Another thin week at the waiver wire trough means we have to go even deeper to find some targets that will be available when acquisitions switch to First Come, First Served. This week, I’ll spotlight a handful of players who are quietly in the midst of a breakout but not quite popping onto fantasy radars, as well as a couple of guys returning from injured reserve to interesting spots in their offense. It’s likely the case that anyone detailed below will be someone to start immediately, but all of them have the potential to break into your lineups if circumstances break in their favor in the coming weeks.
AJ Barner | TE – SEA | 2% Rostered
I’ve been a bit hesitant to crank up the hype machine on AJ Barner, but it feels like the time is now. Barner has always profiled as more of a blocking Tight End who would struggle to earn consistent targets at the NFL level. His number of snaps has been solid throughout his young career as he’s been a valuable asset as an additional blocker. This year, somewhat suddenly, not only has he seen an uptick in playing time, but he’s now running routes at a rate equivalent to many receivers in the league. As Klint Kubiak pushes vertically more and more with Jaxon Smith-Njigba, this creates a void in the intermediate part of the field for Barner to eat coverage linebackers alive. He’s averaging a healthy 8.9 yards per target this season, and Barner is the first read in the progression on nearly 54% of his targets. His biggest strength is as a scoring threat when the team is in the red zone, where he’s tied for 2nd in the league with 3 end zone targets, and his reliable 87.5% catch rate has allowed him to secure 4 touchdowns this season. Barner’s 2 scores last week will put him on more fantasy radars this week than he otherwise would be, but I’d still be surprised to see him much past 10% rostered after this week’s waiver run.
Tyjae Spears | RB – TEN | 28 % Rostered
Hand up. A player on 28% of rosters is realistically a bit too popular to categorize as a “deep” waiver target, but considering that his ownership has decreased post-waivers, I think it’s important to highlight him. Tyjae Spears came back from his stint on IR in Week 5 and honestly returned with a bit of a whimper. He took the field on just 27% of plays and logged only 14 yards on just 4 carries. While that certainly isn’t anything to get excited about, it marks a distinct change for the Titans. Week 5 was the first point all season where Tony Pollard‘s snap share fell below 85% and if this was merely an on-ramp after a lengthy absence for Spears, it stands to reason that these two could be heading toward a more even split in the weeks to come. Not to mention the fact that the Titans are likely going to be trailing in more games than not, and Spears has shown to be the more capable option in the passing game. Even if you don’t subscribe to the idea that Spears will carve out a meaningful role for himself, Spears profiles as one of the best handcuffs available and should be rostered in more than a quarter of leagues.
Christian Watson | WR – GB | 6% Rostered
This is more of a PSA than anything. Christian Watson is eligible to return from IR this week after tearing his ACL last season. Unfortunately, the Packers’ receiving corps is one of the more crowded in all of the NFL, and it is unclear if he’ll be ramped up slowly at this point. What is clear is that Watson steps in as one of the more capable downfield and scoring threats in an offense that likes to push vertically and throw to the end zone. He’s obviously not without his own risk, be it the week-to-week volatility of his type of role or concerns of yet another injury rearing its ugly head, but a return to form for Watson would deliver significant value to fantasy managers willing to roll the dice. Watson should be added by any managers who have space on their bench and a strong enough resolve to ride the ebbs and flows that lead to paydirt.
Kenny Pickett | QB – LV | 0% Rostered
We’re going way deep with this one. Superflex or 16-team only type deep. The Las Vegas reunion tour between Geno Smith and Pete Carroll seems to be a failed, or failing, experiment through 5 weeks, and the culprit is the lack of ball security from Geno. Smith leads all quarterbacks with 9 interceptions, and his tendency to hold the ball has led to 16 sacks and 125 yards lost by being sacked. It seems a logical conclusion that the Raiders coaching staff, out of protection for their employment if nothing else, would look to the backup they traded for this offseason as a stabilizing force. Kenny Pickett is one of just two players in the last 30 years to be traded 3 times within his first 4 NFL seasons, so expectations for him should be curbed, but when he’s been allowed to start in the past, he’s shown decent ability as a game manager. If he does wrestle away the starting job, Pickett has no shortage of weapons at his disposal and a defense that should keep him dropping back to pass. It won’t be pretty, but that holds value in Super Flex and deep formats, making Pickett an interesting flyer for those in need.
Photo by Jordon Kelly | Adapted by Parker McDonald (@CarbonFoxGFX on Twitter/X)