All season, the staff at QB List are going to be picking out some of their favorite player prop bets for each game of the NFL season. Check in each week before games start to see our picks and (hopefully) see some solid advice! We’ll be keeping score as the season goes to check the accuracy of our bets.
Adam’s Betting Record: 14-16
GOOOOOOOD MORNING FOOTBALL FANS! Welcome to Week 5, where we still don’t know whether the Saints or Panthers are good, Urban Meyer’s coaching seat is so hot that his butt is burning, and the Cardinals are somehow the best team in the NFC West for the first time in a half-decade. Hopefully, Week 5 should bring us some more clarity on the Saints and Panthers.
Anyways, a fresh Thursday Night Football game means a fresh batch of player props. So, let’s get to it!
Zach Wilson OVER 1.5 Passing TDs (DK, +105)
On Fanduel: Zach Wilson OVER 1.5 Passing TDs, -114
Book it now: Zach Wilson is going off this week. He is facing a terrible defense, is coming off a big game against the Titans, and the Jets should somehow have a favorable game script against the Falcons, which will lead to some nice opportunities to score passing TDs.
Re: Terrible Defense – Atlanta
- 29th in Overall Defensive DVOA
- 28th in Passing DVOA Allowed
- 19th in sack rate
- 31st in Pass Rush Rating
- 23rd in Coverage Rating
So, I think Wilson will have a chance to build on his excellent performance from last week against a defense that isn’t really all that good at anything. They won’t be able to put much pressure on him, even though the Jets have an awful offensive line as well. Wilson now has both Jamison Crowder and Corey Davis at his disposal for the second consecutive week, so he should have his top receiving options.
The best part is, the Falcons, in addition to their not-so-good defense, have a pretty okay offense. It’s gotten some mixed results across 4 weeks, including a measly 6 points against the Eagles and 17 against the Giants but 25 against the Bucs and 30 against the Football Team. The Jets should absolutely be able to stay in this game, as their defense will be able to put good pressure on Matt Ryan and keep the Falcons from blowing them out.
The biggest issue I have with this game — which I touched on a little already — is that the Jets also have an awful offensive line. They have given up a lot of sacks and have forced Wilson to make some very subpar throws (4 INTs, anyone?). There’s always the possibility that Wilson is forced to run for his life this week and won’t get to make many red-zone throws. But, I think Wilson picked up a lot of confidence last week and should be able to carry over some of his performance from last week against the Titans into this week.
Also consider: Zach Wilson OVER 247.5 Passing Yards (DK, -115)
Jameis Winston UNDER 197.5 Passing Yards (DK, -115)
On Fanduel: Jameis Winston UNDER 200.5 Passing Yards, -113
I think Jameis Winston is going to toss for fewer than 204.5 yards this week because he hasn’t touched 200 yards in 3 of the last 4 games as a starter and the game script won’t favor much passing for the Saints this week, either.
The Saints haven’t asked Jameis to throw much this season, which is why he’s averaging just over 150 passing yards per game. And, it’s not like that’s the result of one bad game. Take a look at his game log from this season:
He just doesn’t throw the ball much at all. Alvin Kamara and the Saints’ run game has done its job, as has the defense. But, the Saints are apparently perfectly okay with letting Kamara and the Saints’ other playmakers do their thing on offense. I don’t see that changing this week, with the Saints visiting the Football Team in Landover. Even when the games are close, Winston hasn’t done much downfield throwing. Even in the game that went to overtime, Winston didn’t obliterate the 200-yard mark. So, I think this week is going to be more of the same, even with a subpar Football Team passing defense (29th in passing DVOA).
Also consider: Jameis Winston UNDER 17.5 completions (DK, +105)
Sam Darnold OVER 264.5 Passing Yards (DK, FanDuel, -115)
Sam Darnold? Against the Eagles’ defense that just gave up 278 passing yards, 5 TDs, and an 80% completion percentage to Patrick Mahomes? Come on, man!
Also consider: Sam Darnold OVER 287.5 Passing +Rushing Yards (DK, -115)
Davante Adams OVER 88.5 Receiving Yards (DK, FanDuel, -115)
Davante Adams is going to smash 88.5 receiving yards because he’s different:
Davante Adams said he was able to return to the game after his scary injury because he’s built different. Protect this man at all costs pic.twitter.com/oyBZJZPhfh
— packers clips (@packers_clips) September 27, 2021
But seriously, are we really pretending that the Bengals are going to be able to contain A-Rod and the Packers’ offense? I’m going to be honest, I’m not really sold on the Bengals’ 11th-ranked pass defense by DVOA or their 7th-ranked coverage (by PFF). They’ve played some pretty ‘mediocre’ offenses (Chicago, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville) and one solid offense (Minnesota) and I suspect that their highly-rated coverage numbers are being boosted by the low quality of the Bengals’ opponents.
Besides, no one can cover Davante-Freakin-Adams. He’s different. He’s also passed 89 receiving yards twice already this year, ending the San Francisco game with 132 receiving yards, 12 receptions, and 18 targets. Adams should be just fine this week in a high-scoring affair, with Vegas projecting this game to have a total of 50.5.
Also consider: Davante Adams Longest Catch OVER 26.5 Yards (DK, -115)
Davis Mills UNDER 189.5 Passing Yards (DK, FanDuel, -115)
One of the NFL’s worst QBs against a solid New England defense that recently destroyed a rookie QB… yeah, this one seems like another no-brainer.
Need more convincing? Here’s Davis Mills’ game log as a starter:
And, now he gets to face off against Bill Belichick and the defense that absolutely terrorized Zach Wilson into throwing 4 INTs a few weeks ago. FootballOutsiders projects New England to be the 4th-ranked defense in football this year, and that 4th-ranked defense should tee off on a Texans’ offense that hasn’t really done much since Week 1 against the Jags.
Also consider: Davis Mills UNDER 197.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-115)
Tony Pollard OVER 39.5 Rushing Yards (DK, FanDuel -115)
The Cowboys’ offense gets to take on a very porous Giants’ defense. How porous?
- 27th in Defensive DVOA
- 29th in Opponent Adjusted Line Yards
- 20th in Run Stop Win Rate
- 31st in Pass Rush Win Rate
- 22nd in Yards Allowed to RBs
So, pretty porous. Dallas should feast. Vegas seems to think so, too, projecting the spread of the game as Dallas -7. My guess is that Dallas covers that spread, preying on the Giants’ subpar defense and providing the occasional stop of Daniel Jones and the Giants’ offense. Once it is no longer in doubt that Dallas will win, I would expect Pollard to see increased opportunities for rushing yards. And, against an awful Giants’ rushing defense, Pollard should have plenty of room to run.
Zeke should also get plenty of rushing yardage this week, in case you were concerned.
Also consider: Tony Pollard OVER 54.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (DK, -115)