The tight-end position in fantasy football is always a bit of a gamble. While some players might look like sure things on paper, it’s not uncommon for even highly drafted tight ends to fall short of expectations. Whether it’s because of injuries, changes in their team’s offense, or just plain underperforming, these busts can seriously throw a wrench into your fantasy season. As much as we love to talk about finding the next breakout star, avoiding the potential flops is sometimes more important, especially when talking about the onesie positions of tight end and quarterback.
We’re going to take a closer look at the tight ends who might not live up to the hype this season. As always, the term bust has a lot more to do with what you’re paying to acquire them than it does with a player not being a talented tight end. You may notice a trend when looking at the ADP of the players listed below. It’s all the fringe TE1, which tends to be a rotating group of players year after year.
Note: ADPs are taken from Sleeper as of August 15th.
Jake Ferguson (TE, DAL)
ADP 91/TE10 (My Ranking: 105th Overall)
Ferguson slipped into the TE1 conversation due to a massive workload, seeing 102 targets last season. He has a chance to see a similar workload this year. Ferguson’s upside is limited, though. While Ferguson’s consistent involvement makes him one of the “safer” picks at the position, his upside is somewhat capped. He’s not the type of player who will blow up for a week-winning performance, which will make his current ADP of TE10 close to his ceiling in 2024. If you’re hoping for those big, game-winning performances, you might need to look elsewhere. Ferguson is more of a high-floor, low-ceiling player. He would be a better fit for rounds ten and later, and until he gets there, he gets the dreaded “Bust” tag from me.
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
ADP 111/TE12 (My Ranking: 111th Overall)
Goedert has solidified his place just outside the elite tier of tight ends in the league, consistently hovering around that top tier but never quite breaking through. He’s essentially Dalton Schultz with better marketing – a reliable but unspectacular option who does his job week in and week out as long as he’s healthy. Health is a major concern for Goedert, who has never played an entire season or a full complement of snaps. He should be drafted outside the TE1 range in 2024 primarily because of his competition for targets. The Eagles have made it clear they are looking for an answer in the WR3 position for their roster, and the confidence seems to be fading in the aging Goedert.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, MIN)
ADP 117/TE13 (My Ranking: 137th Overall)
Hockenson tore both his ACL and MCL last season. He is an excellent IR stash for leagues that allow it. That is if, and only if, he falls into the TE20 range. When healthy, Hockenson is a top-ten tight end talent. The only other question is what Sam Darnold is going to provide as far as target quality in 2024. We now know that JJ McCarthy will not be a part of the equation, which saves Hockenson from a rookie signal caller whenever he does return to full health. The unfortunate part is we have never seen a competent version of Darnold in the NFL. At his TE13 price tag, there are a few too many concerns for you to be investing in him before round ten.
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire
Adapted by Kurt Wasemiller (@kurtwasemiller on Twitter / @kurt_player02 on Instagram)