Week 11 Player Props

The best picks from this week's player props.

It’s yet another week of player props, everyone! We are well past the halfway point of the season and the trade deadline. The playoff races are going to be nuts! In the meantime, we’re going to reap the rewards of winning player props left and right.

 

Adam’s Betting Record: 28-30 (Please, please let me get back to .500 this week!)

 

Jalen Hurts OVER 47.5 Rushing Yards (DK, -115)

 

On Fanduel: Jalen Hurts OVER 46.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

I think the Eagles are going to lean on the run game against the Saints, regardless of whether Miles Sanders ends up playing. The Eagles are going to do a whole lot of handing the ball off until it stops working, and the last few weeks, it’s been working quite well.

Additionally, Hurts really hasn’t had to do a whole lot in the last few weeks, now that the ball is being handed off more often:

Jalen Hurts Game Log
Note: Sanders went down with an injury after the Las Vegas game.
As a result of the increased focus on the rushing attack, Hurts has really churned up yardage on the ground, picking up chunks when needed and picking up his completion percentage by several points in the process. His average rushing yardage has picked up significantly since the Eagles converted to a rush-heavy attack.

One problem: The Saints simply don’t give up rushing yards. They’re h*cking good at stopping the run, ranking as the best rushing defense by DVOA, rushing yards allowed to RBs, and ESPN’s Run Stop Win Rate. I’m just not sure how the Eagles’ rejuvenated rushing attack is going to fare against this uber-elite run defense.

One sign of optimism: The Saints give up a modest amount of yardage to the QB position, ranking only 12th-best at limiting QB rushing yardage. It’s not great, but it’s better than being the best at limiting RB rushing yardage.

Also consider: Jalen Hurts UNDER 207.5 Passing Yards (DK, -115)

 

Joe Flacco UNDER 228.5 Passing Yards (DK, -115)

 

On Fanduel: Joe Flacco UNDER 227.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Listen, I hate to bet against an elite QB like Joe Flacco, but it’s his first game of the season and he’s 36 years old. He played in all f 5 games last year and averaged 152 passing yards per game.

I just really don’t think Flacco is going to suddenly toss 229 passing yards, even against the D0lphins. Prove me wrong, QB1!

Also consider: Joe Flacco UNDER 1.5 Passing TDs (DK, -165)

 

Nick Chubb OVER 88.5 Rushing Yards (DK, -115)

 

On Fanduel: Nick Chubb OVER 88.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Nick Chubb, assuming he gets a full(ish) workload, is going to punish the Detroit Lions on the ground and surpass the 88.5-yard mark. The Lions rank favorably for opposing RBs in pretty much every stat you can think of (the exact opposite of the Saints):

More good news: the Browns should have the ball a lot, which should mean plenty of rushing opportunities for Chubb. The Lions will be starting their backup QB, Tim Boyle, for the first time this season after Jared Goff picked up an oblique injury last week. As much as I’m rooting for Mr. Boyle to figure it out under center, his 3 career pass completions and 4 career passing attempts really don’t do much for me and they certainly won’t do much for the Lions’ putrid offense (31st in offensive DVOA!).

My main concern is that this game gets out of hand quickly, which ultimately reduces Chubb’s workload to a handful of carries in the first half. The Browns’ offense isn’t exactly a quick-scoring group, but their defense is sure to force a turnover or two and give their offense some short fields to score on. And, with Chubb just recently being reactivated off of the COVID list, it’s hard to see the Browns handing the ball off to him 20+ times when they likely won’t have a ton of trouble winning without him.

Also consider: Baker Mayfield OVER 6.5 Rushing Yards (or, if there’s a D’Ernest Johnson prop, look into that)

 

Christian McCaffrey OVER 114.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (DK, -115)

 

On Fanduel: McCaffrey OVER 113.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)

McCaffrey should be featured quite heavily in the Cam Newton “revenge” game, enough that he beats the 114.5-yard mark. McCaffrey was back in full force against Arizona last week, going for 161 yards from scrimmage. Now, with another game under his belt and a full workload, McCaffrey should be able to pick up plenty of yardage against the Washington Football Team.

When McCaffrey is healthy, this kind of rushing/receiving total is too low. Let’s take a look at McCaffrey’s output this season when he’s been able to take the field at 100 percent:

Christian McCaffrey Game Log

Even against New Orleans’ top-ranked rushing defense, McCaffrey still cruised to 137 rushing and receiving yards. As long as Cam Newton is looking his way for 6-7 targets, it’s going to be easy for McCaffrey to pick up the yardage through the air. Anything on the ground will basically be gravy.

Unfortunately, McCaffrey does have to play against a Washington defense that does an excellent job of stopping the run. Pick any overall run defense metric, it’s virtually guaranteed that the Football Team is rated pretty favorably:

  • 23rd in receiving yards allowed to running backs
  • 29th in rushing yards allowed to running backs
  • 6th in Run DVOA
  • 7th in Run Stop Win Rate

However, the Football Team did just lose Chase Young to a season-ending injury, and Young rated as the second-best run-defending edge defender in football. So, the Football Team may take a bit of a hit, but ultimately, McCaffrey likely will have a tough time finding running room against this defensive front.

McCaffrey will have to face a tough defensive front, but his workload and opportunities will ultimately work in his favor, and McCaffrey should be able to pick up more than 115 yards from scrimmage.

Also consider: McCaffrey OVER 46.5 Receiving Yards (DK, -120)

 

Photos by Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Doug Carlin (Follow @bdougals on Twitter)

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