriguing options as both may be in the quarterback market and are known to like to window shop for talent.
-Marc Salazar (@dingwog)